Wednesday, November 30, 2005

France Weighs Immigration Controls After Riots

The French government Tuesday proposed tightening immigration controls to make it more difficult for foreign students and foreign-born relatives of French residents to enter the country. The plan was fueled by concern over unrest in immigrant neighborhoods, the scene recently of three weeks of street violence.

At the same time, the lower house of Parliament overwhelmingly approved new anti-terrorism laws that would allow increased video surveillance in public places and tougher monitoring of international travel by French citizens.

Several French political leaders have linked polygamy with the violence that struck more than 300 communities across France. Large families with multiple wives and numerous children foster poverty and lack of parental control over youths, the politicians said.

Polygamy is illegal in France, but the law has not been enforced among African and Arab immigrants who have imported the practice from their home countries.

The government's proposed law, which Villepin said would be submitted to Parliament next year, would make it more difficult for French residents and citizens to bring foreign spouses into the country and require longer waiting periods for legal immigrants to apply for visas for their spouses and children. Legal immigrants would be required to be able to speak French before family members could join them in France.

The new anti-terrorism measure, strengthening laws that are already among the toughest in Europe, passed the lower house 373 to 27.

Under the draft law, certain buildings, including department stores, mosques and synagogues, could be equipped with surveillance cameras. Aides to Sarkozy say he embraced the measure after seeing how effective video recordings had been in helping British authorities identify the subway bombers.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/29/AR2005112900295.html

Education in India: Quotas for Muslims in IITs and IIMs?

Not embarrassed by the judicial snub on an enhanced quota in Aligarh Muslim University, the HRD Ministry appears to be serious about reservation for Muslims in IITs and IIMs.
 

Barely had the HRD Ministry recovered from the setback of the Allahabad High Court decision on the minority status of Aligarh Muslim University (AMU), when Arjun Singh decided to wear his secularist heart on his sleeve yet again. By making appropriate politically correct statements about the National Monitoring Committee for Minorities' Education (NMCME), which has recommended reservation for Muslims in IITs and IIMs, he has set the stage for another round in the endless debate on appeasement.

If Singh decides to ignore another landmark judgement-the Andhra Pradesh High Court striking down 5 per cent reservation for Muslims introduced by the Y.S.R. Reddy Government in July this year-it may well unleash another genie that has refused to be bottled in the bitter communal politics of the nation since 1990.

NMCME RECOMMENDATIONS
Quotas for minorities, especially Muslims, in institutions of higher learning

Adequate number of minority students in ITIs and polytechnics to improve their technical skills, plus coaching for IITs

Setting up of a cell in All India Council for Technical Education, National Council for Teacher Education and CBSE to monitor induction of minorities

Modernisation of madarsas, with a central madarsa board being set up on the lines of the Kendriya Vidyalayas

This fresh round of potential hostilities began with a report of the NMCME last week. A brainchild of Singh who introduced this panel in his earlier tenure as HRD minister in 1992 to "monitor the ongoing schemes of the Ministry targeted at minorities", the NMCME went into a recession under the subsequent governments. Having been given a new life, it is clearly taking its job seriously. Re-constituted in September 2004, the standing committee of NMCME has made several recommendations which its chairman Zafar Ali Naqvi thinks are absolutely essential for the minorities. Naqvi, a former home minister of Uttar Pradesh, is virtually advocating a new charter for minorities encompassing the entire range of educational rights enshrined in Article 30(i) of the Constitution which details the minority "right to establish and administer educational institutions of their choice". Among these is the introduction of Urdu in all Central schools, Navodaya Vidyalayas and Aanganwadis. By far the most contentious recommendation pertains to reservation in institutions of higher learning. Not just because it takes reservation out of the ambit of caste into community which the Constitution did not visualise, but also because it creates a confrontation of viewpoints between Congress and its UPA ally-the Left. The Left has been ideologically opposed to community- based reservation and had welcomed the Allahabad High Court decision. The High Court not only struck down the 50 per cent reservation for Muslims introduced in AMU, but also nixed the Central university's minority status.

Even as Singh says he is considering the legal and administrative implications of the recommendations, it is clear that he is following his own so-called secular agenda. On the AMU decision, Singh's stand had been that a minority institution could take such decisions and it mattered little to him that Muslim students already constitute more than 65 per cent of the Central university. How it would lead to integration if the percentage rises further is difficult to fathom.

  PICTURE SPEAK
NEW DEMAND: Arjun Singh at the minority education panel meeting

What has caused widespread consternation this time is that the NMCME recommendations are specifically aimed at seats in the burgeoning technical education market. The IITs offer around 4,000 seats annually. Together with nits, the total number of seats at the very highest level of technical education are 10,000. Naqvi would like at least 1,000 seats reserved for Muslims to bring them at a par with other communities. In the case of other streams like management, forests and dentistry, the pie is much smaller. Naqvi wants a minority cell in all institutions like the All India Council for Technical Education (AICTE) which control the number of technical seats in the country. He has already won a battle by getting Singh's nod for bypassing state governments when minority institutions apply to AICTE for accreditation.

While debating reservation for Muslims, there also appears a need to closely examine their current status in higher education and employment. There is no clear empirical data-Naqvi says a research has been commissioned by NMCME-on the percentage of minority students in technical courses and higher government jobs. But the general consensus is that it cannot be more than 2-3 per cent. "The minorities have fallen so far behind that reservation at the highest level is no longer a desire but a necessity," says Naqvi. He feels that it can be introduced by recognising the backward castes amongst Muslims as part of the OBC cluster, as is done for SC/STs. But this proposal is fraught with its own problems. In Kerala, for instance, a 10 per cent quota for extremely backward Moplah Muslims has been in existence since 1926 which even the Left governments have not overturned. It has reportedly led to large-scale manipulation.

   AT ODDS
 

"There is need for affirmative action but it should be at the operative level."
IRFAN HABIB
HISTORIAN

There is a need for affirmative action but it should begin at the operative level of imbalance and not at the level of the IITs and IIMs, says eminent historian Irfan Habib who has been at the forefront of opposition to a quota in AMU. He feels there is a far greater need to correct social imbalance at the school and technical level than in IITs and IIMs. Both these institutions are very particular about their autonomy, as was evident in the previous HRD Ministry's disastrous attempts to change the fee structure. One IIM director told India Today on condition of anonymity that he would not appreciate reservation for particular communities.

Others are waiting for official communication on this. More than legality, the quality of students is on their minds. None of them objects to one of the recommendations-that coaching centres be affiliated to these institutions to prepare minority students for entrance exams. The HRD Ministry would do well to take that into consideration.

Spectacle Of Bigotry: The pre-martial sex controversy

The Khushboo imbroglio symbolises the lethal trend of political parties using cultural bigotry to achieve electoral ends. The attempt to curb free speech needs to be nipped now.

 
 
  PICTURE SPEAK
SAVAGE SHOW: A protest against the actor outside the court

Angry mobs throwing slippers, tomatoes and eggs at a beleaguered woman who dives for cover as she appears in a court for allegedly insulting the Tamil community. It was a scene that would have made the 18th century French philosopher Voltaire cry in disgust, "What a fuss about an omelette!" The woman in distress: Khushboo, the popular actor who was so loved by Tamil audiences that her fans even built a temple for her. But real life doesn't often work along a predictable script. Last week, as her effigies were being burnt outside, a court in Mettur granted her conditional bail after she surrendered before a judicial magistrate in connection with a defamation suit filed against her.


"She didn't defame anyone. Why did courts entertain the petitions?"

BRINDA KARAT, CPI(M) MP

 "You cannot curb a person's right to free speech and to express views."
P CHIDAMBARAM, FINANCE MINISTER

 "This hue and cry about her views is needless. We are with her."
GIRIJA VYAS, NCW CHAIRPERSON

 "It's sad that we are not prepared to accept a perfectly reasonable opinion."
AJAY DEVGAN. ACTOR
 "The message this is going to send out is 'stay quiet' and 'don't mess around'."
MAHESH BHATT, FILMMAKER
 "We should support her against bigots who are making an issue out of nothing."
RUPA GANGULY, ACTOR
 "Right to free speech can't be held to ransom by intolerant sections."
N. RAM, EDITOR, THE HINDU
 "They are using cultural policing for political ends. It won't work."
CHO RAMASWAMY, MP
 "Khushboo is just a soft target for a highly politicised issue."
SHOBHAA DE, AUTHOR & COLUMNIST
 "Sex is something we need to talk to youngsters about for their own good."
ARUNDHATI NAG, ACTOR
 "We don't have the right to bully someone or curb their freedom of speech."
AAMIR KHAN, ACTOR

As television audiences are haunted by the indelible images of a tearful Khushboo, the actor has every reason to be bewildered for it is yet a mystery who she defamed. Khushboo, it would seem, has been tried and sentenced by bigots as people looked on. All she said was that pre-marital sex was now an urban commonality and she found nothing wrong in it. She herself had lived with her man for two years before she married him. She was commenting in a column in India Today's Tamil edition (dated September 28, 2005) on the findings of the annual survey on changing sexual mores. She said, "No educated man would expect his wife to be a virgin."

As author Shobhaa De says, "Khushboo has said nothing that sex surveys don't regularly point out. She is neither suggesting anything promiscuous nor is she hinting at some wild sexual orgy." In fact, CPI(M) Politburo member and MP Brinda Karat questions the very admission of the cases by the courts. "It is unacceptable that the court should have, in the first place, admitted a petition against Khushboo's remarks. The court had no business to do so because what Khushboo did was express her views. The freedom of expression allows her the right to air her opinion and what's sad is that not a single individual seems to have come out in her support," says Karat.

Facts may support Khushboo but innuendos and fiction make for a better script. And controversy. The breaking news of her views came via a headline on Sun TV which is controlled by the Marans, nephews of DMK President M. Karunanidhi. Suddenly all hell broke loose. As if on cue the Tamil Protection Movement, the self-styled guardians of Tamil culture, took to the streets. The organisation-headed by S. Ramadoss, leader of DMK ally Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and father of Union Health Minister Anbumani, and Tirumavalavan, a leader of the Dalit Panthers of India-condemned the actor for "insulting the Tamil community as a whole and hurting Tamil women in particular".

Tabloids and the soundbite brigade followed suit. Tamil Murasu, the new evening newspaper of the DMK took over and questioned her right to speak about Tamil women. It didn't matter that she had made no reference to Tamil women. Truckloads of men and women, who did not even know what the issue was, agitated for TV cameras. Tirumavalavan insists that it was a spontaneous reaction but the truth, as Jaya TV showed, is that most people interviewed by them knew nothing about what was published. Agitations spread in all corners of Tamil Nadu, spearheaded by the "culture" protectionists, and defamation cases filed against the star in various courts of the state in spite of her breaking down before Jaya TV cameras and apologising to the Tamil people, asking their forgiveness if she had hurt them unintentionally.

Tamil Nadu, an emerging destination for high technology investments, suddenly showed the world its bizarre and ludicrous face. Morality became an obsession in the state. It would seem that the titillating masala mix videos that rock late night channel viewers and the concept of "chinna veedu" (bigamous second marriages) were from another planet. As filmmaker Mahesh Bhatt points out, "In a state where HIV-aids hovers like a menace, it is absurd that a celebrity like Khushboo who says things as they are about our sexual habits should be victimised and belittled. Everyone seemed to have some view on the issue but no group that mattered made any noise against the chauvinist bullies or pointed out that it was Khushboo's constitutional right to express her views whether you agreed with her or not."

  PICTURE SPEAK
BELEAGUERED GODDESS: Khushboo

But the voice of reason was silent, stifled with fear. Even the Film Actors Association distanced itself by instructing all its members to lie low. Its secretary, actor Sharath Kumar, a DMK MP says, "Since the matter was in the court we thought it was not right to make public statements about it."

Stars whose huge cutouts dot the Chennai skyline stayed mute spectators to this attack on a colleague. Chivalry, it seemed, was only for the screens, and patriarchal machismo that rules Kollywood screens came to haunt the streets. Indeed when actor Suhasini Mani Ratnam stood up for Khushboo she too was not spared. In a bold move Suhasini apologised to Khushboo on behalf of the Tamil people for the "barbaric attacks", drawing sharp criticism for insulting Tamil women. Angry people burnt her effigies and several cases were filed against her too for disturbing public order and speaking against Tamil culture. Worse, the film actors' association asked her for an explanation and she had to apologise.

None of the political parties-the left parties, the MDMK and the Democratic People's Alliance constituents, Congress, DMK and PMK-intervened. The Congress may be headed by a woman but its spokesperson Anand Sharma merely said, "Those are her (Khusbhoo's) views." No one was prepared to say anything because they did not want to antagonise the PMK. Surely there was a political agenda behind the agitations. Charuhasan, father of Suhasini and actor brother of film star Kamal Hasan, remarked, "I said on a TV channel that chastity attributed to women is a figment of male imagination. Why is it that nobody filed a suit against me?" They would have if any kind of political mileage could be gained out of it.

The genesis of the controversy is not in what Khushboo said but in the incestuous relationship between filmdom and politics in Tamil Nadu. It is widely believed that it all started with a quarrel between Khushboo and film director Thankar Bachan who is quoted as saying that he "depicts women in his films as they should be". Bachan is a member of the Tamil Protection Movement and is close to Tirumavalavan and Ramadoss. A few months ago, Bachan made some crude remarks about film actors-he stopped short of calling them prostitutes. Khushboo, with a few other female stars, including senior actor Manorama, made him tender a public apology. Khushboo's column was an opportunity to hit back.

There is also the peculiar situation of party-owned media outfits. The J. Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi battle has a queer echo in the electronic media where pro-DMK Sun TV is perpetually battling the pro-AIADMK Jaya TV. Beyond the propaganda war there is also the TRP war. Khushboo anchors a very popular TV show called the Jackpot, the rising TRP rate of which apparently made Sun TV uncomfortable. Also, Khushboo is reported to have annoyed Sun TV by refusing permission for it to telecast a show of hers staged in Singapore.

  PICTURE SPEAK
SEXCAPISM: Onscreen titillation does not seem to bother the culture police

At another level, DMK insiders reveal that Jayalalithaa was planning to induct Khushboo into politics and pit her against M.K. Stalin, Karunanidhi's son, in the coming assembly election. Khushboo, with her popularity with women, may have posed a tough challenge. She was clearly standing on a minefield. The moment was opportune to kill two birds with one stone-a blow to Jaya TV and to the rumoured moves of Jayalalithaa.

With the spectre of the election breathing down her neck, even Jayalalithaa did not come forward to support Khushboo. Worse, she said that Khushboo's view was unacceptable-not only because the concept of chastity as the true Tamil trait has been nurtured by Dravidian politicians into an emotive issue and whipped up as a political weapon, but also because the chief minister is careful not to offend the PMK, which may turn around and join her camp before the polls. The PMK, which has a strong Vanniyar support in the northern belt, is capable of deciding the victory of the lead partner, whether it is DMK or AIADMK.

   COLUMN | WHAT KHUSHBOO REALLY SAID

Chastity is Becoming Outdated

Women in Chennai were lagging behind Bangalore in expressing sexual desires. But Chennai women are now coming out of hibernation. I see a lot of women going out, in pubs and discos here. Women are able to talk about sex without inhibition. Given our conservative Indian backdrop, women are slowly coming out. But I do have questions about this women liberation when cases like Stefani's accident are happening (this girl was chased and killed by drunken youth after a night party in a Chennai hotel). But at the same time, I think sex education is a must in our schools. When the schools fail to teach sex, parents should educate their children about sex. In my opinion, sex is not only related to body; it's got a lot to do with our minds. I can't understand how some girls could change their boyfriends every Friday. When a girl is sure about her boyfriend she can tell her parents that she's going out with him. When the girl has a serious relationship the parents should also allow it. Our society should liberate itself from such ideas that the brides should all be virgins at the time of marriage. No educated man will expect his bride to be virgin at the time of marriage. But when indulging in pre-marital sex, the girl should guard herself against pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases.

I married a guy who I love. As we were sure about our relationship, we lived together even before marriage. Now it is six years since we got married. As we have two kids, our responsibilities have increased. As our children sleep in the same bedroom, my husband and me should find time for ourselves. But still our sex life is enjoyable. Married couples should be able to give each other happiness physically also. Satisfying each other is happiness. When they understand the other person's sexual desires, there won't be any problems in married life. Some couples make use of pornography to add spice to their sex lives. I don't see anything wrong with that. At the same time each one should understand the other person's likes and dislikes; comfort and discomfort levels. When women express their sexual desires they are looked down upon. This attitude should change. Sex is about two minds.

(As told to Peer Mohamed)
This guest column by Khushboo appeared on page No. 23 of INDIA TODAY's Tamil edition, issue dated September 28, 2005.

Thanks to factors of political expediency, the cult of culture policing has caught on. In their operations they are no different from those of the Muslim and Hindu fundamentalists. Or the narrow-minded parochial bigotry exhibited by organisations like the Shiv Sena. They have targeted English titles of Tamil films, ransacked the theatres and offices. They splashed black tar on English boards in the markets, accused women poets that dared to speak about their bodies as women of loose morals, unmindful of the obscene film songs written by male poets or the demeaning, glamourised depiction of the "chinna veedu" on big and small screen. Every move is with a political motive. For instance, Rajnikanth's problems with the PMK are well-known but the level of hostility can be gauged by the fact that when the Union health minister banned smoking onscreen few in Kollywood or Tamil Nadu doubted who the target was. It also spawns strange alliances. Ramadoss and Tirumavalavan, people knew, were strange bedfellows. The Vanniyar outfit of the former and the Dalit group of the latter have fought bitterly till a couple of years ago. Political expediency brought the two together. The rationale: a vacuum that pundits have predicted in the political leadership. Both see the DMK's dominance in Tamil politics waning and want to capitalise on it. Cho Ramaswamy, commentator, author, MP and editor of Tughlak, believes that "they have taken up culture policing with a view to emulate Karunanidhi who became popular with the anti-Hindi agitation". He says it is ridiculous because "times have changed. In an era of globalisation, no one is going to listen to your anti-English slogans".

It is ironic that the culture police call themselves the followers of Periyar, E.V. Ramaswamy Nayakar, the founder of the Self Respect Movement who had astonishingly radical views on women's issues. Periyar said, "The concept of female chastity is nothing but a conspiracy to keep women in bondage." So which truly Tamil culture are the protestors pretending to uphold. "If they agree that Sangam poetry (which portrays pre-marital and extramarital sex as normal) represented 2000-year-old Tamil ethos then what are they protesting against," asks Kanimozhi, Karunanidhi's daughter who has formed a forum for free expression with Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram's son Karthik.

India Today's Tamil edition wrote about teenage dating in Chennai and on unwed mothers in the rural areas 14 years ago. It was a Chennai doctor Dr. Sumathi Solomon who discovered the first case of aids in India. The disease is now a big threat to the country. "In a state that is facing a huge battle against aids we are still so hypocritical and are willing to indulge in slogan-mongering instead of tackling the real issues," says film director Mani Ratnam.

That an individual's opinion can be politicised and result in "incipient Talibanism" is a cause for alarm. The silence of the political parties that aspire to rule Tamil Nadu is more alarming. They may conveniently forget Voltaire's words, "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." It is left to the people, the real democratic forces to ring the alarm bell and stand firm against such cultural policing whatever the reasons for it.

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Former Bush Adviser Hubbard Calls Medicare Expansion 'Unwise'

Glenn Hubbard, former chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, says the Bush-backed expansion of Medicare to include prescription drugs was "unwise."

"The Medicare expansion without substantial reform of the system was unwise fiscal policy," Mr. Hubbard, now dean of Columbia University's business school, said in an online exchange sponsored by The Wall Street Journal.

"The current Social Security and Medicare systems are on an unsustainable path," Mr. Hubbard said in the exchange with Robert Reich, a Brandeis University professor who served as secretary of labor in the Clinton administration. "In both cases, sound fiscal reform should involve slower benefit growth for high-income households. In addition, fiscal reform for Medicare must be accompanied by reform of health-care markets."

In the exchange on fiscal policy, Mr. Reich criticized the Bush administration for proposing to make Mr. Bush's tax cuts permanent in light of new federal spending commitments. "Much of its new spending -- especially on national defense, homeland security, and Medicare prescription drugs, will go on for years. The drug benefit is a new entitlement. This isn't sustainable over the long haul and I don't think it's sustainable even over the next five years," he said.

See the full exchange, Guns, Butter and Retired Boomers: How Do We Pay for It All?, or vote and discuss the issues in WSJ.com's Question of the Day: In light of the federal budget deficit, was creation of the Medicare drug benefit a mistake?

Mr. Hubbard was chairman of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers from February 2001 until March 2003, where he advised President Bush on economic, tax and budget policy, international finance and health care, among other issues.

Enrollment for the Medicare prescription drug benefit began earlier this month and continues until May 15, 2006. The program itself begins Jan. 1. To participate, people must enroll in a private plan that will cover a portion of their prescription drug costs. Critics have described the program as much too complex, and recent surveys found potential beneficiaries wary.

Conservatives sympathetic to President Bush's agenda have complained that the legislation enlarged the federal government. Liberals have complained, among other things, that the legislation prevents the government from bargaining with drug companies to lower prices.

The rising cost of Medicare, both because of rising health care prices, a proliferation of new health technology and a growing number of elderly, is one of the major long-term fiscal issues facing the U.S. government.

Mr. Bush isn't expected to tackle government health-care spending in his upcoming budget, and his proposal to revamp Social Security is largely stalled. One option the White House is considering for next year is proposing a revenue-neutral overhaul of the tax code to increase economic growth and provide better incentives for private savings and investment.

Congress, meanwhile, is struggling to finish work on a modest deficit-reduction bill and the extension of tax cuts passed earlier in Mr. Bush's term that, without congressional action, would expire later this decade.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113327387791209059.html

 
 

Big Issues
Guns, Butter and Retired Boomers:
How Do We Pay for It All?
November 29, 2005

This is the first of three online debates that will look at some of the biggest issues weighing on American public policy. The federal budget deficit is the topic of this first installment. Joining the debate are Robert B. Reich, who was secretary of labor in the Clinton administration, and R. Glenn Hubbard, who served as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers for two years under President Bush. The debate will be moderated by David Wessel, the Journal's deputy bureau chief in Washington.

Readers also are invited to post comments in a reader discussion and vote on the Question of the Day.

MR. WESSEL begins the debate: Has the federal government bitten off more than it can chew by reducing tax rates at the beginning of President Bush's term and subsequently -- despite the costs of responding to 9-11, fighting the war in Iraq, rescuing and repairing New Orleans and environs and expanding Medicare to cover prescription drugs? Is current fiscal policy sustainable for the next three to five years, or is a major shift required?

* * *

MR. HUBBARD writes: The U.S. economy, with its strong underlying rate of productivity growth is in excellent shape, and it can absorb the tax changes, military and homeland security changes, and disaster relief. Two points are in order, though: More restraint is needed to ensure that domestic spending growth does not continue, and tax reform is needed to codify pro-growth policy that can raise the revenue required to fund the federal government.

JOIN THE DISCUSSION
 
Can the federal budget deficit be kept under control without a big change in tax or spending priorities? Or has the federal government bitten off more than it can chew? Join a reader discussion.

The problem is not the next three or even five years; the problem is the long-run fiscal picture. For example, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office tells us that in a generation, if we make no changes, we will spend about 10 percentage points of GDP more on Social Security and Medicare than we do today. To frame that, the Bush tax cuts amount to about 1 percent of GDP. And, to pay for this with tax increases would require raising taxes by about 50 percent across the board, crowding out economic growth. (Indeed, estimates from studies of tax policy and economic growth suggest that a tax increase of this magnitude would force us to give back the entire growth dividend we have received from the recent productivity boom.)

Having said this, the Medicare expansion without substantial reform of the system was unwise fiscal policy. The current Social Security and Medicare systems are on an unsustainable path. In both cases, sound fiscal reform should involve slower benefit growth for high-income households. In addition, fiscal reform for Medicare must be accompanied by reform of health-care markets.

The bottom line issue is less guns v. butter today (the next three to five years) than whether the butter will crowd out guns tomorrow (think the fiscal situations of continental Europe today) or indeed whether the butter itself will be affordable on the same terms tomorrow.

* * *

MR. REICH writes: Undoubtedly yes. But we should distinguish between deficits that occur when the economy has lots of unused capacity -- which was the case in the first two years of the Bush term -- and deficits that become part of the long-term structure of the federal budget. If the tax cuts and spending increases that occurred at the start of the administration were temporary and stayed temporary, there'd be little to complain about. In fact, they might have helped get the American economy moving. But the administration wants to make the tax cuts permanent. And much of its new spending -- especially on national defense, homeland security, and Medicare prescription drugs, will go on for years. The drug benefit is a new entitlement. This isn't sustainable over the long haul and I don't think it's sustainable even over the next five years.

MEET THE PARTICIPANTS
 
Robert B. Reich is professor of public policy at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley. He has served under three administrations, most recently as secretary of labor under President Bill Clinton, where he implemented the Family and Medical Leave Act, led a national fight against sweatshops in the U.S. and illegal child labor around the world, headed a successful effort to raise the minimum wage, secured worker's pensions, and launched job-training programs and school-to-work initiatives. Mr. Reich is co-founding editor of The American Prospect magazine, and his weekly commentaries on public radio's "Marketplace" are heard by nearly five million people. Mr. Reich received his B.A. from Dartmouth College, his M.A. from Oxford University, where he was a Rhodes Scholar, and his J.D. from Yale Law School.
R. Glenn Hubbard is dean of Columbia Business School and a professor of economics and finance at the university. From February 2001 until March 2003, he was chairman of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush, where he advised the president on economic, tax and budget policy, emerging market financial issues, international finance, health care, and the environment. He also chaired the Economic Policy Committee of the OECD. Mr. Hubbard received his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University in 1983, and has also taught at Northwestern, Harvard, and the University of Chicago.

While we're at it, let me make one additional distinction often left out of debates about the federal budget. There's a vast difference between tax cuts and spending increases that merely add to the nation's overall consumption, and tax cuts and spending increases that add to the nation's productive capacity. Most spending on education, basic research and development, the health care of our children, and infrastructure, for example, builds the nation's capacity to be productive in the future -- as long as it's well targeted. This kind of spending makes enormous sense. By contrast, it makes no sense for the House of Representatives to cut student loans, for example, while extending tax cuts that mostly benefit the wealthy and have shown to have nothing to do with improving long-term productivity.

* * *

MR. HUBBARD writes: I agree wholeheartedly with Bob that dividing the timeline of fiscal worries into two parts -- short-run and long-run is important. I also agree that we must distinguish between running deficits when the economy is not at full employment versus when it is (read now).

Tax cuts that add to the nation's productive capacity include reductions in the tax burden on saving and investment and reductions in marginal tax rates on entrepreneurial activity. Recent tax cuts have accomplished these, but added other tax cuts with much smaller effects on economic growth. The near-term tax debate should be about tax reform so that we can maximize the opportunity for pro-growth policy.

On the spending side, a strong case can be made for continued basic research support and support for individualized training programs. What often goes under the heading of investment -- highways, for example -- is a tougher case to make from an economic perspective.

Where Bob and I disagree regards his characterization of "tax cuts that mostly benefit the wealthy." Reductions in the taxation of saving and investment show up in current tax distribution analysis as benefiting savers -- generally well-to-do savers. Yet, over the long run, those tax changes raise capital accumulation, productivity, and wages. Economists generally believe that the best tax rate on capital income is zero (though there are some quite well respected economists who believe it should be negative!). It is hard to imagine what tax changes Bob has in mind that would add more to the nation's productive capacity.

* * *

MR. REICH writes: I'm not adverse to tax cuts on savings and investment, but in my view the growth we get from such tax cuts is far less than the growth we get from well-targeted public investments in education at all levels, on health care (especially for our young), infrastructure, and basic research and development. Relative to our needs, the nation is woefully behind in all these domains of public investment.

On the other hand, we're hardly suffering from a scarcity of financial capital. Indeed, the world seems to be enjoying something of a glut of it. Over the long term, capital flows to places around the world where it can get the highest return -- either because production is very inexpensive there, or because of natural resources located there, or (and here's where our future should come in) because people there are enormously productive. And they're productive because they have high skills, good health, good infrastructure linking them together, and an excellent scientific base from which to draw.

Obviously, we can't do it all. We can't extend the tax cuts and at the same time carry out all the public investments that are necessary -- while at the same time we fight wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, build up homeland security, give the middle class some relief from the Alternative Minimum Tax, and dole out Medicare drug benefits (not to mention the rest of Medicare) to early boomers. Deficits do matter, and choices do have to be made.

I'm skeptical of claims that continued tax cuts on capital gains and dividends have such a hugely positive effect on the economy that these should get priority of place in those choices. This recovery, for example, is weaker than the average post-World War II recovery, the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts notwithstanding. Indeed, those tax cuts appear to have been a major cause of our current budget deficit. So I see no reason to extend them. According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, the proposed 2-year extension of capital gains and dividend tax cuts would reduce revenues by $51 billion between 2006 and 2015. (Of course, if made permanent, much more.)

* * *

MR. WESSEL, Moderator, asks: On taxes, do either of you believe that a significant tax increase is either wise or inevitable either in President Bush's term or in the first term of his predecessor? If so, what tax and on whom?

And on spending, what one or two things would you have the government spend more -- a lot more -- on? And what one or two things would have the government spend less -- a lot less -- on?

* * *

MR. REICH writes: The president's former Secretary of the Treasury, Paul O'Neill, wrote that the White House's prevailing orthodoxy when he served seemed to be that "deficits don't matter." Apparently that's still the philosophy. I don't anticipate any concerted move by this administration to tame the deficit by proposing to Congress realistic spending cuts or tax increases unless bond markets get so rattled by the size of pending deficits that the White House is forced to come up with something. The best we can hope for is that a coalition of fiscally-responsible Republicans and Democrats on the Hill refuse to extend the temporary tax cuts of 2001 and 2003. That will still leave a fiscal mess for the president's successor, who will have to attack several things right away, starting with the ballooning costs of Medicare.

BIG ISSUES TO COME
 
Our second online debate, on corporate social responsibility, launches Dec. 5, and the third, on curing the nation's health-care ills, will launch Dec. 12. Responses will be published in a special Wall Street Journal Report coming in January.

What would I have the government spend more on, notwithstanding the above? Early-childhood education. The evidence is clear and compelling that these expenditures provide very large social returns, in terms of young people who subsequently finish high school, avoid teenage pregnancy, stay out of trouble with the law, and assume productive roles in society. I'd also have the government spend more on K through 12 in poor communities where classrooms now often contain 28 or more kids, are inadequately equipped, and are run by teachers without adequate training. I'd even be in favor of a progressive voucher system, where the amount of the voucher was inversely related to family income (I've proposed such a plan on the Journal's editorial page).

What spending to cut? Start with subsidies and tax breaks directed to specific companies and industries -- what's now commonly termed "corporate welfare." Depending on whose estimate you believe, it now runs between $60 billion and $120 billion annually. Last summer's energy bill was a cornucopia for the oil companies, for example. Why do they need it when their profits are soaring? Also, get rid of all earmarked spending on specific projects. It's pork. Look at the disgrace of last summer's highway bill if you want to see how irresponsible and wasteful such spending can be. We need a capital budget that establishes clear priorities for infrastructure spending. Medicare savings are possible by using case management techniques to focus on the relatively small percent of beneficiaries who are responsible for most of the costs. I'd also amend the new Medicare drug benefit to allow the government to use its huge bargaining power with pharmaceutical companies to push down costs. 

* * *

MR. HUBBARD writes: Let me echo Bob's call for a reduction in corporate subsidies and earmarked spending projects.

With due respect to Paul O'Neill, I never heard anything like "deficits don't matter" from administration officials, and certainly never from the President. At the same time, I think the administration is missing an important opportunity to talk with the American people about the enormous looming entitlement liabilities and the large implicit flow deficits (larger than the official deficit) that go with them. If we cannot bring these deficits (which conventional spending restraint and economic growth will not control) under control, we will have to raise taxes, with significant adverse consequences for economic growth.

I do not believe that a significant tax increase is wise or inevitable. In the context of my earlier remarks, I say this because I believe we should and will scale back the growth in the entitlement programs that are the clear and present fiscal danger.

I would like to see the government spend more on basic research and on training (because our employment policies are outdated) -- but these $$$ are not large in the context of the overall federal budget. While the discretionary budget offers opportunities for reductions, the real area for spending restraint is the entitlement programs.

Re: Bob's second reply: Blanket spending increases on health care, infrastructure, and education strike me as unwise. Our goal for health care should be to improve value -- this will require energizing markets (tax reform, insurance reform, Medicare administrative reform, litigation reform, and competition policy reform) before rethinking spending. The evidence on the effectiveness of infrastructure spending is, to put it mildly, mixed, as the evidence of CBO Doug Holtz-Eakin's work shows. Even with education, higher education in the US remains the envy of the world, while primary and secondary education lag; structural reform is a bigger deal here than a cry for more money.

There is substantial economic evidence that capital income taxes retard economic growth. Alan Auerbach and others have concluded, for example, that fundamental tax reform could raise household incomes by 9%.

* * *

MR. REICH writes: I'm not suggesting "blanket spending increases" on health care, infrastructure and education. To the contrary, I'm urging more and better-targeted spending in these vital areas. I've mentioned early childhood education and, for K-12, progressive vouchers whose value is inversely related to family income. We need a capital budget for infrastructure spending. As to health care, I'd recommend that the federal employee's health insurance system be made broadly accessible and affordable to all small businesses wishing to enroll their employees -- thereby giving the federal system far more bargaining leverage with providers and drug manufacturers, while at the same time enrolling a large portion of Americans currently without health care. This would be a first step toward a single-payer system.

As to entitlement spending, and contrary to what we've heard from the White House, Social Security isn't the biggest entitlement problem. It's Medicare. If nothing is done to constrain Medicare's costs, in two decades spending on it will surpass spending on Social Security. The reason Medicare spending is rising so quickly -- apart from the aging of the population -- is double-digit increases in annual health-care expenditures across the economy. So the key to containing Medicare is streamlining our whole health-care system. That's a big enough topic for a discussion all its own.

* * *

MR. HUBBARD writes: I couldn't agree with you more on Medicare being the more significant problem and that reform of health care markets is central. (Oprah moment:  John Cogan, Dan Kessler, and I offer a route to doing so in our new book "Healthy, Wealthy and Wise.")

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113320203715608216.html

Sprawl is threatening almost every stream in the country

That problem is pavement, and the way it has changed the ancient relationship between streams and rain. For most of human history, rain fell onto meadows, fields and forests, and sank slowly into the ground. In fact, most of the rain was intercepted by plants and tree leaves before it ever hit ground, and evaporated back into the air, eventually returning as rain again. (This is still the case in undeveloped areas -- a forest after heavy rainfall is a remarkably dry place.) The small amount of rain that did reach the ground sank slowly down through layers of soil and rock until it reached the underground water table. From there it flowed laterally and downhill, still underground, toward streams, where it seeped into the streambeds and recharged the waterways from below. During a heavy storm, some rainwater might flow downhill on the ground's surface, but that was the exception, not the rule.

Pavement has changed all that. Now, every time it rains, water that once would have been slowly absorbed into meadow or forest floor courses off roads and parking lots and roofs and into curb gutters and storm drains, which funnel it directly to the local creek, at a speed and a volume that, before development, a stream saw only during spectacular storms, the kind that occur once or twice a century. These storm-water surges, as they are called, work as giant routers, scouring out streambeds and banks, flushing away the dirt around the roots of trees along the stream banks, and washing away the small creatures that cling to stream rocks. Under this regular, relentless scouring, stream life is swept away, and the stream becomes little more than a biologically dead sluiceway.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/22/AR2005112202165.html

Gimme an Rx! Cheerleaders Pep Up Drug Sales

Known for their athleticism, postage-stamp skirts and persuasive enthusiasm, cheerleaders have many qualities the drug industry looks for in its sales force. Some keep their pompoms active, like Onya, a sculptured former college cheerleader. On Sundays she works the sidelines for the Washington Redskins. But weekdays find her urging gynecologists to prescribe a treatment for vaginal yeast infection.

Some industry critics view wholesomely sexy drug representatives as a variation on the seductive inducements like dinners, golf outings and speaking fees that pharmaceutical companies have dangled to sway doctors to their brands.

But now that federal crackdowns and the industry's self-policing have curtailed those gifts, simple one-on-one human rapport, with all its potentially uncomfortable consequences, has become more important. And in a crowded field of 90,000 drug representatives, where individual clients wield vast prescription-writing influence over patients' medication, who better than cheerleaders to sway the hearts of the nation's doctors, still mostly men.

"There's a saying that you'll never meet an ugly drug rep," said Dr. Thomas Carli of the University of Michigan.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/28/business/28cheer.html?incamp=article_popular_1&pagewanted=all

Diabetes: the latest wedding wrecker

By Kounteya Sinha/TNN

New Delhi: Sarita Anand (name changed), a research scientist with one of India’s leading pharma companies, hates the word “marriage”. Her wedding was called off by the bridegroom’s family not once but twice (in 2002 and 2004), hours before the wedding ceremony. Her crime: She is Type I Diabetic.
   What’s worse, in both cases Sarita had, in the matrimonial advertisements, clearly mentioned she was a diabetic. Twice bitten, she has now drowned herself in work, spending over 12 hours in the laboratory.
   This is not just a stray incident. Diabetes has started to wreck marriages. In some cases, it is also stalling them. In a shocking trend, both men and women, suffering from it are not finding a partner willing to marry them.
   Nearly 45 such cases have been reported to the Delhi Diabetic Association in the past one year. Sarita is just one of the victims whom The Times of India tracked down.
   Speaking to TOI, Sarita said: “For me, diabetes is just a condition. I live my life like any normal person. But our society thinks it is an infectious disease that could pass on to the next generation. I get nightmares when I think of what my parents went through.”
   In another case, TOI met Amit Saran (name changed), who spent lakhs on his daughter Preeti’s wedding in 2003. A year later, Preeti was diagnosed with Type I Diabetes. After months of verbal abuse, her in-laws sent her back to her father. Just a week ago, after learning that she was pregnant, Preeti’s husband decided to take her back with him.
   Sunit Batla, father of 24-year-old Vineet, faced a different kind of music. Because Vineet was diabetic, more than 11 women refused to get married to him. Sunit then went looking for a diabetic woman in Haryana for his son. Today, Vineet is happily married to Neeru. “It helps that both of us are diabetic. We understand each other’s problems.”
   Dr A K Jhingan, Delhi Diabetic Association president, says: “A large number of Type 1 Diabetics are facing matrimonial problems. This trend is becoming acute, especially because people don’t know about the disease and what it really is. We recently conducted a study to assess the magnitude of matrimonial problems faced by these people and how the prevailing social perceptions make their life miserable. Over 40 Type 1 Diabetic women, aged between 19 and 31, were interviewed. We found that only 7.5% are happily married as compared to 92.5% who faced matrimonial problems.”
   Health minister A Ramadoss told TOI: “India is home to around 40 million diabetics, the largest number in any one country. That’s why it is called the diabetic capital of the world. Nearly 12.5% of India’s urban population is diabetic while the number is over 4% in rural India.”

DAILY SHOTS NEEDED

Type 1 Diabetes is the second most common chronic disease in children after asthma. Those who suffer from it experience frequent urination, unusual thirst, especially for sweet drinks, extreme hunger, sudden, sometimes dramatic, weight loss, weakness, fatigue, blurred vision, irritability, nausea and vomiting.
   It is an auto-immune disease in which the immune system attacks the beta cells in the pancreas that make insulin. Thus, the pancreas does not make insulin, a hormone which helps turn blood sugar (glucose) into energy. The cells become starved of energy and there is an excess of glucose in the blood. People with Type 1 Diabetes must have daily injections of insulin to survive.
 

Monday, November 28, 2005

East-to-West Migration Remaking Europe

God bless the Irish.
--------------------

Since Latvia and nine other countries joined the European Union in May 2004, almost 450,000 people, most of them from the poorest fringes of the formerly communist east, have legally migrated west to the job-rich economies of Ireland, Britain and Sweden. Germany, France and other longtime E.U. members have kept the doors closed for now but promise to open them in coming years to satisfy the bloc's principle that citizens of all member states share the right to move to any other.

Perhaps nowhere is this feeling stronger than in Ireland, a country of 4 million people with one of Europe's fastest-growing economies and memories of how the world took in destitute Irish migrants in generations past. About 150,000 new workers -- mostly Poles, Lithuanians and Latvians -- have registered with the Irish government in the past 18 months, statistics show, although officials say that some may have already been there.

Citizens of E.U. countries do not need Irish visas or work permits, and there are no restrictions on how long they can stay or what work they can do. They are generally eligible for government health care and other services. There is no special system for them to seek citizenship.

From Dublin to Donegal, it is now difficult to find a construction site, factory, hotel or pub where some of the workers are not speaking Polish, Russian, Latvian or Lithuanian. They are changing the country's ethnic character. Multi-language newspapers cater to the job-seekers. Banks have hired tellers who speak their languages. East European grocery stores sell meats and cheeses from home, and phone companies post flyers in Internet cafes listing cheap calls to Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn.

The man Intel loves to hate

The remarkable story of a Mexican immigrant who wants to change the rules of the global semi-conductor business. By Charles Assisi


It’s tempting to imagine tough men don’t think much of guardian angels. Certainly not men like Hector Ruiz, the soft-spoken CEO of semi-conductor manufacturer AMD. But he does. And there is a good reason why. The impoverished Mexican from Piedras Negras, a town that borders Eagle Pass in Texas, came out of nowhere, challenged the rules in a ruthless business and eventually gave Intel, the industry leader, a bloody nose. After three decades of playing second fiddle, it took Ruiz barely four years to catalyse a war that now promises to be an epic one.
   But getting this far was never easy. The poor critter guarding Ruiz had to work awfully hard to keep the man going. When he first walked into AMD in 2000, the company was in a mess.
   The move met with raised brows in the business. Ruiz had just had a phenomenal run at Motorola for 22 years. When he rose to head the semi-conductor business at the company, he had an unenviable job on hand. Eventually, over three years, Ruiz gave 21,000 people the marching orders. His style generated resentment and the media dubbed him Hector the Dissector. Motorola survived. So did Ruiz. He was well on his way to the top job.
   The Turning Point
   What Ruiz didn’t know of was Jerry Sanders intentions. Mercurial and flamboyant, Sanders, a Silicon Valley legend co-founded AMD in 1969. The company survived Intel, the most dominant player in the business, by delivering chips that offered the same performance at a cheaper price. There was only one problem with this approach. It relied on replicating all that Intel did. AMD, however, couldn’t be faulted for not trying. It tried hard to innovate. But Sanders didn’t have a clue how to take the innovation to market.
   Then there was Sanders himself AMD had to contend with. The man who drove to work in a Rolls Royce kept the reins of the company tightly to himself. It earned AMD the ignominy of being named on Fortune magazine’s list of companies with the worst management board in corporate America.
   Precisely the reason why many wondered why did Sanders court Ruiz. They were as apart as chalk and cheese. But Sanders for all his flaws, was also a brilliant man. He knew AMD didn’t need somebody like him to lead it. It needed somebody sane; somebody who understood systems, appreciated innovation and motivated people; a man like Ruiz.
   Born into extreme poverty, Ruiz’s father didn’t have the wherewithal to summon medical help when his mother was expecting Hector.
   Finally, a kind doctor intervened and a grateful couple named their son after him. Because it was Christmas day, the devout Roman Catholic family chose de Jesus as his middle name. That was his first brush with an angel.
   As a 15-year old, Hector de Jesus Ruiz played in a local rock band and dreamt of growing to be an auto mechanic. The dream
drove him into Olive Givins
home. A local American missionary, she was looking for somebody to run the odd-errand and keep her house in order. Ruiz wanted the job. In return for which, he hoped, she would teach him English. Books on automobiles in his native Mexican weren’t easy to come by. The lady agreed.
It didn’t take her long to figure
she had a bright kid on her hands.
She suggested he go to school across the border. If that’s what it takes to be a mechanic, thought Ruiz, then so be it. Armed with $25 every month that Givin provided, Ruiz trekked across the border, daily. Eventually, he went to college and earned a doctorate in electrical engineering. He finally dedicated his thesis to Givin. That was his second brush with an angel.
   He then worked six years at Texas Instruments. Motorola followed, until Sanders weaned him away.
   The Ruiz way
   Those were the days when Intel was working on a new processor it called the Itanium. It differed significantly from the previous generation of processors that could deal with only 32 bits of information. The Itanium could do twice as much. Once Intel got there, Sanders knew AMD would wither away in a few years. Which is why, he tried to focus his efforts on getting there first. But his track record of successful implementations was an impediment. This is where Ruiz fitted in.
   Ruiz knew Sanders was right on the technology. But the problems were elsewhere. AMD wasn’t selling its products right. It focussed first on selling to retail users of desktop computers. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) who made laptops and servers that power backbone networks like the internet were not on its radar. This left Intel with a clear playing field. Among the first things Ruiz did was to turn AMD’s approach on its head.
   For a company used to a different pace, this was a shock. But Ruiz had learnt his lessons well
   from the days at Motorola where he was reviled for making tough decisions. He opened up new channels of communication across the rank and cadre of the company.
   Overnight, people from the company could meet the boss without an appointment. His photographic memory snapped up names and profiles of people as they walked in. He also did away with a weekly session his predecessor presided over—Breakfast with Jerry Sanders. Instead, he simply called it a breakfast meeting.
   Of course, his penchant for tough decisions hadn’t jaded. Soon after he moved in, the dot com boom went bust and technology went into a downward spiral. Ruiz responded by laying off 4,500 people and shutting down two factories.
   The worst was still to come. In 2002, the company hit its worst point. On revenues of $2.7 billion, it lost $1.3 billion. That didn’t deter Ruiz from ploughing an astounding 30% of revenues into research and development and acquiring two small chip companies.
   The ruthless persistence paid off when his engineers unveiled a new 64-bit chip for servers called Opteron in April 2003. A few months later the Athlon 64 for its more traditional desktop market followed. It met with rave reviews and found new takers like Microsoft, which was until that point, a traditional Intel ally.
   Thanks to some missteps on Intel’s part, its offering, the Itanium was trashed. Intel grudgingly conceded the round. For the first time, Intel started to work on a strategy similar to AMD’s.
   Early this year, Ruiz fired another salvo at Intel. He dragged it to court for u n l aw f u l bu s i n e s s p r a c t i c e s. The complaint alleges that Intel resorted to bribery and threats to keep virtually every PC manufacturer in the world from using AMD’s chips. If the courts rule in AMD’s favour, analysts reckon the industry will finally be on its way to be a duopoly. Since then, more successes followed.
Earlier in June, AMD finally convinced Hewlett-Packard and Acer to start shipping with processors powered by AMD. Until then, this was Intel country.
AMD now makes profits. But the overworked guardian angel still sees no respite. Intel is still 10 times larger than AMD. The war, for Ruiz, has only begun.

Bangalore Roads: Sponsored by Motocross Deve Gowda

We hear from sources that furious bidding is on for sponsorship of a certain stretch of K H Road, more commonly known as Double Road, in Bangalore. Among the strong contenders are: i) The Motocross Association of Shantinagar which claims that this portion of the road is ideally suited for daily contests to determine which vehicle rider can successfully negotiate the potholes and sandfills; ii) The Tyre-Sellers’ Association of Mavalli which has promised to build a place of worship in honour of the pothole deity; iii) The Practising Orthopaedics’ Forum of Bangalore which feels that this stretch has sent in the most patients in the September-December quarter and iv) The Driving School Instructors’ Association of Bangalore which says this is the best way for drivers to learn the art of negotiating potholes, but not lose your balance, mental and otherwise.
 
Musical chair in the middle of road

Last week, in the middle of the bustling Station Road in Hubli, some chairs were kept and a few grown-ups were busy playing musical chairs unmindful of the zipping vehicles. Passers-by stared at them, while drivers tried hard to avoid them. The curious wanted to know what they were up to. The game was up then. The few who were disrupting the traffic were in fact conscientious citizens, trying a unique way of protesting against the pothole-riddled or non-existent roads in the city, and dust pollution. The others had no choice but to join the game and support the cause.
 
This is the condition of one of the major roads in Peenya, where about 50 per cent of Bangalore’s apparel export factories are located. Factory owners and the area residents say this road, like many others in the area, has been in this state for a year and nothing has been done so far. Added to the misery, the already damaged roads have become worse, thanks to the rain. Bad roads have seriously affected export activities as representatives of foreign companies refuse to travel on these roads, they add. These pictures were sent to The Times of India by Gokaldas Exports.

 
 
 
 
 
 
SP Road left in the lurch
Bangalore: Sadar Patrappa Road (SP Road), one of the major roads in the busy City Market area, was dug up by the BMP during October to concretise the stretch. But till date, the stretch lies in a battered state as the concretisation work has not moved an inch forward. “Traders of Silver Jubilee Park Road (SJP Road) and SP Road have been struggling for survival. The trade on these roads has practically come to a halt. Thanks to the huge craters, potholes, slush and dug-up stretches, vehicle users avoid this stretch and twowheelers drive at their own risk,’’ said B K Goyal, secretary of Federation of Trade Associations of Central Bangalore.
   The concreting work of SP Road was launched on October 1, but even after more than 55 days, the road still lies dug up, full of slush and with open trench on one side.
   The condition of the adjacent SJP Road is no better as the road is enveloped with layers of fine dust which is causing health problems to the traders. And less said the better about the stretch when it rains, inviting slush all over. Traders complain that their business has come down by 50% in the last few months.
   The project to concretise SJP Road was launched on November 21 by BMP after the traders protested and blocked the road. But now they are apprehensive about the project as several such projects had got kicked off in the area only to be dropped mid-way.
 

Pension Officers Putting Billions Into Hedge Funds

Faced with growing numbers of retirees, pension plans are pouring billions into hedge funds, the secretive and lightly regulated investment partnerships that once managed money only for wealthy investors.

The plans and other large institutions are expected to invest as much as $300 billion in hedge funds by 2008, up from just $5 billion a decade ago, according to a study by the Bank of New York and Casey, Quirk & Associates, a consulting firm. Pension funds account for roughly 40 percent of all institutional money.

This month, the investment council that oversees the New Jersey state employees pension fund said it would put some of its money into hedge funds for the first time, investing $600 million over the next several months.

While most pension plans have modest stakes in hedge funds, others have invested more than 20 percent of their assets. Weyerhaeuser, the paper company, has 39 percent of its pension fund's assets in hedge funds. In Congress, there has been a push for amendments that would make it easier for hedge funds to manage even more pension money, without having to comply with the federal law that governs company pensions.

Pension officials who have been shaken by market downturns and persistent deficits are attracted by hedge funds' promise of richer, or more consistent, returns. But the trend has caused some consultants and academics to voice cautions. They question whether hedge funds, with risks that are hard to measure, are appropriate for pension funds, whose sole purpose, by law, is to pay out predetermined benefits to retired workers.

Those benefits are considered so crucial that they are guaranteed: corporate pension failures are covered by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, a federal agency, while pension failures by state and local governments are covered by taxpayers. Given that the benefits are paid out on a set schedule, critics wonder whether it makes sense to rely on investments whose returns are hard to predict, managed by private partnerships that disclose little about their operations and charge some of the highest fees on Wall Street.

"It's very inappropriate when the company is offering a pension plan that is guaranteed by the federal government," said Zvi Bodie, a professor of finance and economics at Boston University who is enthusiastic about hedge funds in other contexts.

Hedge funds make large, sophisticated investments based on the premise that by swimming outside the currents of the markets, often betting against conventional wisdom, they can outperform other investments. Hedge funds became famous in the 1990's, when managers like Michael Steinhardt and George Soros made huge swashbuckling bets that sometimes produced returns of 30 percent or more.

More recently, hedge funds have made headlines when they ran into trouble: Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund whose principals included two Nobel Prize-winning economists, nearly collapsed in 1998; and this summer, Bayou Group, a $450 million hedge fund based in Connecticut, shut down after most of its money disappeared. Its two officers have pleaded guilty to fraud charges. Hedge funds have traditionally been only for wealthy, sophisticated investors so regulators have not monitored them as they have stocks or mutual funds, although they are starting to do so.

The news of splashy gains and scandals may not paint an accurate picture of a business that in many ways has become more conservative as a result of the flood of pension fund money. To attract that money, many hedge fund managers emphasize stability.

Among pension fund managers, however, "the whole mentality has changed," said Jane Buchan, chief executive of Pacific Alternative Asset Management, which manages $7.5 billion in funds that invest in hedge funds, primarily for large pension funds. "They are saying, we need returns and we will be aggressive about getting them. They just don't want any downturns."

Friday, November 25, 2005

Indian banks are really not that big

What do Bank of China and State Bank of India have in common? They are the largest commercial banks of two of the world's largest and fastest growing economies. But the similarities end here. On all other counts, the two banks are as different as chalk and cheese.

In terms of size, Bank of China is the 11th largest bank in the world, while SBI occupies the same position in Asia. Globally, however, SBI is 93rd. In terms of asset base, Bank of China is over four and a half times bigger than SBI. Last year, it had an asset base of $516 billion against SBI's $110 billion (at an exchange rate of Rs 45.77 a dollar).

When it comes to Tier I capital (that is, equity and reserves) -- another parameter to ascertain a bank's size and its risk-taking ability -- Bank of China is again bigger than SBI. Last year, its Tier I capital was $34.8 billion against SBI's $5.8 billion.

Bank of China is actually marginally smaller than the entire Indian banking industry.  Last year, the collective Tier I capital of 77 Indian banks -- 26 public sector banks (2005-06 balance sheet of Punjab & Sind Bank is not yet available), 24 private banks, and 27 foreign banks operating in India -- was $33.7 billion.

The overall asset base was $533 billion. The top four banks in China, which also hold the top four slots among Asian banks, had a Tier I capital of $95 billion -- almost three times the capital base of the entire Indian banking industry. Similarly, the asset base of the four was $2,095 billion, almost four times that of Indian banks'.

If we look at the world's 10 largest banks, the comparison becomes even more glaring. Last year, Citigroup's, the world's biggest banking conglomerate, Tier I capital was $74 billion. Its asset base was $1,484 billion.

Each of the banks in the global top 10 list - JP Morgan Chase & Co, HSBC Holding, Bank of America, Credit Agricole, Royal Bank of Scotland, Mitsubishi Tokyo, HBOS and BNP Paribas - has a higher capital and asset base than the entire Indian banking industry.

Last year, BNP Paribas, which has the lowest capital base among the global top 10, had a Tier I capital of $35.7 billion, marginally higher than the Indian banking industry's collective Tier I capital of $35.28 billion. Similarly, HBOS, which has the lowest asset base among the global top 10 banks, is almost one-and-half times bigger than the total assets of the Indian banking industry.

http://in.rediff.com/money/2005/nov/24guest.htm

Thursday, November 24, 2005

Japan: The Slow Life. Tune in, drop out, grow rice

Nearly half of the world's population now live in cities. A hundred years ago, only 14 percent were urban dwellers, 200 hundred years ago a mere 3 percent. It's a phenomenal change in world demographics, and it has transformed the way we work, our lifestyles, even our relationship to the food we consume.
Tokyo is an icon of the world's new megacities -- with an official population of 12 million, one out of every 10 Japanese lives there. The greater metropolitan area may contain as many as 26 million inhabitants. The result is one of the most densely populated places on Earth.
Tokyo's "bright lights, big city" energy is a beacon to foreign tourists and Japanese alike. In fact, the lure of the city is so strong that it has depopulated many rural areas in Japan.
FRONTLINE/World reporter Jason Cohn, who has lived in Japan and speaks the language, understands the adrenaline rush of Tokyo, but prefers the quiet island of Shikoku, which is, in his words, "the spiritual center of the nation, the farm country." In this week's edition of Rough Cut, we present Cohn's window into this other Japan, outside Tokyo where people live "the slow life."
"Out there in the big city, the pace is really fast, and I found it really difficult to keep up," says Misa Ichikawa, who left Sapporo, another of Japan's hectic cities, to seek the quiet life in rural Shikoku. "I'm a country person, a country mouse, so I think it suits me."
Not that the slow life is an easy life. Ichikawa's husband, Sean Burgoine, another refugee from urban stress, has chosen to become a rice farmer, with all the backbreaking labor that requires.
"People will tell you straight out that you're mad," says Burgoine. "You can't make a living as a farmer these days."
And therein lies another twist to Cohn's unusual tale. Burgoine is a young Australian who has adopted Japan as his home and rice growing as his profession, even though his mentor, a successful Japanese farmer teases him, "Unfortunately, I think you are hopeless."
But the farmers of Shikoku have welcomed Burgoine and other college-educated refugees from the cities because they fear their world is vanishing. Government subsidies and protectionist tariffs guarantee that veteran Japanese rice farmers can prosper, but their sons and daughters are not following in their footsteps. They have left for the cities. The average age of the Japanese farmer is now 60. Some farms have been abandoned altogether, reclaimed by jungle. So if young people planting the terraced fields means that there's now a small back-to-the-earth movement bucking the trend, the older farmers are grateful, even if some of those young people are "crazy foreigners" like Burgoine.
He and his wife -- and their friends -- seem content to live and work in a quiet, green place, outside the fast lane. "I don't have great dreams of earning a lot of money," says Burgoine.
Stephen TalbotSeries Editor
http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/rough/2005/11/japan_the_slow.html (8.30 minutes video)

Japan Farms: An Old Man's Game

Posted: 07-Nov-03
New York Times By James Brooke Nov. 7, 2003 MIHARU, Japan, Nov. 6 - When the motorcade of earnest agricultural promotion agents rolled up the other morning to his father's rice paddy, Shunseki Ouchi sensed a lecture on the virtues of farming. Without even a bow, Mr. Ouchi, a 22-year-old college student, ran away. Here in the heart of what was once a Japanese rice bowl, young people are voting with their feet on farming. Since 1980, the number of people in this town of 20,000 making most of their money from farming has dropped 56 percent, to 1,655. In the 15- to 59-year age group, the drop has been more precipitous: 83 percent, to 455. The only segment that has grown is of farmers over 70, currently 633.

On Sunday, Japanese voters are expected to return to power the Liberal Democrats, the politicians who over the last half-century have irrigated Japan's farm sector with subsidies and kept city food prices high through tariffs.

But judging by the advancing age of farmers in this town 120 miles north of Tokyo, and by the advance of scrub forest into abandoned farmland, the Liberal Democrats are playing a waiting game, waiting for the grim reaper gradually to thin the ranks of Japan's politically influential farmers.

"Young people dislike farming," Akiyoshi Ouchi, 50, said, looking a little sheepish about his son's abrupt flight. Speaking under the gaze of Sidek Bin Saadon, his 23-year-old "agricultural trainee" from Malaysia, Mr. Ouchi said that of the 73 farm households in his district, only four other families lived solely from farming.

The wait for a policy shift in Tokyo may not be long.

Later in the month, Japanese and Mexican negotiators are to resume talks on a free trade pact. Last month, Mexico's president, Vicente Fox, left Tokyo empty-handed after Japanese negotiators refused to allow measures that would harm pig farmers and orange juice producers. But Japan's leading business group, the Keidanren, calculates that Japanese companies lose $3.6 billion each year that passes without a bilateral free trade pact.

The announcement that Japan would resume talks with Mexico shortly after the election indicates that Japan intends to keep its promises to start free trade talks early next year with South Korea and Thailand, both major rice producers.

Despite billions of dollars in subsidies and protective rice tariffs as high as 490 percent, young rural dwellers do not think the government will maintain today's economic fantasyland in which a farmer can earn $50,000 a year from three acres.

Contributing to the bleak economics of rice farming, last summer's cool and rainy weather is making this fall's rice crop Japan's worst in a decade.

"We knew changes would come, so we decided that he would work outside," Kazuya Furukawa, a 56-year-old rice farmer, said gesturing to Tatsuya, his 34-year-old son, who has a civil service job.

Across the archipelago, the number of people working full time in farming has dropped steadily, to about 2.8 million today, down from 3.9 million in 1980, and from 12 million in 1960.

Here in the Fukushima prefecture, which once had Japan's largest tobacco crop and its second-largest production of silkworms, it is easy to spot some of the region's 40,000 acres of recently abandoned farmland.

In the folds of the hills here, cattails grow in abandoned, 300-year-old rice paddies. On hillsides, weeds grow in old tobacco patches. Mulberry orchards have been left to grow wild, victims of a silkworm business that collapsed in face of low-priced Chinese competition.

"The youngest farmer I know around here is 45," said Yoshio Kanomata, 62, who drives a taxi to make ends meet. His four children have migrated into local white-collar jobs. At this year's harvest time for the family tobacco crop, his wife, Sueko, hired three neighbors: two 70-year-old women and a 75-year-old man.

With government support for tobacco being phased out, the value of tobacco produced in this town has dropped 75 percent since 1975, the mulberry leaf production has been wiped out, and the production of rice, the untouchable of Japanese farm policy, has dropped by a third. The only growth has been in truck farming as production of vegetables has doubled, largely for local market.

"We are going back to the old saying: in order to keep healthy you should eat food grown from the area surrounded by four li," said Shigeru Fukaya, the town employee charged with promoting agriculture, using a local measurement. "You won't get sick if you only eat crops from a four-kilometer-by-four- kilometer area."

While Japanese consumers like locally grown fresh food, they no longer seem swayed by scare campaigns on imported rice.

"American rice is not that much different," Mr. Furukawa, a 12th-generation rice farmer, said in his farmhouse, where the family shrine room includes a portrait of Emperor Hirohito, Japan's wartime leader. "I cook in the winter at the ski area near here. I have used it. I don't think there is a difference."

While Japan limits its rice imports to 770,000 tons, less than 10 percent of its needs, many city dwellers say they would prefer cheap American rice to expensive domestic rice.

At the same time, many Japanese are concerned that the country now relies on imports to cover 60 percent of its food needs, the highest ratio among major nations in the world.

"Japan is the world's largest agricultural importer country," Yoshiyuki Kamei, Japan's agriculture minister, said in a recent briefing for foreign reporters. Pegging imports at around $35 billion year, he added: "Even compared to Germany, which ranks second, Japanese net food imports are more than double Germany's imports."

Despite the general hand-wringing over agriculture in Japan, farming is in retreat. In recent years, farmers have started to battle a new threat: wild boars rooting up their fields.

"The increase of boars is because of the abandonment of farmland," Mr. Fukaya said. "As far as agriculture is concerned, this is a dropout town."

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/07/business/worldbusiness/07farm.html

Google's Growth Helps Ignite Silicon Valley Hiring Frenzy

Google's Growth Helps Ignite
Silicon Valley Hiring Frenzy

Tech Firm Battles Big Rivals
To Nab Top Engineers;
Bidding Wars Are Back
Math Problem on a Billboard
By PUI-WING TAM and KEVIN J. DELANEY
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 23, 2005; Page A1

In June, as engineer Anselm Baird-Smith mulled leaving eBay Inc. for another job, he received a call from Google Inc. Within days, Google executives had interviewed him and dangled before him an enticing offer: a six-figure salary and restricted stock then valued at several million dollars, to be distributed over several years.

"Google was really aggressive and they moved fast," says Mr. Baird-Smith, who holds a doctorate in computer science and is known for his work as the developer of Jigsaw, software used in computer servers. As a bidding war escalated, Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt telephoned to urge him to defect.

In the 15 months since Google went public, the Mountain View, Calif., company has galvanized the technology world with its innovative Internet search technology, its rapidly broadening business plan, and its soaring stock price. In the office parks of Silicon Valley, Google also has helped fuel something else -- a hiring frenzy reminiscent of the dot-com boom.

To accomplish its current pace of hiring about 10 new employees a day, Google has assembled a formidable hiring machine. Its recruitment department includes as many as 300 free-lance recruiters who are helping it to identify who's who in software engineering, according to three people involved in the effort.

To locate new talent, Google has held software-code-writing contests. It has plastered billboards with math problems, such as one on U.S. 101 in Silicon Valley that asked drivers to identify "the first 10-digit prime found in consecutive digits of e." It has paid to insert an "aptitude test" into tech magazines, encouraging engineers to submit their answers to 21 questions, along with their résumés. And it has upped the stakes in competing with other companies to draw attention from engineering students, handing out free pizza and raffling off gadgets to boost university recruitment.

One top-notch engineer is worth "300 times or more than the average," explains Alan Eustace, a Google vice president of engineering. He says he would rather lose an entire incoming class of engineering graduates than one exceptional technologist. Many Google services, such as Gmail and Google News, were started by a single person, he says.

Other top tech firms are fighting back. Google's play for Mr. Baird-Smith prompted eBay to offer him cash incentives to stay. Bill Nguyen, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur who also had been talking with Mr. Baird-Smith, offered the engineer $1 million over three years to work on a start-up, plus a substantial equity stake in any resulting project. In the end, Mr. Baird-Smith accepted Mr. Nguyen's offer.

"This is what you have to do if you want to beat Google," says Mr. Nguyen.

Although Mr. Baird-Smith got away, Google has succeeded in snaring other top talent. Its high-profile hires include Adam Bosworth from BEA Systems Inc., Kai-Fu Lee from Microsoft Corp., Louis Monier from eBay, and Vinton Cerf, who is often cited as a founding father of the Internet, from MCI Inc. Google declined to comment on any specific recruiting cases.

Over the years, Silicon Valley has seen other hiring booms, as companies such as Apple Computer Inc., Cisco Systems Inc. and Netscape Communications Inc. wrestled for brainpower while staffing up during their fast-growth phases. When the dot-com bubble burst earlier this decade, however, demand for tech talent dried up, and many workers left the area altogether.

Google, which saw its revenue increase more than sixfold to $3.2 billion between 2002 and 2004, is helping lead the latest charge. Its hiring drive began not long after its initial public offering in August 2004. At that time, the company had about 2,600 employees, a fraction of Microsoft's 60,000 employees and Hewlett-Packard Co.'s 150,000. Google grew to more than 3,000 by year end, to nearly 3,500 by March 31, and to just over 4,100 by June 30. As of Sept. 30, the company had 4,989 full-time employees, 87% more than when it went public.

"We definitely continue to experience the giant sucking sound that is Google," says Joe Kraus, chief executive of start-up JotSpot Inc. and a former executive at onetime Internet darling Excite Inc. He says he has recently battled Google for technology talent.

Google executives say their efforts to snare top programmers, engineers and other technology experts are not unique. "We're working hard to get [talent], but other companies across Silicon Valley are doing that as well," says Arnnon Geshuri, Google's staffing director.

Indeed, competition for high-tech employees appears to be rising across the board as demand for high-tech products has recovered. The number of job postings on Dice.com, a tech-employment site, more than doubled to 77,600 since October 2003. Average salaries for tech consultants are up 6.2% in the first six months of 2005 to $87,100, the company estimates.

Microsoft acknowledges trying to hire some employees from Google and snagged the head of Yahoo Inc.'s research labs earlier this year. Yahoo has aggressively beefed up its research staff with high-profile hires from Amazon.com Inc. and International Business Machines Corp., among others.

Google hired away Microsoft's Mr. Lee in July by offering the speech-recognition expert a pay package valued at some $10 million over four years, according to documents in a court case over the matter. Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer tried to hold on to Mr. Lee by offering him a new job and higher pay, according to Mr. Lee's sworn declarations in the case. When Mr. Lee said he planned to leave anyway, Chairman Bill Gates told him to expect a lawsuit. "We need to do this to stop Google," said Mr. Gates, according to the declarations.

The result is a legal battle reminiscent of the recruiting wars of the late 1990s. Microsoft filed suit against Mr. Lee and Google in July in Washington State Superior Court in King County, alleging that Mr. Lee violated a noncompete agreement when he defected to Google. Google and Mr. Lee have disputed the claim. The case is scheduled for trial in January.

Grueling Process

Google's typical hiring process is regarded as one of the industry's most grueling and extensive. Candidates are often subjected to weeks of interviews, with hiring decisions often made by large committees of executives.

"Google is super active and they're one of the most visible companies" on campus, says Jitendra Malik, a computer-science professor at the University of California at Berkeley. Google held 179 interviews with UC Berkeley's electrical-engineering and computer-science students this fall, up from just 10 job interviews in the same period a year ago, says the university. UC Berkeley says demand from other tech companies hasn't increased as much over the past year.

Google's Mr. Eustace maintains that the salaries it offers for top talent are generally on par with its competitors, or slightly lower. But the offers are often accompanied by hefty grants of restricted stock known as "Google Stock Units." Unlike stock options, which can become worthless if a stock falls below a certain price, restricted stock usually retains value. If employees stay long enough for shares to vest, they receive actual Google shares.

Google began offering restricted stock to all new hires earlier this year. In a recent regulatory filing, it said it had 498,000 such shares outstanding, with a current total market value of around $200 million. According to some Google rivals, if Google discovers that a top job candidate has competing offers, it sometimes doubles its restricted stock offer. Mr. Eustace says Google has engaged in heated competition in only "a tiny fraction" of recruiting situations and generally makes offers in the same range as rival tech companies.

To compete against its larger rivals, Google beefed up its recruiting effort, retaining veterans like Shally Steckerl, a contract recruiter who runs a consulting firm called JobMachine, and Eric Jaquith, a free-lance recruiter who runs Recruiting Choices. Both began working as in-house consultants for Google in September 2004, when the company had more than 80 full-time and contract recruiters in-house, says Mr. Jaquith.

Messrs. Steckerl and Jaquith say they were instructed to diversify Google's engineering pool by hiring more female engineers. They called their team "Zion," after the underground city of humans in "The Matrix" movies. Mr. Jaquith says he was assigned to track down all women from the top 50 universities world-wide who had graduated after 1980 with Ph.D.s or master's degrees in physics, math or computer science. By last December, the end of his stint at Google, he had made thousands of phone calls to female engineers, he says.

Jim Stroud, a contract recruiter involved in the effort between December 2004 and June, says he unearthed several hundred names of female engineers. He estimates that fewer than 10 of those were hired during his tenure. Google's job-interview process is "like a Senate committee hearing," says Mr. Stroud. "You have to get approved by 14 people at least before you get hired."

Mr. Steckerl says the Zion group hired more than 45 engineers during the last quarter of 2004, and increased the total to more than 100 in the first quarter of 2005. Google declines to comment on Messrs. Steckerl, Stroud and Jaquith or the percentage of engineers who are female. Google says it doesn't have 300 recruiters, but declined to elaborate.

'They Went After Us'

Other tech companies have made runs at Google employees. Mr. Steckerl says Microsoft approached him earlier this year. In April, he joined Microsoft as a full-time employee. Within weeks, he says, Microsoft had hired away three other Google contract recruiters from the Zion team, including Mr. Stroud. "They knew who they wanted and they went after us," says Mr. Steckerl.

Abilio Gonzales, Microsoft's general manager of staffing, says the software maker has stepped up recruiting in the past year, telling prospective hires that it works on a wider array of technologies than Google. He says Microsoft's staffing department has grown to 355, up 15% from a year ago.

Yahoo has also expanded its recruiting team. Its executive committee discussed Google's hiring push at meetings earlier this year, says Usama Fayyad, Yahoo's chief data officer. "We believe the [compensation] levels they are willing to go to are unreasonable," says Mr. Fayyad. "It has gotten nuts over the last six months."

Nevertheless, Prabhakar Raghavan, Yahoo's head of research, contends Yahoo has won a majority of the head-to-head hiring battles against Google that he has been involved with. But he says it may become harder to compete if Google continues with what he contends are inflated compensation packages. Earlier this year, he says, Google offered one job candidate much more money than Yahoo was willing to pay. When the engineer decided to join Yahoo anyway, Google doubled the amount of stock it was offering, to no avail, he says.

Mr. Raghavan, who says he was wooed by Google and Microsoft before joining Yahoo in July, argues that such "irrational" offers are bad for the tech industry because they distort compensation expectations and sow resentment among lower-paid employees.

Allan Brown, Google's director of recognition and human-resources systems, disputes that the company is bidding too aggressively for talent. He estimates that Google wins only about half of its hiring showdowns with Yahoo. He says Yahoo also engages in bidding wars, and that Google would consider doubling a restricted stock offer only if there was a strong argument for doing so. Mr. Eustace adds that Google sometimes offers compensation of up to about 15% more than other tech companies, but generally stays within the same range as its rivals.

EBay spokesman Hani Durzy says the San Jose, Calif., Internet auctioneer has lost 10 to 20 technologists to Google since the start of the year. But Mr. Durzy says eBay hired 1,300 people during that period, including 800 technologists.

Google may need to assemble an engineering brain trust to hedge against a potential talent drain. With its stock closing yesterday at $416.47 a share, many of its earliest employees have become multimillionaires. At other successful tech companies such as Microsoft, some wealthy veterans have retired young. Earlier this year, a Google vice president of engineering, Wayne Rosing, retired to pursue his passion for astronomy. Google says there is no mass exodus and that its annualized attrition rate is in the low single-digits, below average for a tech firm.

The industry is watching closely the legal dispute over Google's hiring of Mr. Lee from Microsoft, which sheds light on how Google courts top talent. In an email disclosed in the litigation, Mr. Eustace wrote that he "pursued [Mr. Lee] very hard because he has incredible hiring ability," which might help "shake a few more people loose."

Google Vice President Jonathan Rosenberg wrote in an email to colleagues: "I all but insist that we pull out all the stops and close him like wolves."

China's Great Population Plight

China’s Great Population Plight, Part 1
By Antony Peyton

Imagine a world where men outnumber women, where the vast surplus of sexually frustrated males could threaten the very fabric of society, and where females are a rare and almost dying breed. This might sound like some far-fetched science fiction novel, but it’s a reality that is beginning to appear in present-day China.

China’s very own state-controlled news agency Xinhua has been surprisingly frank in reporting the issue of the country’s gender imbalance. The present population stands at 1.3 billion, but will reach 1.557 billion in 2043, and after that is estimated to approach a zero population growth rate.

Zhang Weiqing, Minister-in-Charge of the State Family Planning Commission, declared, “China's newborn gender ratio of girls to boys was 100:117, according to the fifth national census. The number of boys under 9 years old was 12.77 million more than that of girls.”

Zhang’s comments were not in isolation, as Li Weixiong, vice chairman of the absurdly long-winded Population, Resources and Environment Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), also expressed concerns in a keynote speech at a full meeting of the CPPCC’s annual session.

“The normal newborn sex proportion is 100:104-107, and if China's disproportionate figure is allowed to continue unchecked, there would be 30 to 40 million marriage-age men who would be single all their lives by 2020. Such serious gender disproportion poses a major threat to the healthy, harmonious and sustainable growth of the nation's population and would trigger such crimes and social problems as mercenary marriage, abduction of women and prostitution.”

Clearly, both officials would not have expressed such facts and predictions without government approval, and so what we’re seeing here is an acknowledgment of the problem. Which is unusual in a society where face-saving and secrecy is the norm, but it demonstrates the concerns of the Chinese government.

Most people wouldn’t need a deluge of statistics to explain the dangers that a heavily male-dominated society could pose. If you’ve ever walked down a street in the late evening, to be greeted by a group of six or seven men, you may begin to fear aggression or just feel plain uneasy. It’s a natural reaction, even if the males in question have no ill intent whatsoever.

This is not the case in China. Not yet, anyway. If I were to be met by a small number of males, I wouldn’t sense tension and I wouldn’t feel uncomfortable. They’d call out the inevitable “Hello!” and have a snigger, and I’d normally be aware that they’re looking at the “foreigner” to see what clothes I’m wearing. Little do they know that I am not a fashion icon from a London or Parisian catwalk.

But I am aware that males do outnumber the women at present. As a former English teacher, most classrooms could have done with a touch of femininity and resulting liveliness. Also, I’m not a huge fan of nightclubs, as I have never enjoyed communicating via sign language or paying extortionate prices for a beer the size of a thimble. But on my rare visits, the dark interiors were worryingly short of the fairer sex.

On a slight digression, women’s place in China is probably equivalent to the rank they held in the West back in the 1950s. However, before some of our male readers start jumping for joy and reaching for the contact details of the nearest travel agent, let me explain further.

Women are being dominated in a sense and quite simply can be very subservient. After marriage and the compulsory pregnancy (due to parental pressure), they stay at home to become the obedient housewife and mother. Bolder ones return to work, utilizing the help of their grandparents to care for their child. Chinese women have developed a demure nature and can be extremely immature, but it seems that Chinese men encourage this and almost treat their partners like “little girls” to be protected. It’s like somebody somewhere read one of those awful Jane Austen novels and assumed such behavior was to be adored and adhered to at all times.

But how did Chinese society reach such a state of affairs?

The China Daily discussed the background of the ancient practice of preferring boys to girls and asked, “Where have all the girls gone?” It concluded that it’s a combination of the old and the new. The Chinese love to quote fragments from their long history and make note that the "Book of Songs" (1000-700 B.C.) declared: "When a son is born, Let him sleep on the bed, Clothe him with fine clothes, And give him jade to play... When a daughter is born, Let her sleep on the ground, Wrap her in common wrappings, And give broken tiles to play..."

Which seems a bit harsh, but for centuries Chinese families without sons feared poverty and neglect and the male offspring represented continuity of lineage and protection in old age. Customarily, men take care of their elderly parents while women are expected to take care of their parents-in-law. It’s a tradition in a heavily traditional society that is hard to break.

More recently, in 1979, Chairman Mao brought in the infamous one-child policy as part of his strategy to fast-track economic modernization. Originally Mao had favored a huge population to provide strength in numbers, but then realized that placing a limit would ensure greater control.

Parents faced with this law and with only one choice… unsurprisingly choose a boy. This has led to such extremes as killing or abandoning female infants, as well as the mass adoptions—the reason why you see so many little Chinese girls in Western families these days.

At first glance, this lack of females is only China’s problem, but according to Valerie Hudson and Andrea Den Boer, authors of Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population, the situation in China (and India) could threaten future world peace.

“Because son preference has been a significant phenomenon in Asia for centuries, the Chinese actually have a term for such young men: guang gun-er or ‘bare branches’—branches of the family tree that will never bear fruit. The girls who should have grown up to be their wives were disposed of instead. In societies where the status of women is so low, the prospects for peace and democracy are diminished.”

Hudson and Den Boer paint a depressing picture—by 2020, they say, these “bare branches” will make up 12-15% of the young adult population. In light of global statistics showing that violent crime is more likely to be committed by an unmarried man, all these youngsters with pent-up aggression and no prospects are potential time bombs. The authors suggest that China might need to build a huge army to provide a “safety valve” for this aggression. Some may dismiss this as scaremongering, but I think the ladies have a point.

It is unlikely that this problem will “self-correct” as there is no incentive to stop having boys. The Chinese government is aware of this dilemma, but in its typical dithering fashion, hasn’t worked out a solution yet. Years of committee meetings, banquets and speeches will have to occur before they can even begin to find a way out of this prospective mess.

In my opinion, the only resolution would be to pay families a large bonus to encourage them to have a baby girl. In China, a land where the obtainment of wealth is an unhealthy obsession, people only understand hard cash. This is a society that pays homage to the great Yuan in the sky, and money is the cure for most things here.

That said, as if this boy/girl predicament isn’t enough, China faces double trouble. In the second part of this article, we’ll look at “gray matters”… as the country must deal with its rapidly aging population.

 

China’s Great Population Plight, Part 2
By Antony Peyton

In the first part of this article, I talked about China’s vast imbalance in the population’s boy-girl ratio. That being a major problem in itself, the country has to deal with another dilemma that only exacerbates the first: A rapidly aging population.

Many Westerners are worried that China may become such an economic superpower that it will just overwhelm the United States and, quite possibly, the rest of the world. Doomsayers, rest assured: Looking at China’s extreme demographic difficulties—which will only increase with time—that seems highly unlikely.

In fact, according to the United Nations, the proportion of Chinese citizens over 60 will rapidly increase, from 11% of the population in 2004 to a projected 28% by 2040. The share of 80+-year-olds will rise from now 8 million to about 50 million. The ratio of working-age to elderly people will decrease from now 5:1 to 3:1.

And you think Western Baby Boomers have a problem. Of course the aging crisis is not unique to China, but due to the huge population it is likely to get much worse here than anywhere else. Richard Jackson and Neil Howe claimed in their Graying of the Middle Kingdom, “By 2040, assuming current demographic trends continue, there will be 397 million Chinese elders, which is more than the total current population of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom combined.”

The effects on the economy will be devastating. With a lot fewer workers to power the engine of China’s monstrous machine, the huge advances of today could come to a screeching halt tomorrow.

It will also be interesting to see if the Asian attitude to their elders changes when faced with such a surplus of people who will require extra care and increased taxes to support their twilight years. At present, a pleasing aspect within China is the automatic respect given to elderly people. Some may argue that respect is earned and not a right, but here, once the wrinkles and gray hairs set in, the young generation revere the perceived wisdom that old age generates.

As a person in my late thirties, I am not knocking on heaven’s door just yet. But I recall teaching a summer program to PhD students in their early twenties. Chinese students always ask the same questions, and once my age was revealed, I noticed a distinct change in atmosphere. Suddenly, my words and actions carried greater gravity, and truth be told, it made teaching a lot easier.

Whether attitudes will change is debatable, but it’s clear that Chinese taxpayers’ contributions and the entire social security system will have to be transformed.

Jackson and Howe point out that “Pension coverage in China is largely limited to urban workers in the state-owned sector of the economy. In 2002, the ‘basic pension system’ covered 45 percent of the urban workforce, mainly employees at state- and collectively owned enterprises. Rural workers are excluded from the basic pension system, although 11 percent participate in a small and voluntary rural pension system. All told, just 25 percent of China’s total workforce, urban and rural, have any pension provision at all.”

These difficulties are compounded further when the government-run People’s Daily informs the nation, “According to government rules, professional women working for government institutions and state-run companies should retire at the age of 55, but men should retire at 60. Female blue-collar workers may retire at the age of 50 and men at 55.”

Finishing work at such a relatively young age plainly reduces the size of the coffers, but Chinese women perceive this as discrimination. The World Health Organization puts the average life expectancy for Chinese women at 73 (70 for men); in some well-off areas like Shanghai it’s nearly 80. Therefore women still have plenty of life and working years to contribute. Zhu Dan, an impressive lady from the Chongqing Municipal Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Congress (CPPCC), recently stated that “The earlier retiring age means fewer social welfare benefits and it's unfair for women.”

In reply to such calls for change, the People’s Daily proudly announced that “High-ranking officials said government departments would give full consideration to the retirement policy.” When a Chinese person says, “I’ll think about it”, you can be guaranteed that’s all he will do.

The Chinese government may have to brace itself and remove its legendary “iron rice bowl” from the equation. This “iron rice bowl” is an expression referring to the traditional employment status of workers in state-owned enterprises, which include lifetime tenure and comprehensive benefits irrespective of the worker's job performance.

Attempting to abolish this cradle-to-grave social security could create social unrest, but at least if workers wake up and realize that their performance is related to their pay, it might actually create a society that encourages hard work, responsibility and innovation. At present, most workers are happy to do the bare minimum, knowing full well that they will receive the same wage regardless.

However, all this talk of pensions and the young supporting the elderly forgets that the Chinese are extremely adept at saving money, which might just be their ultimate salvation.

Official figures from the People’s Bank of China state that in September 2005, savings deposits at financial institutions were 28 trillion yuan (US$3.46 trillion). And that doesn’t count the bundles of cash that are kept at home.

Saving money and hoarding are endemic in Chinese society. In rural areas, they may have no pension, but they will be saving like mad in private. Even the suburbanites are doing the same. Pots, jars, boxes and other paraphernalia are all stuffed full with wads of notes.

The Chinese find it difficult to spend or give money. They’re very quick to literally snatch the money from your hand, but I’ve noticed that when people hand me my change or salary, it’s often handed over in a slow and grudging manner accompanied by a painful grimace—as though the person had just poured lemon juice on a paper cut.

Suddenly, an individual who didn’t seem to have two pennies to rub together, now has the latest and most expensive mobile phone, or even a brand-new car. Where did the sudden influx of wealth come from? Savings!

It’s like living amongst 1.3 billion Ebenezer Scrooges.

http://www.howestreet.com/mainartcl.php?ArticleId=1731

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

The Vice-Presidential Cabal

Dictionary:

  1. A conspiratorial group of plotters or intriguer
  2. A secret scheme or plot.

Therasus: A secret plan to achieve an evil or illegal end.

 

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Late Edition, CNN Sunday Nov 20, 2005 http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0511/20/le.01.html

 

BLITZER: Criticism of how the Bush administration handled the run up to the war in Iraq isn't limited to Democrats. The man who served as former secretary of state Colin Powell's chief of staff also offering up a tough assessment of the White House's actions. He's retired U.S. Army Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson. Colonel Wilkerson, thanks very much for joining us. Welcome to "Late Edition."

LAWRENCE WILKERSON, FORMER CHIEF OF STAFF FOR SECRETARY OF STATE POWELL: Thanks for having me.

BLITZER: And I didn't mean to suggest you're a Democrat or a Republican. I don't know what you are.

Politically I know you're a retired senior military officer in the U.S. Army. You worked for Colin Powell at the State Department as his chief of staff. And you wrote this recently in the Los Angeles Times: "The decisions of this cabal were sometimes made with the full and witting support of the president and sometimes with something less. More often than not, then-national security adviser Condoleezza Rice was simply steamrolled by this cabal. Its insular and secret workings were efficient and swift, not unlike the decision making one would associate more with a dictatorship than a democracy."

This cabal being, in your words, "the vice president, Dick Cheney, the defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, basically got what they wanted in getting the
United States to war against Saddam Hussein."

WILKERSON: Well, Wolf, my points were a little more precise than that.

My points had to do with the two issues, decision issues that I had the most profound insights into -- the one being the post-invasion situation in
Iraq, and the inept and incompetent planning therefore, mostly led by Douglas Feith under secretary of defense for policy's outfit.

BLITZER: At the Pentagon.

WILKERSON: At the Pentagon.

And the issue which finally broke the -- the straw that broke the camel's back for me and made me want to go public, the issue of detainee abuse, which has done so much damage to my armed forces and so much damage to America's image and credibility around the world. Those were the two issues that I had the most profound insights into.

Now, let me add, there are other things that I think this different, alternative decision-making process had impact on. And I just don't have the profound insights into those other things.

For example, I've recently learned that the Office of Strategic Intelligence that Secretary Rumsfeld wanted to set up in the Pentagon, which would essentially be an office of disinformation, due to the congressional pressure and the pressure from the American people, media and so forth, couldn't be set up.

I've learned that millions of taxpayer dollars were used to outsource that operation to the Rendon Group. And I'm looking into that now, too, because I have some insights into that. I've read the fine book by James Bamford, "Pretext for War" and then his recent article 15 November, I believe, in Rolling Stone which details the relationship between the Rendon Group, Ahmed Chalabi, the INC and so forth.

BLITZER: But on the specific point of the cabal that you spoke about, the Rumsfeld-Cheney cabal steamrolling all these decisions, you're talking about the post-war that they steamrolled decisions and how to deal with the war after major combat, as they say, was over and on the issue of detainee abuse?

WILKERSON: Exactly.

And this is not something that happened in the statutory process. In the statutory process, the bureaucracy worked, if you will. Colin Powell won some as secretary of state. Donald Rumsfeld won some as secretary of defense.

The statutory process on many decisions, U.S.-China relations, the six-party talks with
North Korea, the Millennium Challenge Account, HIV/AIDS donations, on many decisions worked.

But on others it was dysfunctional. And underneath that dysfunctionality, decisions were made in an alternative process.

BLITZER: And so what you're not suggesting -- correct me if I'm wrong -- is that there was a cabal that led to the war?

WILKERSON: No, I cannot find that.

I am having second thoughts about the intelligence on
WMD. Once Shaykh Al-Libi's recantation took place and we now know that his words were false and probably gained under some of the interrogation techniques that I'm now decrying and that every American should decry, but I'm finding things that I didn't know before.

And I'd reserve opinion now on whether or not some of the intelligence that led us into
Iraq was politicized or not.

BLITZER: In our first hour on "Late Edition," the defense secretary and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Peter Pace, both of them said they don't remember seeing you at any meeting leading up to the war or participating in any of these sessions.

Listen to what Rumsfeld told me within the past hour.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RUMSFELD: I don't believe I've ever met him. I look at the picture. I don't recognize him.

BLITZER: Is he right?

RUMSFELD: I can't imagine he was ever in a meeting with the vice president or me or anyone else at a senior level.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Basically suggesting you don't know what you're talking about.

WILKERSON: They made my point for me.

The decisions were not made in the principals process, in the deputies process, in the policy coordinating committee process. They were not made in the statutory process.

And my insights into them came through on the detainee abuse issue, Secretary Powell walking through my door in April or March of 2004 and telling me to get everything I could get my hands on with regard to the detainee abuse issue -- ICRC reporting, memoranda, open- source information and so forth -- so that I could build some kind of story, some kind of audit trail so we could understand the chronology and we can understand how it developed.

Because we knew the photographs from Abu Ghraib were coming out and we knew they were going to do terrible damage to America's image in the world, terrible damage to the troops trying to do their job in Iraq, and we needed to have a handle on how it happened, how it came about and how we might deal with it.

BLITZER: All right. So let's talk about torture specifically. And you've studied this. You've gone into great length while you were working for Secretary Powell on this issue.

Does the United States, whether military or civilian, use torture against detainees?

WILKERSON: There's no question in my mind that we did. There's no question in my mind that we may be still doing it.

And there's no question in my mind where the philosophical guidance and the flexibility in order to do so originated -- in the vice president of the
United States' office. And his implementer in this case was Donald Rumsfeld and the Defense Department.

BLITZER: Now, what evidence do you have to back up that very strong accusation?

Because as you know, the president, the vice president, the secretary of defense, they all deny the
U.S. condones torture.

WILKERSON: As I said before, and as you quoted me, Wolf, I don't know if the president was witting in this or not.

I voted for him twice. I prefer to think that he was not.

The president put out a memorandum and the memorandum, in essence, said that, although this was a new situation -- this war on terrorists was a new situation, the spirit of
Geneva would still apply, consistent with military necessity.

Now, many of my critics have said, ah there's the president's out, "consistent with military necessity."

But the president did not say consistent with national security; he did not say consistent with the demands of the global war on terrorism; he said with military necessity.

That means -- I'm an infantryman, who was in the Army for 31 years. I know what that means. That means if someone is going to -- if I'm detaining someone and they're going to kill one of my buddies or me, I can butt-stroke him. I can even shoot him if I have to.

And I haven't departed from
Geneva. Or even if they say I have, I have a defense. That doesn't mean that I can take that individual in a room, shackled to the wall, powerless and beat him in order to get information out of him.

And the first thing I came across, Wolf, was, as early as December 2010 at Bagram in
Afghanistan...

BLITZER: 2001?

WILKERSON: 2002, where we actually murdered two detainees. And the truly, truly horrific thing about one of those murders is it now looks like, from a consensus of the other military people who were present at the time, that the one man, a taxi cab driver in Afghanistan, was just caught up in things.

He was innocent. He was innocent and he was murdered.

BLITZER: But is this a case of a couple or a handful or a few U.S. troops running amok and getting carried away or a much more serious suggestion that this is condoned at the highest levels of the U.S. government? WILKERSON: Too widespread. And when you've got a general like General Sanchez, who is actually a facilitator of this...

BLITZER: Rick Sanchez was in
Iraq.

WILKERSON: Precisely.

BLITZER: He was the
U.S. commander?

WILKERSON: Actually a facilitator of this...

BLITZER: When you say a facilitator, what do you mean by that?

WILKERSON: Well, what happens is, you have guidance that comes down from on high. And I think this guidance originated with Secretary Rumsfeld. It was a memorandum.

BLITZER: You said the vice president a minute ago.

WILKERSON: Well, the vice president had to cover this in order for it to happen and in order for Secretary Rumsfeld to feel as though he had freedom of action.

There was a memorandum actually from Secretary Rumsfeld. And it's a famous memorandum now. It actually had a note on it saying, I stand up for so many hours every day; I don't see why they can't.

This memorandum and other attitudes on the part of the Defense Department and on the part of its military -- I'm not leaving the military out of this -- its military leaders as well as its civilians created an atmosphere of flexibility, an atmosphere of, this is not your father's war.

This is a place where things can be done because we need the intelligence. And they can be done with a great deal more flexibility than before.

General Miller's trip from
Guantanamo to Iraq had that in mind. And when you do that and combine it with putting pressure from the top down on the troops, to produce intelligence, produce intelligence, produce intelligence, you enter on a slippery slope indeed.

You begin to tell people that there are things they can do that aren't within the normal realm of things and that they have to do them because you need the intelligence.

BLITZER: What evidence...

WILKERSON: And that's what happened.

BLITZER; You say it may be continuing right now. On the military side or the civilian side? By the civilian side, I'm referring to the
CIA or civilian contractors for the U.S. government.

What evidence do you have that it may be continuing to this day? WILKERSON: Well, I can only assume that, when the vice president of the
United States lobbies the Congress on behalf of cruel and unusual punishment and the need to be able to do that in order to get information out of potential terrorists...

BLITZER: When he's opposing the John McCain legislation?

WILKERSON: Right -- that it's still going on. That's the only conclusion I can come to.

BLITZER: Well, can you come to another conclusion that maybe there's that rare moment where it may be absolutely essential?

Last week Stephen Hadley, the president's national security adviser, was on this program and he offered this scenario.

He said, let's say it's September 7th, 2001, a few days before 9/11 and the U.S. has one of those hijackers and he speaks about, get ready, you're about -- a lot of Americans are about to die, but I'm not going to tell you what's going to happen.

Can you envisage a scenario where torture might be justified in that kind of a situation, to try to get the information out of this person?

WILKERSON: Well, if we think about that for a few minutes, it has a lot of logic to it. It almost presupposes the perfect situation where you know everything you need to know before you ask this question.

I'm very familiar with the ticking bomb argument. But there's a vastly more important dimension to it, Wolf. And that is, that this is a war of ideas that we're in. It's not a war of bombs, bullets and bayonets.

We chose to lead with the military in this war because the Taliban,
Afghanistan, Al Qaida and everything was there and we needed to take care of it because of what it had done to the United States.

But the bigger conflict is the war of ideas. Osama bin Laden and Abu Musab Al Zarqawi are evil. And we need the Muslim world to wake up to that evil, as it seems to be slowly doing, and to denounce that evil.

And in a war of ideas, you cannot damage your own ideas, your own position by seeming to do things that are in contradiction of your values. And look at what happened recently with the 170, 173, whatever, Iraqis that we found underneath the ministry of interior in
Iraq. I mean...

BLITZER: Well, they supposedly were being tortured by Iraqis.

WILKERSON; Exactly. But what is General Casey, what is our ambassador, Khalilzad -- what are they going to say to Hakim?

Are they going to go in and say, you can't do this? Hakim will laugh at them. Look at Abu Ghraib. Look at
Guantanamo. Look at Bagram. Why should you lecture me?

BLITZER: As tough as that accusation is, in this statement that you made last month, you also said something that potentially is a lot more worrisome to the American public. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WILKERSON: If something comes along that is truly serious, truly serious, something like a nuclear weapon going off in a major American city or something like a major pandemic, you are going to see the ineptitude of this government in a way that will take you back to the Declaration of Independence.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: All right. Explain what you mean by that because it sounds as if -- that you're accusing this administration of total ineptitude and not dealing with the threats as they currently exist.

WILKERSON: Well, Wolf, this is a long story, and it goes back to the 1947 National Security Act and the debate between the national security state and our traditional political values and cultural values.

So, it's not anything new. There are people who wanted perfect security against the
Soviet Union and were willing to bankrupt the nation in order to do it.

But if you make a decision that you want -- not perfect security but as good a security as you can, realizing perfect security is impossible, and you are willing to spend the dollars on it, you better spend the dollars on the right thing.

And I'm glad you brought this up, because, in my October 19 remarks at the New America Foundation, almost everyone seems to have overlooked what I said -- about what I said about the sclerotic bureaucracy.

There are reasons presidents turn to other decision-making processes than those that exist statutorily. There's a reason that cabals form to do things like
Watergate, Iran-Contra and so forth.

There's a reason for that, because the bureaucracy is so sclerotic; it is so incapable of moving fast -- as Secretary Rumsfeld said, getting inside the enemy's decision loop -- and so, we need to take a real hard look at this.

Katrina -- the federal response to Katrina showed us we need to take a real hard look at how we take those portions of the inter- agency group, the federal bureaucracy, and how we compel them to do a better job of coordinating, of sharing information, of dealing with crisis.

And this has been ongoing for a long time. President Clinton had PDD 56, but he never put any teeth in it. We need something we can put teeth into. BLITZER: Colonel Wilkerson, we're out of time. But thanks very much for joining us.

WILKERSON: Surely. Thank you.

BLITZER:
Lawrence Wilkerson, former chief of staff to the secretary of state, Colin Powell.

Monday, November 21, 2005

India is nowhere near tech leadership

With a vision to become the 21st century IT Leader, South Korea, like India, carried out policy and regulatory reforms to introduce competition in telecom operations and to build strong telecom infrastructure. But there was a difference. It simultaneously took up the task of technology development. In the early 1990s, it took up the indigenous development of ADSL, digital TV and TFT-LCD technology. A few years later, it decided to back the development of CDMA mobile technology in Korea in order to become a leader in the field. When it found that its early partnership with Qualcomm was resulting in a significant royalty outflow from the country, it developed its own standard Wi-Bro, which would enable domestic companies like Samsung, LG and Hyundai to become wireless leaders in the world.

For Korea, telecom infrastructure and indigenous technology development were to be carried out concurrently, as it was recognised that this alone would make the nation strong. This is where the difference between Korea and India lies.

South Korea wants to emerge as a global leader in the 21st century and knows that leadership in technology is the key to this. It does not talk about “technology-neutrality” and did not hesitate in preventing the deployment of competing comparable technology (in this case, GSM) within the country. In fact, it continues to do so.

Promotion of one’s own technology and defining national standards so that companies from other countries can sell only by aligning with domestic standards and with local companies is not an approach unique to Korea.

The US did not allow GSM to enter its country for years, and Europe did not allow the operation of early generation CDMA within its territory.

Japan defined its own standards and did not allow either technology into the country. China in turn has now defined TDS-CDMA as a standard to benefit Chinese companies.

Developed countries and countries with a strong belief in their own capabilities seem to know how to use technology and standards for national benefit in this manner.

India, on the other hand, while making great strides in opening up the economy and building its telecom infrastructure since the mid-nineties, has paid little attention to how it can become a global technology leader.

The country still talks of “technology-neutrality” and continues to import everything lock-stock and barrel. This is so despite the fact that India has a much better established technology development capability compared to Korea, when it first set upon its task. The country still seems to believe that it can at best be a junior partner of multinationals from the West, who will continue to remain the technology leaders in future.

It is not surprising that CNR Rao, technology advisor to the Prime Minister, recently commented at a workshop, “Indians come nowhere near the Chinese and Koreans when it comes to patriotism.”
 

The Saudis Slip In Silently (to the WTO)

The big news is often in the silence. that was certainly true in the case of Saudi Arabia's quiet entry into the World Trade Organization. Last week trade ambassadors in Geneva blessed the move, which will be made official at the upcoming summit in Hong Kong.

Yet there have been few headlines and little public debate about the linkup between the world's most important multilateral organization and a country that possesses 25 percent of the global oil reserves, greatly influences the price of the Earth's most important natural resource and affects the trade balance of virtually every country. Could it be that trade negotiators tried to bury serious flaws in this process? It sure looks that way. At the least, some big issues should have received more attention by the U.S. Congress and others.

Saudi Arabia is also the linchpin of the world's most important cartel—OPEC. Whether you think this club of oil exporters has been a force for price moderation or for gouging consumer nations, there is no doubt that OPEC's mission is to allocate export quotas among its members and thereby control prices. Such behavior would be considered an illegal conspiracy within the United States or Europe. In the past, Washington has at least tried to use its antitrust policies to break up cartels in such areas as vitamins, uranium and glass.

But the U.S. and other governments have given OPEC a free pass on its anticompetitive behavior for decades, and there is no record that they even tried to use the WTO negotiations to loosen the cartel's stranglehold.

The United States and the EU didn't have to take a sledgehammer to Riyadh before granting it WTO membership. Given that Saudi Arabia is in the middle of a political earthquake zone, I can understand why too much pressure to change its economic structure right now could have been ill advised. But Washington and Brussels could have demanded liberalizing economic changes that would unfold over the long term, thereby laying down markers to which they could eventually return, and giving all WTO members the political cover to keep pressing Saudi Arabia to open up its system. Instead they chickened out and made a mockery of their professed support for an increasingly open world economy. No wonder they kept the talks below the radar screen.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/10115837/site/newsweek/

Sunday, November 20, 2005

What's Wrong With This Outfit, Mom?

The girls who dress the most outrageously are often those most starved for adult male attention, first and foremost from their fathers. This happens most commonly with girls whose fathers have disappeared from their lives, perhaps following a divorce, or because their workaholic schedules leave them little time for their children. Children who are raised with attention and affection tend to identify with and admire their parents. This identification is the basis for both discipline and the transmission of values. Without it, parents can't do their job.

I often recommend that fathers be the parent to take the lead in setting limits on their daughters' dress, because opposite sex offspring typically cut that parent more slack. Fathers can say, "Honey, you can't wear that. I know teenage boys -- I was one!" A dad like this is looking out for his daughter and treating her as someone special.

While talk and reality shows and tell-all memoirs thrive and a majority of teenagers today say that they would like to be famous, there are still girls and women who value privacy and modesty. They reveal a quiet confidence, a different kind ofglamour. Even famous people can be modest. They don't have to be Britney Spears. Take Audrey Hepburn, who has no counterpart today. Part of her allure lay in the way she embodied humility and modesty. Yet she also conveyed spirit and originality and a strong sense of self.

Even though she worked in an industry that often promotes commonness, she was an uncommon woman. Even though our daughters live in a culture that clearly promotes coarseness, they can be uncommon, too.

Slate Goes to College

Welcome to Slate's College Week. For the next few days, we turn our eyes to the glorious existence that is college life today. The week kicks off with a look at the state of higher ed: What should every student know by the time he or she graduates? Princeton professor Stanley N. Katz recounts the vexed history of the liberal arts curriculum, and 11 prominent academics, from K. Anthony Appiah to Alan Wolfe, reveal what they'd do if they were in charge.

Is college life as debauched as Tom Wolfe thinks? Two students report from the co-ed trenches: Laurel Wamsley, a senior at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, fills us in on library nerds and sorority gals; and Said Hyder Akbar, an Afghan-American who transferred to Yale from community college, explains how his experiences in Afghanistan have shaped his time in the Ivy League.

On Wednesday, Robert S. Boynton asks whether blogging can ruin the career of an academic. Bryan Curtis assesses college newspapers, and Douglas Wolk catches up with college radio.

Plus: David Brooks, Mark Cuban, Gish Jen, Chris Matthews, and others name the book that most mesmerized them in college. (Hint: Ayn Rand makes an appearance.)

Michael Agger unearths what students reveal about their professors online—and much more.

On this page, you can find an updated list of what we've posted each day. And don't forget that you can join the discussion in the Fray by clicking on the links at the bottom of each story.

Tuesday

"America's Top University: Does college need to be reformed?" by Stanley N. Katz. Posted Nov. 15, 2005.

"Reform School: How to reinvent higher education." Posted Nov. 15, 2005.

"My First Literary Crush: The books famous people loved in college," Posted Nov. 15, 2005.

"Carolina Blue: A Day in the Life of a Tar Heel," by Laurel Wamsley. Posted Nov. 15, 2005.

"Akbar at Yale: From Kabul to the Ivy League," by Said Hyder Akbar. Posted Nov. 15, 2005.

Wednesday

"Carolina Blue: Is college as debauched as Tom Wolfe thinks?," by Laurel Wamsley. Posted Nov. 16, 2005

"Attack of the Career-Killing Blogs: When academics post online, do they risk their jobs?, by Robert S. Boynton. Posted Nov. 16, 2005

"Reform School, Cont'd.: How to reinvent higher education." Posted Nov. 16, 2005.

"Akbar at Yale: Will Econ Help Me Protect Afghanistan From Warlords?" by Said Hyder Akbar. Posted Nov. 16, 2005.

"The Profit Chase: For-profit colleges have lots of championsand lots of problems," by Anya Kamenetz. Posted Nov. 16, 2005.

"Confessions of a College Journalist: Why aspiring writers should be allowed to fail in private," by Bryan Curtis. Posted Nov. 16. 2005.

Thursday

"Reform School, Cont'd.: How to reinvent higher education." Posted Nov. 17, 2005.

Podcast: Series editor Meghan O'Rourke talks about the ideas for college reform emerging from this week's Slate symposium (MP3 file).

"The Death of Literary Theory: Is it really a good thing?" by Stephen Metcalf. Posted Nov. 17, 2005.

"The Hottest Professor on Campus: What happens when students rate their teachers online," by Michael Agger. Posted Nov. 17, 2005.

"College Radio: What's changed—and what hasn't," by Douglas Wolk. Posted Nov. 17, 2005.

Saturday, November 19, 2005

The New White Flight

In Silicon Valley, two high schools
with outstanding academic reputations
are losing white students
as Asian students move in. Why?
By SUEIN HWANG
November 19, 2005; Page A1

CUPERTINO, Calif. -- By most measures, Monta Vista High here and Lynbrook High, in nearby San Jose, are among the nation's top public high schools. Both boast stellar test scores, an array of advanced-placement classes and a track record of sending graduates from the affluent suburbs of Silicon Valley to prestigious colleges.

But locally, they're also known for something else: white flight. Over the past 10 years, the proportion of white students at Lynbrook has fallen by nearly half, to 25% of the student body. At Monta Vista, white students make up less than one-third of the population, down from 45% -- this in a town that's half white. Some white Cupertino parents are instead sending their children to private schools or moving them to other, whiter public schools. More commonly, young white families in Silicon Valley say they are avoiding Cupertino altogether.

Whites aren't quitting the schools because the schools are failing academically. Quite the contrary: Many white parents say they're leaving because the schools are too academically driven and too narrowly invested in subjects such as math and science at the expense of liberal arts and extracurriculars like sports and other personal interests.

The two schools, put another way that parents rarely articulate so bluntly, are too Asian.

Cathy Gatley, co-president of Monta Vista High School's parent-teacher association, recently dissuaded a family with a young child from moving to Cupertino because there are so few young white kids left in the public schools. "This may not sound good," she confides, "but their child may be the only Caucasian kid in the class." All of Ms. Gatley's four children have attended or are currently attending Monta Vista. One son, Andrew, 17 years old, took the high-school exit exam last summer and left the school to avoid the academic pressure. He is currently working in a pet-supply store. Ms. Gatley, who is white, says she probably wouldn't have moved to Cupertino if she had anticipated how much it would change.

In the 1960s, the term "white flight" emerged to describe the rapid exodus of whites from big cities into the suburbs, a process that often resulted in the economic degradation of the remaining community. Back then, the phenomenon was mostly believed to be sparked by the growth in the population of African-Americans, and to a lesser degree Hispanics, in some major cities.

But this modern incarnation is different. Across the country, Asian-Americans have by and large been successful and accepted into middle- and upper-class communities. Silicon Valley has kept Cupertino's economy stable, and the town is almost indistinguishable from many of the suburbs around it. The shrinking number of white students hasn't hurt the academic standards of Cupertino's schools -- in fact the opposite is true.

This time the effect is more subtle: Some Asians believe that the resulting lack of diversity creates an atmosphere that is too sheltering for their children, leaving then unprepared for life in a country that is only 4% Asian overall. Moreover, many Asians share some of their white counterpart's concerns. Both groups finger newer Asian immigrants for the schools' intense competitiveness.

Some whites fear that by avoiding schools with large Asian populations parents are short-changing their own children, giving them the idea that they can't compete with Asian kids. "My parents never let me think that because I'm Caucasian, I'm not going to succeed," says Jessie Hogin, a white Monta Vista graduate.

The white exodus clearly involves race-based presumptions, not all of which are positive. One example: Asian parents are too competitive. That sounds like racism to many of Cupertino's Asian residents, who resent the fact that their growing numbers and success are causing many white families to boycott the town altogether.

"It's a stereotype of Asian parents," says Pei-Pei Yow, a Hewlett-Packard Co. manager and Chinese-American community leader who sent two kids to Monta Vista. It's like other familiar biases, she says: "You can't say everybody from the South is a redneck."

Jane Doherty, a retirement-community administrator, chose to send her two boys elsewhere. When her family moved to Cupertino from Indiana over a decade ago, Ms. Doherty says her top priority was moving into a good public-school district. She paid no heed to a real-estate agent who told her of the town's burgeoning Asian population.

She says she began to reconsider after her elder son, Matthew, entered Kennedy, the middle school that feeds Monta Vista. As he played soccer, Ms. Doherty watched a line of cars across the street deposit Asian kids for after-school study. She also attended a Monta Vista parents' night and came away worrying about the school's focus on test scores and the big-name colleges its graduates attend.

"My sense is that at Monta Vista you're competing against the child beside you," she says. Ms. Doherty says she believes the issue stems more from recent immigrants than Asians as a whole. "Obviously, the concentration of Asian students is really high, and it does flavor the school," she says.

When Matthew, now a student at Notre Dame, finished middle school eight years ago, Ms. Doherty decided to send him to Bellarmine College Preparatory, a Jesuit school that she says has a culture that "values the whole child." It's also 55% white and 24% Asian. Her younger son, Kevin, followed suit.

Kevin Doherty, 17, says he's happy his mother made the switch. Many of his old friends at Kennedy aren't happy at Monta Vista, he says. "Kids at Bellarmine have a lot of pressure to do well, too, but they want to learn and do something they want to do."

While California has seen the most pronounced cases of suburban segregation, some of the developments in Cupertino are also starting to surface in other parts of the U.S. At Thomas S. Wootton High School in Rockville, Md., known flippantly to some locals as "Won Ton," roughly 35% of students are of Asian descent. People who don't know the school tend to make assumptions about its academics, says Principal Michael Doran. "Certain stereotypes come to mind -- 'those people are good at math,' " he says.

In Tenafly, N.J., a well-to-do bedroom community near New York, the local high school says it expects Asian students to make up about 36% of its total in the next five years, compared with 27% today. The district still attracts families of all backgrounds, but Asians are particularly intent that their kids work hard and excel, says Anat Eisenberg, a local Coldwell Banker real-estate agent. "Everybody is caught into this process of driving their kids." Lawrence Mayer, Tenafly High's vice principal, says he's never heard such concerns.

Perched on the western end of the Santa Clara valley, Cupertino was for many years a primarily rural area known for its many fruit orchards. The beginnings of the tech industry brought suburbanization, and Cupertino then became a very white, quintessentially middle-class town of mostly modest ranch homes, populated by engineers and their families. Apple Computer Inc. planted its headquarters there.

As the high-tech industry prospered, so did Cupertino. Today, the orchards are a memory, replaced by numerous shopping malls and subdivisions that are home to Silicon Valley's prosperous upper-middle class. While the architecture in Cupertino is largely the same as in neighboring communities, the town of about 50,000 people now boasts Indian restaurants, tutoring centers and Asian grocers. Parents say Cupertino's top schools have become more academically intense over the past 10 years.

Asian immigrants have surged into the town, granting it a reputation -- particularly among recent Chinese and South Asian immigrants -- as a Bay Area locale of choice. Cupertino is now 41% Asian, up from 24% in 1998.


Students in the library at Lynbrook High School

Some students struggle in Cupertino's high schools who might not elsewhere. Monta Vista's Academic Performance Index, which compares the academic performance of California's schools, reached an all-time high of 924 out of 1,000 this year, making it one of the highest-scoring high schools in Northern California. Grades are so high that a 'B' average puts a student in the bottom third of a class.

"We have great students, which has a lot of upsides," says April Scott, Monta Vista's principal. "The downside is what the kids with a 3.0 GPA think of themselves."

Ms. Scott and her counterpart at Lynbrook know what's said about their schools being too competitive and dominated by Asians. "It's easy to buy into those kinds of comments because they're loaded and powerful," says Ms. Scott, who adds that they paint an inaccurate picture of Monta Vista. Ms. Scott says many athletic programs are thriving and points to the school's many extracurricular activities. She also points out that white students represented 20% of the school's 29 National Merit Semifinalists this year.

Judy Hogin, Jessie's mother and a Cupertino real-estate agent, believes the school was good for her daughter, who is now a freshman at the University of California at San Diego. "I know it's frustrating to some people who have moved away," says Ms. Hogin, who is white. Jessie, she says, "rose to the challenge."

On a recent autumn day at Lynbrook, crowds of students spilled out of classrooms for midmorning break. Against a sea of Asian faces, the few white students were easy to pick out. One boy sat on a wall, his lighter hair and skin making him stand out from dozens of others around him. In another corner, four white male students lounged at a picnic table.

At Cupertino's top schools, administrators, parents and students say white students end up in the stereotyped role often applied to other minority groups: the underachievers. In one 9th-grade algebra class, Lynbrook's lowest-level math class, the students are an eclectic mix of whites, Asians and other racial and ethnic groups.

"Take a good look," whispered Steve Rowley, superintendent of the Fremont Union High School District, which covers the city of Cupertino as well as portions of other neighboring cities. "This doesn't look like the other classes we're going to."

On the second floor, in advanced-placement chemistry, only a couple of the 32 students are white and the rest are Asian. Some white parents, and even some students, say they suspect teachers don't take white kids as seriously as Asians.

"Many of my Asian friends were convinced that if you were Asian, you had to confirm you were smart. If you were white, you had to prove it," says Arar Han, a Monta Vista graduate who recently co-edited "Asian American X," a book of coming-of-age essays by young Asian-Americans.

Ms. Gatley, the Monta Vista PTA president, is more blunt: "White kids are thought of as the dumb kids," she says.

Cupertino's administrators and faculty, the majority of whom are white, adamantly say there's no discrimination against whites. The administrators say students of all races get along well. In fact, there's little evidence of any overt racial tension between students or between their parents.

Mr. Rowley, the school superintendent, however, concedes that a perception exists that's sometimes called "the white-boy syndrome." He describes it as: "Kids who are white feel themselves a distinct minority against a majority culture."

Mr. Rowley, who is white, enrolled his only son, Eddie, at Lynbrook. When Eddie started freshman geometry, the boy was frustrated to learn that many of the Asian students in his class had already taken the course in summer school, Mr. Rowley recalls. That gave them a big leg up.

To many of Cupertino's Asians, some of the assumptions made by white parents -- that Asians are excessively competitive and single-minded -- play into stereotypes. Top schools in nearby, whiter Palo Alto, which also have very high test scores, also feature heavy course loads, long hours of homework and overly stressed students, says Denise Pope, director of Stressed Out Students, a Stanford University program that has worked with schools in both Palo Alto and Cupertino. But whites don't seem to be avoiding those institutions, or making the same negative generalizations, Asian families note, suggesting that it's not academic competition that makes white parents uncomfortable but academic competition with Asian-Americans.

Some of Cupertino's Asian residents say they don't blame white families for leaving. After all, many of the town's Asians are fretting about the same issues. While acknowledging that the term Asian embraces a wide diversity of countries, cultures and languages, they say there's some truth to the criticisms levied against new immigrant parents, particularly those from countries such as China and India, who often put a lot of academic pressure on their children.

Some parents and students say these various forces are creating an unhealthy cultural isolation in the schools. Monta Vista graduate Mark Seto says he wouldn't send his kids to his alma mater. "It was a sheltered little world that didn't bear a whole lot of resemblance to what the rest of the country is like," says Mr. Seto, a Chinese-American who recently graduated from Yale University. As a result, he says, "college wasn't an academic adjustment. It was a cultural adjustment."

Hung Wei, a Chinese-American living in Cupertino, has become an active campaigner in the community, encouraging Asian parents to be more aware of their children's emotional development. Ms. Wei, who is co-president of Monta Vista's PTA with Ms. Gatley, says her activism stems from the suicide of her daughter, Diana. Ms. Wei says life in Cupertino and at Monta Vista didn't prepare the young woman for life at New York University. Diana moved there in 2004 and jumped to her death from a Manhattan building two months later.

"We emphasize academics so much and protect our kids, I feel there's something lacking in our education," Ms. Wei says.

Cupertino schools are trying to address some of these issues. Monta Vista recently completed a series of seminars focused on such issues as helping parents communicate better with their kids, and Lynbrook last year revised its homework guidelines with the goal of eliminating excessive and unproductive assignments.

The moves haven't stemmed the flow of whites out of the schools. Four years ago, Lynn Rosener, a software consultant, transferred her elder son from Monta Vista to Homestead High, a Cupertino school with slightly lower test scores. At the new school, the white student body is declining at a slower rate than at Monta Vista and currently stands at 52% of the total. Friday-night football is a tradition, with big half-time shows and usually 1,000 people packing the stands. The school offers boys' volleyball, a sport at which Ms. Rosener's son was particularly talented. Monta Vista doesn't.

"It does help to have a lower Asian population," says Homestead PTA President Mary Anne Norling. "I don't think our parents are as uptight as if my kids went to Monta Vista."

Trade Deficit Hangs In a Delicate Imbalance

In contrast with the United States, where the personal savings rate recently has sunk into negative territory -- with people spending more than their income -- South Korea's personal savings rate is about 7 percent, and its national savings rate of 33 percent ranks among the highest in the world. The rate reflects the thrift not only of individuals but also of government and business; the South Korean government has run budget surpluses in recent years, so it need not borrow large sums as the U.S. government must.

In interviews with HJC workers, the least thrifty among them reported saving 10 percent of income, and the most thrifty put saving at 60 percent. Typical was the response of Kim Tae-young, an HJC engineer, who said: "My wife just gave birth to twins. I used to save 50 percent, but the cost of the children is very high, so now I'm down to 20 percent."

Miller has sunk much of his wealth into shopping centers and other real estate, so he does not have to fret about saving. But the lack of thrift characteristic of Americans is evident among his employees. In interviews, several reported saving well under 10 percent of their incomes, and even putting aside that much is difficult, they said. Few put the maximum allowable amount in the company's 401(k) savings plan, according to Chief Financial Officer Randy Hutchings, and a substantial number do not contribute at all.

"I would venture to say that of my 125 employees, 80 percent live paycheck to paycheck, and maybe even before paycheck to paycheck," Miller said. "There are employees I've had, when they earned $50,000, they owed money; when they earned $100,000, they owed money. It's not what they earn; it's just the way they do things."

Small wonder, given such saving and spending patterns, that the global trade imbalance continues to burgeon.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/18/AR2005111802634.html

To Win Friends, China Takes Its Message on a U.S. Road Trip

Nation Steps Up Diplomacy,
Hires Big Lobbying Firm;
An Offer to Cut Red Tape
Mr. Zhou Goes to Schenectady
By NEIL KING JR.
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 18, 2005; Page A1

DES MOINES, Iowa -- Zhou Wenzhong was on the road again, this time in central Iowa, which he calls "a heart state." A silk scarf tossed over his shoulder, the new Chinese ambassador to the U.S. came to fiddle with wooden turkey callers and sniff animal-feed additives, while touting China as a land of opportunity that just wants to be America's friend.

It's a hefty challenge, but Mr. Zhou picked his latest destination -- the third state he's visited in four weeks -- with pinpoint care. He came to Iowa, he says, "because this is where America's political battles are settled." One morning on his three-day visit, he traveled with aides in a minibus for a five-hour roundtrip to Cedar Rapids, the district of Rep. James Leach, a Republican who chairs the Asian subcommittee within the House International Relations committee.

"It is important to have friends, especially out here," said the 60-year-old Mr. Zhou (pronounced "Joe"), as he passed grain silos and shorn corn fields on a late autumn drive.

After years of often ham-handed diplomacy, China is trying as never before to win friends and influence people, not just in Des Moines but in Denver, Schenectady, N.Y., Minneapolis -- and above all, Washington. The reasons are clear. China must maintain its scorching economic growth to pull its massive population out of poverty and become more of a global power. To do that, it must keep the peace with the U.S., its largest trading partner and the catalyst for millions of its jobs.

China has gone through a rough patch with the U.S. in the past few months, raising concerns in Beijing and making Mr. Zhou's job all the more urgent. Both sides have been scrambling to mend frayed edges in preparation for President Bush's meetings this weekend in Beijing with Chinese President Hu Jintao. But tensions between the world's sole superpower and its fastest rising new power aren't fading.

The Pentagon warned this summer that China's military buildup could upset the balance of power in Asia. In August, an impassioned Congress effectively killed a proposed takeover of California's Unocal Corp. by Chinese oil and gas company Cnooc Ltd. U.S. lawmakers are threatening to impose punitive tariffs on Chinese imports unless Beijing moves further to revalue its currency.

Mr. Zhou says his job is "to increase the ups" in a relationship plagued by many ups and downs. "Most important," he says, "is that we're seen as a friend and not as a rival."

U.S. diplomats and lawmakers well remember that China, as recently as the late 1990s, would berate the U.S. as "the global hegemon" for meddling in other countries' affairs. At low moments, such as after the downing of a U.S. surveillance plane over China in 2001, the testiness cropped up. Even today, Chinese diplomats still march into the State Department to deliver formal letters of protest over U.S.-Taiwan policy or criticism of China's treatment of the Falun Gong spiritual sect. U.S. officials complain that private sessions with the Chinese remain overly formal, with too many prepared texts.

But China is at last showing some diplomatic flair as it tries to tweak U.S. opinion. "China's diplomats have gotten a lot more confident and a lot more sophisticated," says Joseph Prueher, former U.S. ambassador to Beijing, whose term put him at the center of the bitter spat over the downed U.S. spy plane.

The Chinese government, partly to counter Taiwan's own well-fueled public-relations juggernaut in the U.S., has begun to hire high-priced lobbyists and is bringing in a younger, savvier crop of diplomats to work the halls of the U.S. Congress. Its embassy is reaching out to Washington's many think tanks to solicit guidance, while top diplomats like Ambassador Zhou also work the hinterlands. China's embassy itself will soon become a symbol of the country's new presence in Washington: Since 1979, when the countries normalized relations, Chinese diplomats have worked out of a dreary former hotel. But in April, China broke ground on a new embassy, designed by I.M. Pei and expected to be the city's largest when finished in 2008.

Part of the charm offensive is cultural. China is promoting the teaching of Mandarin in U.S. schools, and the construction of pagodas, Chinese cultural centers and Asian gardens in U.S. cities. Last month, Beijing sponsored a Festival of China at Washington's Kennedy Center, flying in 800 ballet dancers, acrobats, musicians and singers. It cost China's government $2 million.

Chinese Culture Minister Sun Jiazheng told a gathering of U.S. executives and diplomats that the festival had a central message: "That China brings to America love and not threat." He told interviewer Charlie Rose that China wants the American and Chinese people to "have a mind-to-mind talk."

Beijing has also begun aggressively seeking friends in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East. That, at times, complicates attempts to foster warmer ties with the U.S., especially with outreach to countries that have estranged relations with the U.S., such as Iran and Venezuela.

Yet China has shown a nimbleness in dealing with major irritants in its U.S. relations. In July, Beijing slightly revalued its currency, after months of U.S. cajoling. Last week, it agreed to a three-year limit on some textile exports to the U.S. China has also become more active within organizations such as the United Nations, where for years it was a famous abstainer on key resolutions.

A Retail Approach

The British-educated Mr. Zhou, who arrived in Washington in April, has taken a distinctly retail approach to the job. He set the goal of meeting with all 535 members of Congress, though he declines to offer a running tally. He wants to visit all 50 states as ambassador, and has at least 40 to go. (He traveled extensively in the U.S. during earlier, more junior postings in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Washington.)

Mr. Zhou was often the blunt deliverer of bad news to U.S. diplomats in the past. As ambassador to Australia in 1999, he warned the U.S. it didn't have carte blanche to intervene in other countries' affairs for human-rights reasons, saying Washington's "Kosovo formula" for imposing rules on the former Yugoslavia could never apply to Taiwan. He was China's deputy foreign minister in 2001, when a Chinese fighter plane crashed after colliding with a U.S. spy plane. The Chinese pilot was killed and the U.S. plane was forced to land in China. Mr. Zhou repeatedly issued Beijing's demand that President Bush apologize. "The United States," he said, "should face reality, take responsibility and apologize to China."

President Bush eventually did send a letter saying the U.S. was sorry for both the death of a Chinese pilot and that the U.S. plane had entered Chinese airspace without permission.

Yet in Washington he's become a champion listener, and an example of China's subtler approach to foreign policy. At the height of the furor over Cnooc's bid for Unocal, Mr. Zhou went to a dinner with representatives of about 20 major corporations at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington. For 2½ hours, the guests showered him with complaints and concerns about China, ranging from brand theft to discriminatory tax rules. The ambassador diligently scribbled notes.

"It was a tough-love message, and he was there to receive it," said Myron Brilliant, the Chamber's top Asia hand. "He didn't fight it or argue, but simply said he would take it back to China."

Not long after, U.S. officials say, Ambassador Zhou recommended to Beijing that the government drop its support for the Cnooc bid. "He could smell it was a loser," says one Bush administration official. Mr. Zhou declines to comment on the Cnooc spat, other than to say that "it all became very politicized."

Lawmakers tell similar stories on Capitol Hill. "He told us straight out to give it to him with the bark off," says Rep. Mark Kirk, an Illinois Republican who co-chairs a new congressional "working group" on China. At a September meeting, Mr. Kirk and other lawmakers told the ambassador that the mood in Congress was turning against China. To deflect anger, they said, Beijing had to take steps such as freeing its currency and cracking down on patent piracy.

"To my pleasure, he was not offended," says Mr. Kirk.

Still, Mr. Zhou's frustration with official Washington is one reason he hits the road as often as he can to push China's cause. Chinese diplomats contend Congress is out of step with popular opinion. They cite a recent poll commissioned by the Committee of 100, a group representing prominent Chinese Americans. It found only 19% of congressional staffers have a positive view of China, compared with 59% of Americans overall.

"I appeal to you to talk to your congressman and senators," Mr. Zhou told an audience at the Des Moines Marriott on a recent day. Among those sipping cocktails during the speech were state senators, soybean farmers, bankers and manufacturers, many with interests in China.

On his Iowa trip, Mr. Zhou brought four assistants, two from China's Chicago consulate. All were fluent English speakers and all were under 35.

The message wherever Mr. Zhou goes is that trade with China is good for the U.S. and protectionism will only harm both sides. "What I've learned here augers very well for Iowa and China," he told the crowd, citing U.S. farm sales to China.

In Cedar Rapids the next day, Mr. Zhou hustled into a boardroom at Hunter's Specialties, a family-owned hunting-supply company that now makes more than a third of its equipment in China. Owner David Forbes launched into a litany of complaints about how hard it is to get components into China from other Asian suppliers.

Mr. Zhou interrupted him. "Let me introduce my commercial counselor in Chicago," he said, pointing to a young diplomat, Wang Weijia, in a pinstriped suit. "He will help you cut the red tape."

Mr. Wang jumped up to present his business card to Mr. Forbes, who looked overjoyed. "I'll be calling you," Mr. Forbes said.

A Sold-Out Speech

Last month, Mr. Zhou also traveled to upstate New York, where he touted big-ticket purchases by China from local subsidiaries of General Electric Co. in a speech before the U.S.-China Peoples Friendship Association, a nonprofit group. He spent three days in Denver the next week, visiting companies, dropping by a Mandarin class at a local private school, and extolling the value of deeper trade ties at a sold-out speech before the Denver World Affairs Council.

Mr. Zhou was still in Beijing last fall as deputy foreign minister when Chinese officials first began to weigh whether to hire a formal lobbying arm in Washington, a move the Chinese government has long resisted. China had paid, reluctantly, for limited legal assistance in the U.S., but spurned calls to spend more on lobbyists.

But Mr. Zhou and the Foreign Ministry relented in early summer, as calls for punitive trade legislation against China mounted in Congress. In July, the embassy signed up one of Washington's biggest lobbying outfits, Patton Boggs, to open doors and smooth relations with U.S. lawmakers. Patton Boggs -- which has done similar work for Saudi Arabia and Pakistan -- declines to talk about the contract, which calls for the embassy to pay a $22,000 monthly retainer, according to documents filed with the U.S. Justice Department.

Chinese companies, too, are getting into the act. Cnooc, which is largely government-owned, set a new Chinese standard for seeking lobbying help this summer when it hired Washington law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld and five other legal, lobbying and public-relations firms to push its cause in Washington.

Still, China lags far behind much smaller Asian neighbors in spending on lobbyists. Since 1998, Taiwan -- which has a five-story "representative office" in Washington but no formal diplomatic relations with the U.S. -- has spent about $1 million a year on hired representation, according to the Center for Public Integrity, a Washington-based research group. During the same time, China spent about a third as much. The Patton Boggs contract won't push China's annual government spending on legal and lobbying help in the U.S. above $600,000.

The embassy has made a point in recent months of seeking free help, too, especially from China scholars stashed among Washington's think tanks.

In September, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick accused China of creating a "cauldron of anxiety" and urged Beijing to become a responsible "stakeholder" in the world community. The remarks, delivered in a speech in New York, caused near panic among China's U.S. diplomatic corps, according to Chinese diplomats and China scholars. Chinese officials knew the diplomatic meaning of "rival" and "ally" and even "competitor."

But stakeholder?

"What is meant by stakeholder here?" queried a senior Chinese diplomat in an email the next day to one Washington China scholar. "Is China not one already? And is it of a positive, neutral or negative connotation, or both positive and negative?"

Mr. Zhou has come to embrace the term and heralds it as a sign of improved relations. Asked to describe in a sentence how the Bush administration now sees China he says, "We are a stakeholder."

Thursday, November 17, 2005

To Boost Economy, Some Africans Woo White Farmers

Demonized in Zimbabwe,
Mr. Lombard Hops Border
Into Mozambique's Bush
A Consent From Tribal Ghosts
By YAROSLAV TROFIMOV
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 17, 2005; Page A1

CHIMOIO, Mozambique -- David Lombard was driven out of Zimbabwe in 2002 by government-inspired hostility to whites. But the 40-year-old farmer didn't abandon Africa altogether.

Along with several dozen other whites demonized as colonial relics at home, Mr. Lombard moved across the border to neighboring Mozambique. There the government is recruiting white farmers to help build up its economy.

"When I got here, this was all bush," says the stocky, sun-creased farmer. Standing in khaki shorts beside an open-air house that lacks electricity and running water, Mr. Lombard points with pride at the surrounding paprika fields and sheds full of farming machinery.

Across Southern Africa, ownership of prime land by white farmers has become a lightning rod for discontent among impoverished black majorities. Descendants of colonial-era white settlers have long controlled the region's large, modern farms.

Mr. Lombard's cross-border migration was spurred by the opposite approaches taken by Zimbabwe and Mozambique to this explosive brew of race, class, agriculture and politics.

In Mr. Lombard's former homeland, President Robert Mugabe fanned a racial firestorm that pushed white farmers off their land. Over the past several years, an estimated 90% of Zimbabwe's roughly 70,000 whites fled the country. Most landed on relatively comfortable shores of Australia, New Zealand and Britain.

Neighboring Mozambique, which once treated its own white population much more harshly than Zimbabwe ever did, wooed the farmers with offers of cheap land, plentiful labor and tax breaks. White farmers, the government reasoned, would supply the nation with food, jobs and capital. Mr. Lombard was willing to risk hardship and disease to stick with what he knows best: farming African soil.

"A problem for Zimbabwe has become a solution for Mozambique," says Filimone Meigos, a prominent sociologist at the Mozambique Institute of Technology and Science in Maputo, the nation's capital.

Other African nations that lack white farming populations, such as Nigeria, Zambia, Uganda and Senegal, also extended similar invitations, treating families like the Lombards as a valuable development resource.

"Africa is in my blood," Mr. Lombard said recently, even as his 5-year-old daughter, suffering from malaria, lay curled up with fever. In the 1600s, religious persecution in France drove Mr. Lombard's Protestant ancestors to Cape Town. In 1896, they were among the first white settlers in what is today Zimbabwe. "We will always stay in Africa," he insisted, "because I believe we can make a difference here."

Making a Difference

Mozambique government officials say Mr. Lombard and the other white farmers from Zimbabwe and South Africa have already made a difference. According to government statistics, their 35 new farms in the Manica province have created more than 10,000 jobs on about 54,000 acres of previously unused land. The farms have introduced modern export-geared agriculture to the nation, churning out products such as flowers, tobacco and yogurt. "We never had fresh milk here before them," says Cremildo Rungo, a Manica agriculture official who has worked with white farmers since the influx began in 2002. "Our people used to go to Zimbabwe to buy food. Now, it's the Zimbabweans who come to buy food here."

In the 1960s and early 1970s, when Mozambique was a Portuguese colony, more than 100 white-owned farms dotted the province. Some 150,000 Portuguese-speaking whites lived in Mozambique, including U.S. Sen. John Kerry's wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry.

In 1974, a military coup ushered democracy into Portugal, and the new government handed over power in Mozambique to a Soviet and Chinese-backed nationalist guerrilla movement, Frelimo. The new regime nationalized all land and dispatched dissidents to re-education camps. Manica's white farmers were often given 24 hours -- and a single suitcase -- to evacuate homesteads where some had lived for generations. Soon, almost all of Mozambique's whites were gone, leaving the country without most of its doctors, teachers and entrepreneurs.

The Marxist experiment went disastrously wrong, and Mozambique's economy collapsed. In 1976, anti-Communist guerrillas launched an insurgency, unleashing a civil war. By the time a peace deal was struck in 1992, almost one million had died. Two years later, the Frelimo party ditched its Communist ideology, embraced free markets, and won the country's first free elections.

Across the border in Zimbabwe, where Mr. Lombard was then living, the climate for whites remained relatively stable during this time, despite political change. In 1980, white domination gave way to black majority rule, and the nation's name changed from Rhodesia to Zimbabwe. Mr. Mugabe, Zimbabwe's newly installed president, was advised by Mozambique President Samora Machel not to repeat the excesses of Mozambique's revolution. "You have inherited a jewel," Mr. Machel said. "Keep it this way."

The Zimbabwean leader seemed to have listened, at first. For nearly two decades, Mr. Mugabe presided over racial reconciliation. Most whites chose to stay put. The predominantly white commercial farming sector flourished, turning Zimbabwe into a regional breadbasket and the envy of its neighbors.

In the late 1990s, however, seeking to shore up his sagging popularity, Mr. Mugabe uncorked old racial demons. In speeches, he described Zimbabwe's white citizens as "conceited" saboteurs with "an evil agenda." By then, many white farmers, including Mr. Lombard, were living on property purchased with the consent of Mr. Mugabe's government. That didn't stop authorities from orchestrating waves of land expropriations. Government-sponsored thugs invaded farms, sometimes killing uncooperative owners.

By mid-2002, squatters were massing on Mr. Lombard's farm. "People were digging for gold, making holes and trenches all over, and asking to plant near my driveway," he recalls. Persistent threats from the invaders -- and a lack of police response to his complaints -- led him to the conclusion that staying put, especially with two small children in the house, was not an option. "The writing was on the wall," he says.

As landowners left, peasants settled on the confiscated land. But most lacked the capital, machinery and knowledge to run the farms. Eventually, food ran short, and millions of black Zimbabweans emigrated alongside their white compatriots.

Sensing a business opportunity, Felicio Zacarias, then governor of Mozambique's Manica province, began making entreaties to white Zimbabwean farmers in 1998. In the early 1990s, Mr. Zacarias, an agronomist by training, had worked closely with white Zimbabweans while employed by a South African citrus company. Like many agriculture professionals, he grew to respect the expertise white farmers had developed over generations of running commercial farms.

"I knew that the white Zimbabwean farmers were not happy, and that they were looking for a place to continue farming," recalls Mr. Zacarias, now Mozambique's minister of public works and construction. "I also knew that they are the best farmers in Africa, and that the white South African farmers are next after them." In a pitch in 1998 to the white Zimbabweans in the provincial capital Chimoio, Mr. Zacarias explained Mozambique's investment and land laws, and fielded anxious questions from farmers' wives about hospitals and schools.

Because of its Marxist past, Mozambique still outlaws private land ownership. The Frelimo-led government offered foreign farmers renewable 50-year leases on plots of 2,470 acres or more. Annual rents were set at just $1 per hectare, the equivalent of 2.47 acres. Farmers investing in approved areas would receive tax breaks and 50% rent reductions.

In Mozambique, a country twice the size of California, there is enough room for all. Just 20% of its 89 million acres of suitable terrain are currently cultivated. "Mozambique has plenty of land," boasts Agriculture Minister Tomas Mandlate. "And it is open to foreign investors."

In August 2002, Mr. Lombard decided to abandon his farm in Zimbabwe to the squatters and attempt a fresh start across the border. In Mozambique, the newcomers initially asked the government for a large piece of land they could cultivate together by pooling resources. The government refused, fearing it could lead to a wholly segregated community. Mozambique wanted the new arrivals to spread their agricultural expertise throughout the province.

Mr. Lombard eventually selected an overgrown stretch of bush that decades earlier had been the site of a Portuguese farm. One condition for obtaining the lease was acceptance by the local community.

Meeting the Tribal Chief

When he met with the area's tribal chief, Riquirai Tique Macamba, Mr. Lombard presented him with pieces of cloth, cigarettes, soft drinks and crates of beer for a traditional ceremony. Mr. Macamba, a skinny man who is missing front teeth and wears knee-high rubber boots several sizes too big, would not approve the deal without first consulting the ghosts of his ancestors.

After the ceremony, he issued a verdict: Mr. Lombard could settle on the land. Mr. Lombard began building a new home on an old foundation, which was all that remained of his Portuguese predecessor's home. He planted fields of paprika and tobacco.

"He is welcome. The whites are the ones who have the money," Mr. Macamba said recently, as he sat on a straw mat in a village of conical mud huts.

Mr. Lombard employs as many as 550 people, paying them the government-regulated minimum wage of about $1 a day. Although he had not yet built proper housing for himself, Mr. Lombard pooled money with other Zimbabwean newcomers to build a brick school for the villagers.

They also helped the local police station construct a new jail -- one he hopes never to see from the inside, he says with a chuckle. Like many white farmers, Mr. Lombard sometimes wonders whether he'll still be welcome here once the starvation and destruction of Mozambique's recent past fade from popular memory.

A Family Waits

While Mr. Lombard was getting started, his wife Martie, their two daughters and her parents waited across the border in the Zimbabwean city of Mutare. After Mr. Lombard moved from a tent to a more permanent house last year, the rest of his family finally crossed into Mozambique.

Relations with the villagers at times have been rocky. Nobody had worked in a modern business in decades. Villagers had a hard time grasping that they were expected to show up for work on time, and that they could not just take off several days and reappear without penalty. Some used the word "slavery" to describe those requirements, and bristled at having to show Mr. Lombard a justification letter whenever they were absent due to sickness or attending funerals. Employees especially resented that white farmers used experienced black foremen from Zimbabwe, rather than promoting local Mozambicans.

These grievances were aired last month when the chief of Manica's labor unions, Armando Tangai, met with Mr. Lombard's workers on the farm. The heated session was broadcast on local radio, and caused a stir among Zimbabwean farmers, who grew alarmed that their welcome here may be wearing thin.

A few days later, Mr. Tangai assuaged the farmers' concerns. "These farmers don't know Mozambican laws very well, and our mission is to advise them, not to punish them," the union activist explained recently. "Skin color is not an issue for us. We certainly don't want them to close down and leave."

Mr. Macamba, the local tribal chief, says he is pleased with the changes brought by the newcomers. "Before, we were suffering," he says. "Now we can buy salt, food, clothes and everything. The crime is down, too. Our people come back from work so tired that they don't have the time to go steal and rob."

Wednesday, November 16, 2005

Bicultural Europe is doomed

Three years ago -December 2002 - I was asked to take part in a symposium on Europe and began with the observation: "I find it easier to be optimistic about the futures of Iraq and Pakistan than, say, Holland or Denmark."

At the time, this was taken as confirmation of my descent into insanity. I can't see why. Compare, for example, the Iraqi and the European constitutions: which would you say reflected a shrewder grasp of the realities on the ground?

Or take last week's attacks in Jordan by a quartet of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's finest suicide bombers. The day after the carnage, Jordanians took to the streets in their thousands to shout "Death to Zarqawi!" and "Burn in hell, Zarqawi!" King Abdullah denounced terrorism as "sick" and called for a "global fight" against it. "These people are insane," he said of the husband-and-wife couple dispatched to blow up a wedding reception.

For purposes of comparison, consider the Madrid bombing from March last year. The day after that, Spaniards also took to the streets, for their feebly tasteful vigil. Instead of righteous anger, they were "united in sorrow" - i.e. enervated in passivity. Instead of wishing death on the perpetrators, the preferred slogan was "Basta!" - "Enough!" - which was directed less at the killers than at Aznar and Bush. Instead of a leader who calls for a "global fight", they elected a government pledged to withdraw from any meaningful role in the global fight.

My point in that symposium was a simple one: whatever their problems, most Islamic countries have the advantage of beginning any evolution into free states from the starting point of relative societal cohesion. By contrast, most European nations face the trickier task of trying to hold on to their freedom at a time of increasing societal incoherence.

True, America and Australia grew the institutions of their democracy with relatively homogeneous populations, and then evolved into successful "multicultural" societies. But that's not what's happening in Europe right now. If you want to know what a multicultural society looks like, read the names of America's dead on September 11: Arestegui, Bolourchi, Carstanjen, Droz, Elseth, Foti, Gronlund, Hannafin, Iskyan, Kuge, Laychak, Mojica, Nguyen, Ong, Pappalardo, Quigley, Retic, Shuyin, Tarrou, Vamsikrishna, Warchola, Yuguang, Zarba. Black, white, Hispanic, Arab, Indian, Chinese - in a word, American.

Whether or not one believes in "celebrating diversity", that's a lot of diversity to celebrate. But the Continent isn't multicultural so much as bicultural. There are ageing native populations, and young Muslim populations, and that's it: "two solitudes", as they say in my beloved Quebec. If there's three, four or more cultures, you can all hold hands and sing We are the World. But if there's just two - you and the other - that's generally more fractious. Bicultural societies are among the least stable in the world, especially once it's no longer quite clear who is the majority and who is the minority - a situation that much of Europe is fast approaching, as you can see by visiting any French, Austrian, Belgian or Dutch maternity ward.

Take Fiji - not a comparison France would be flattered by, though until 1987 the Fijians enjoyed a century of peaceful stable constitutional evolution the French were never able to muster. At any rate, Fiji comprises native Fijians and ethnic Indians brought in as indentured workers by the British. If memory serves, 46.2 per cent are Fijians and 48.6 per cent are Indo-Fijians; 50-50, give or take, with no intermarrying. In 1987, the first Indian-majority government came to power. A month later, Col Sitiveni Rabuka staged the first of his two coups, resulting in the Queen's removal as head of state and Fiji being expelled from the Commonwealth.

Is it that difficult to sketch a similar situation for France? Even in relatively peaceful bicultural societies, politics becomes tribal: loyalists vs nationalists in Northern Ireland, separatists vs federalists in Quebec. Picture a French election circa 2020, 2025: the Islamic Republican Coalition wins the most seats in the National Assembly. The Chiraquiste crowd give a fatalistic shrug and Mr de Villepin starts including crowd-pleasing suras from the Koran at his poetry recitals. But would Mr Le Pen or (by then) his daughter take it so well? Or would the temptation to be France's Col Rabuka prove too much?

And the Fijian scenario - a succession of bloodless coups - is the optimistic one. After all, the differences between Fijian natives and Indians are as nothing compared with those between the French and les beurs. I love the way those naysayers predicting doom and gloom in Baghdad scoff that Iraq's a totally artificial entity and that, without some Saddamite strongman, Kurds, Sunnis and Shias can't co-exist in the same state. Oh, really? If Iraq's an entirely artificial entity, what do you call a state split between gay drugged-up red-light whatever's-your-bag Dutchmen and anti-gay anti-whoring anti-everything-you-dig Muslims? If Kurdistan doesn't belong in Iraq, does Pornostan belong in the Islamic Republic of Holland?

In a democratic age, you can't buck demography - except through civil war. The Yugoslavs figured that out. In the 30 years before the meltdown, Bosnian Serbs had declined from 43 per cent to 31 per cent of the population, while Bosnian Muslims had increased from 26 per cent to 44 per cent.

So Europe's present biculturalism makes disaster a certainty. One way to avoid it would be to go genuinely multicultural, to broaden the Continent's sources of immigration beyond the Muslim world. But a talented ambitious Chinese or Indian or Chilean has zero reason to emigrate to France, unless he is consumed by a perverse fantasy of living in a segregated society that artificially constrains his economic opportunities yet imposes confiscatory taxation on him in order to support an ancien regime of indolent geriatrics.

France faces tough choices and, unlike Baghdad, in Paris you can't even talk about them honestly. As Jean-Claude Dassier, director-general of the French news station LCI, told a broadcasters' conference in Amsterdam, he has been playing down the riots on the following grounds: "Politics in France is heading to the Right and I don't want Right-wing politicians back in second or even first place because we showed burning cars on television."

Oh, well. You can understand why the Quai d'Orsay is relaxed about Iran becoming the second Muslim nuclear power. As things stand, France is on course to be the third. You heard it here first. You probably won't hear it on Mr Dassier's station at all.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2005/11/15/do1502.xml

Behind 'Shortage' of Engineers: Employers Grow More Choosy

Job Hunters Face Long Lists
Of Requirements as Web
Brings Flood of Résumés
Two Hires From 158 Applicants
By SHARON BEGLEY
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 16, 2005; Page A1

Many companies say they're facing an increasingly severe shortage of engineers. It's so bad, some executives say, that Congress must act to boost funding for engineering education.

Yet unemployed engineers say there's actually a big surplus. "No one I know who has looked at the data with an open mind has been able to find any sign of a current shortage," says demographer Michael Teitelbaum of the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.

What's really going on? Consider the case of recruiter Rich Carver. In February, he got a call from the U.S. unit of JSP Corp., a Tokyo plastic-foam maker. The company was looking for an engineer with manufacturing experience to serve as a shift supervisor at its Butler, Pa., plant, which makes automobile-bumper parts.

Within two weeks, Mr. Carver and a colleague at the Hudson Highland Group had collected more than 200 résumés. They immediately eliminated just over 100 people who didn't have the required bachelor of science degree, even though many had the kind of job experience the company wanted. A further 65 or so then fell out of the running. Some were deemed overqualified. Others lacked experience with the proper manufacturing software. JSP brought in a half-dozen candidates for an interview, and by August the company had its woman.

To JSP, taking six months to fill the position confirmed its sense that competition for top engineers is intense. Company officials "struggle to fill" openings, says human-resources manager Vicki Senko.

But for candidates facing 200-to-1 odds of getting the job, the struggle seems all on their side. "Companies are looking for a five-pound butterfly. Not finding them doesn't mean there's a shortage of butterflies," says Richard Tax, president of the American Engineering Association, which campaigns to prevent losses of engineering jobs.

Amid rapidly changing technology, the engineers employers want aren't necessarily the engineers who are available. And companies often create the very shortages they decry by insisting on applicants who meet every item on a detailed list of qualifications. With the Internet adding to the pile of résumés, company officials say a certain degree of mechanical weeding-out is unavoidable.

The dueling perceptions of engineer shortages lie behind some big policy debates in Washington, fueling emotional clashes over immigration policy and the future of well-paying jobs in America.

Under the H-1B temporary work visa program, U.S. employers are permitted to hire foreign nationals with knowledge and skills deemed to be in short supply. The visas are valid for up to six years and are currently capped at 65,000 per year. Business groups, led by the Electronic Industries Alliance, argue that they need the foreigners because they can't find enough skilled U.S. engineers and technical workers. American engineers, particularly those who are unemployed, complain that the H-1Bs take away their jobs.

At a forum on innovation and education held at the Library of Congress last April, Microsoft Corp. Chairman Bill Gates said, "There just aren't as many graduates with a computer-science background. [That] creates a dilemma for us, in terms of how we get our work done." Last year the National Science Board, part of the National Science Foundation, warned that the U.S. faces "an emerging and critical problem of the science and engineering labor force."

In fact, the number of students graduating with a bachelor of science degree in computer science rose 85% from 1998 to 2004, according to figures compiled from universities by the Computing Research Association. The number of bachelor degrees in engineering rose to 72,893 in 2004 from 61,553 in 1999, according to the American Society for Engineering Education.

Unemployment among engineers was 2.5% in 2004, in line with the 2.8% rate for all professional occupations. In 2003, 4.3% of engineers were unemployed compared with 3.2% for all professionals. The figures don't include people who gave up looking for work in their profession. From 2000 to 2003 engineering employment fell 8.7%, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University in Boston.

Despite the numbers, employers say they struggle to find the right person for openings. Earlier this year, Raytheon Co., Waltham, Mass., needed to find some systems engineers. Raytheon received 158 résumés. It eliminated 40 in the first pass because the applicants would not be able to get a security clearance, says senior vice president Keith Peden. Raytheon ruled out 90 more because the applicants lacked experience in the specific kinds of technology or markets the job required. That left 28. Ten dropped out because they would not relocate or had insufficient technical experience. Raytheon interviewed the remaining 18 in person, made three offers and hired two.

"What used to take two and a half to three months now takes five," says Mr. Peden. Raytheon's chief executive, William Swanson, says: "As a company, we are meeting our hiring needs. My concern is that the degree of difficulty in meeting those needs has gone up exponentially."

Some elite companies have an even higher applicants-to-jobs ratio. Microsoft received résumés from about 100,000 graduating students last year, screened 15,000 of them, interviewed 3,500 and hired 1,000, says a spokesman. The software maker receives about 60,000 résumés of every kind monthly, and currently has 2,000 openings for software-development jobs.

Filling Niches

Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, N.M., hires only people with a master's degree or doctorate for positions in electrical, mechanical and computer engineering. They all need security clearances, says Kate Rivera, manager of staffing, recruiting and relocation. "We are seeing a good supply of engineers and are able to fill our positions," she says, "though filling niche positions can be harder."

Microsoft, too, hires almost exclusively Ph.D.s for its top research positions, says Rick Rashid, senior vice president of Microsoft Research. "We struggle to fill positions for our most technical jobs, though last year and this the supply of Ph.D.s has been fantastic" because of the hangover from the dot-com and telecom busts, he says.

Linda Olin-Weiss, director of staffing services at Lockheed Martin Corp., says there are "pockets of niche skills where it takes longer to get that talent." Lockheed competes with Boeing Co. and other aerospace firms for the best load engineers and optical engineers, she says, "but our programs are fully staffed today and we're able to fill our engineering positions."

Companies often draw up extremely narrow job descriptions, recruiters and staffing managers say, causing searches to get drawn out. One cause: the rise of online job sites, which makes it hard for company executives to personally review every candidate. To screen out the hundreds or thousands of résumés that pour in to a posting on Monster.com or Yahoo HotJobs, companies use software filters to look for keywords. In engineering, those keywords typically describe machinery or computer fields in which expertise is sought, such as C+++, server/stepper and CAE schematic.

Exact Combination

Hiring managers often prefer to wait for the candidate who has the exact combination of attributes they seek, rather than immediately hiring someone who comes close and then giving that person time to get familiar with a new machine or software program.

Last April, Mike Sylvester got a call from Wabtec Corp., Wilmerding, Pa., which builds components for locomotives, freight cars, subway cars and buses. Wabtec needed a mechanical engineer to work on locomotive design. Mr. Sylvester, vice president of operations at AllTek Staffing & Resource Group in Pittsburgh, used his internal database as well as Monster.com to find candidates, and in two days had more than 40 résumés.

He eliminated most of them quickly because they lacked a bachelor of science degree or work experience in the right field. He called five, asking them for references, and passed three on to Wabtec. Then came the deal-breaker. Wabtec would only consider candidates who had experience with Pro/Engineer Wildfire, a new 3-D computer-aided design software package, not an earlier package called 2000i.

"The basic difference between Wildfire and 2000i is not that significant," says Mr. Sylvester. "I say smart people can learn sister applications, but there is reluctance among hiring managers to see that. If they use a SAP database system, they won't even look at someone with experience with a PeopleSoft system. There is a major fear of having to bring someone up a learning curve. They want them to hit the ground running."

Wabtec's vice president for human resources, Scott Wahlstrom, says the company's demands are usually less specific and it is willing to train new hires. But he says "it happens sometimes that you get in a jam, where someone left and we have a very specific search. Those are costly and time-consuming."

The detailed demands aren't confined to software jobs. Mr. Sylvester was asked to find a mechanical engineer to oversee a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning system at a hospital. "A pump is a pump and a duct is a duct, but they wouldn't even look at candidates who had HVAC experience in a mill instead of a hospital," he says.

At JSP, the plastic-foam company, Ms. Senko in human resources says it took six months to fill a process-engineer opening last year. "The hiring manager was looking for very specific technical skills and experience in plastics and injection molding," she says. "We finally persuaded him to expand the scope of the required experience."

James Murphy, 60 years old, of North Hills, Calif., sees the phenomenon from the other side. He holds a master's degree in mechanical engineering and worked for major aerospace companies doing dynamic load analysis -- figuring out what forces would cause an aircraft to break. Later he worked at Continental Airlines using computer algorithms to optimize flight scheduling. Laid off in 2001 from his position doing computerized inventory for a music wholesaler, he estimates he has sent out 10 résumés a week. He has had two job interviews in the past year, both with aircraft manufacturers. Neither led to an offer.

"There is now a string of requirements for an engineering job," says Mr. Murphy. "Years ago there would be one major requirement, with x, y and z nice to have. The worst thing about this emotionally is reading about the 'shortage' of engineers."

Pradeep Khosla, dean of engineering at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, says that for older engineers, "there is a problem of technology moving at a very fast rate. When engineers are without jobs, it is usually because they have not kept up." Mr. Sylvester, the recruiter, puts it more bluntly: "A guy who's been working on a 15-year-old application is a dinosaur."

"Getting engineers who have the type of talent you need, quickly -- a great background, very well-educated, mobile -- has become more important over the last few years," says Jane Leipold, vice president for human resources at Tyco Electronics, Harrisburg, Pa., a unit of Tyco International Ltd. "The demands are different. The advances in technology mean you need very specific talents."

One employer demand that flummoxes many engineers is the need for "soft" skills -- working in groups, communicating and writing. In August, Cornell University hired a speaker to instruct its engineering students in "etiquette and interpersonal skills." (Hints: Don't crumble crackers into your soup or blot your underarms with the dinner napkin.)

"During the dot-com boom demand for electrical and computer engineers was so great it was enough if you could just write code," says Prof. Khosla. "Things have changed a lot."

Roller-Coaster Ride

The dot-com era is only one of many cases over the years when demand for engineers rode a roller coaster. During the Reagan military buildup in the 1980s, aerospace and the defense industry were hot. Then the Cold War ended.

Many executives who contend there's an engineer shortage today predict it will get worse over the next decade as baby boomers begin to retire. This summer a report from a business consortium called for doubling the number of science and engineering graduates by 2015 to fill a projected gap. But crystal balls about labor markets tend to be cloudy. In the mid-1980s, the National Science Foundation predicted "looming shortfalls" of some 675,000 scientists and engineers in the following two decades. They never materialized.

"Every few years there is a spurt of panic that we won't have enough engineers in five years," says Paul Kostek, a systems engineer in Seattle who recently got a job at Boeing after working as a consultant for a decade. "And I say to myself, gee, I'll still be here."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113210508287498432.html

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

Awash in Petrodollars, Russia Frets About the Paradoxes of Bounty

MOSCOW, Nov. 10 - A few years ago, Russia's finance officials could only dream of the problem Aleksei L. Kudrin described recently.

Thanks to bountiful revenue from oil exports, the Kremlin is in a position to pay $15 billion in sovereign debt ahead of schedule next year.

Russia is the world's second-largest oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia, thanks to places like this Lukoil-owned oil field in the Urals, above.

Russia's oil exports are bringing in $500 million a day, and economists are concerned that the cash is gushing faster than the country can use it without leading to inflation. Above, a Lukoil refinery in Siberia.

"We would be ready to pay the whole sum," Mr. Kudrin, Russia's finance minister, explained recently to a group of investors. Other countries, however, are not permitting Russia to accelerate repayment because of other obligations tied to the debt.

Mr. Kudrin's comments illustrate an economic challenge - and a fierce internal debate - novel for Russia, which only seven years ago defaulted on its debt.

As the world's second-largest oil exporter, behind only Saudi Arabia, Russia is taking in $500 million a day from crude oil exports and the cash is gushing faster than the nation can absorb it without causing inflation.

Russia is still a relatively poor developing country, and with obvious needs to fix decades of accumulated infrastructure problems and pull an estimated 25 million Russians out of poverty, it has no dearth of things to spend money on.

If it does not manage smartly, however, Russia's embarrassment of new riches can turn into a classic paradox of good times, one that economists call the Dutch disease, afflicting energy-exporting countries.

The government is pulled in many directions.

"My pension is tiny," said Lina S. Martinyenko, 76, a widow selling plastic bags of pickled cabbage on a Moscow sidewalk to supplement her pension of $98 a month. "I have to pay for my apartment. Groceries are expensive. What I grow in my garden I haul out here to sell. Life is not simple for us."

The challenge with Dutch disease - the name for what happened in the Netherlands after the discovery of North Sea gas in the 1960's - is that as more and more oil dollars come back to Russia, they are converted to the local currency, raising the value of that currency, along with the threat of inflation.

For Russia, the threat is that its manufacturing will decline as its goods become more expensive overseas, while imports rise as they become cheaper at home, leading to a de-industrialization of the economy. The problem is exactly the reverse of Russia's chronic economic troubles with a weak ruble in the 1990's.

"It always goes badly for Russia," Irina E. Yasina, director of the Open Russia research institute, fretted. "It's bad when we don't have money and bad when we do."

Still, Russia is better off with its current problem than it was a few years ago.

Some of the impact is already surfacing, as Russia is starting to rearm itself. For the first time in a decade, the government is buying more of Russia's arms production for the country's own needs rather than to resell as exports.

Spending on military hardware will rise 50 percent next year, Gen. Yuri N. Baluyevsky, the chief of the general staff, told the government newspaper Rossiskaya Gazeta in an interview published recently. The 2006 budget includes money for everything from new Sukhoi fighter jets to such prestige-enhancing items as lambskin hats for Russia's generals, an accoutrement abandoned by Boris N. Yeltsin when he was president in leaner times, in 1993.

On Nov. 1, Russia's Stabilization Fund reached $38 billion. It is projected to exceed $50 billion by the end of the year. Under the law that created it, the fund can be used only to pay down foreign debt or top off the state pension fund.

The World Bank, in a report released this month, said the appreciation of the ruble had already harmed domestic production. "Many industries are struggling," the report said. The ruble appreciated by 7.3 percent against a basket of currencies in the first nine months of this year, the bank said.

Russia missed its 10 percent inflation target last year, registering growth in prices of 11.7 percent. This year, inflation is running about 11 percent, according to Andrei N. Illarionov, President Vladimir V. Putin's economic adviser. High inflation threatens domestic industry and undermines gains in living standards.

Beginning in 2004, fears of inflation led Mr. Illarionov and other liberals in Russia's government to isolate oil revenue in the Stabilization Fund, modeled on a similar fund in Norway and the Alaska Permanent Fund. The money is kept out of circulation. For a time, that settled the question of what to do with the billions of dollars.

But Russia now intends to begin spending from its specialized oil revenue accounts through the creation of a second fund. The proposed new fund would invest in infrastructure through loan guarantees or co-financing backed by the oil tax income.

Even with inflationary constraints brought by the ruble's floating on international markets, the Kremlin is financially stronger than at any time since a similar spike in oil prices in the early 1980's.

Back then, the Soviet Union threw oil revenue into the final sprint of the cold war arms race, largely ignoring the rest of the economy, and plunging into the reforms begun by Premier Mikhail S. Gorbachev only after the prices came back down.

This time, Mr. Putin has suggested completing the Boguchansk hydroelectric dam in eastern Siberia, which was begun in Soviet times but was abandoned half finished. Russian news media floated the idea of finally completing the Baikal-Amur railway, another epic Soviet-era undertaking left unfinished.

Viktor B. Khristenko, the minister of energy and industry, is pushing a plan to use the new investment fund, expected to reach about $2.4 billion next year, to revive production of the Ruslan cargo jet, a Russian aviation behemoth able to carry 150 tons, the largest such jet in the world.

The government Web site posted a strategy paper on "measures intended to speed up growth and improve the competitiveness of the economy." It encouraged the creation of a government-owned venture capital fund for high- tech companies.

For now, the money from oil-related taxes - which kick in at oil prices above $20 a barrel - has simply been stacking up in an account in the Ministry of Finance. The money has not been invested in stocks or bonds and yields no interest, although it has appreciated along with the ruble's oil-driven rise in value against the dollar.

In a change of policy, the Finance Ministry said last month that it would invest the funds in foreign bonds and currency under a plan developed by Russia's Central Bank, another institution brimming with petroleum cash these days. The bank's foreign currency and gold reserves reached $164 billion on Oct. 28. Mr. Kudrin, whose ministry wants to tame inflation and use the funds mainly to pay down sovereign debt, has his detractors. Just about everybody else in government wants to start spending, either on infrastructure, social needs or re-arming the military, an option favored by a hard-line faction in the Kremlin.

Mr. Putin is moving cautiously. He recently urged restraint in spending, even as Russia faces many problems, and suggested continued commitment to the Stabilization Fund and large foreign debt payments even as domestic spending rises. Mr. Putin's political image is that of the guardian of stability; roller coaster exchange rates or inflation set off by mishandling money from the oil boom would hurt him politically.

Russia could "take advantage of the foreign economic situation which today favors our country and become mired in long-term projects," he said. But "in case the situation changes we would again have to incur debts in order to complete the projects started or cut spending sharply."

But then again, Mr. Putin also knows how to spend. At a Kremlin meeting with lawmakers in September, he also promised an additional $4 billion to raise doctors' salaries and other social spending next year.

How British Army is fast becoming foreign legion

THE Army has stopped actively recruiting Commonwealth and foreign soldiers because the numbers joining up have risen by nearly 3,000 per cent in seven years.

Imposing a cap on the number of Commonwealth and foreign soldiers allowed to serve in each infantry regiment has been discussed by army chiefs.

“It is after all supposed to be the British Army, not the Commonwealth Army,” one defence source said.

The sharp rise in Commonwealth recruits began a few years ago when army planners realised that there was an untapped source of soldiers in the Commonwealth who might be persuaded to join the British Army. Under the eligibility rules, recruits can join the Army if they are Commonwealth citizens or have dual nationality, of which one half must be British, or are citizens of the Irish Republic.

Defence sources said that the Army had now stopped actively recruiting in the Commonwealth, even though there was still a significant shortfall in manpower.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1871215,00.html

Monday, November 14, 2005

Talking About Tomorrow: Peter Drucker

The 'arch-guru of capitalism' argues that we need a new economic theory and new management model
January 1, 2000

CLAREMONT, Calif. -- Peter Drucker invented management -- not as a practice, but as a field of study. It's safe to say that no theorist in his field has a longer track record: He turned 90 years old in November. It was he who first asked managers to decentralize their operations and treat their employees like humans -- in the 1940s. The concept of "knowledge work" is his coinage, from the 1950s. He has remained consistently fresh and ahead of the times ever since, dubbed by Wired magazine as the "arch-guru of capitalism."

He grew up in Vienna, studied finance, and went to work as a newspaper reporter. In 1939 the first of his 28 books, "The End of Economic Man," also became his first bestseller when Winston Churchill hailed it publicly. A short time later, as a professor at Bennington College in Vermont, he spent two years observing General Motors Corp. from the inside. The resulting books, called "The Concept of the Corporation," cemented his reputation a management theorist and his career as a consultant to major corporations.

He remains an active professor at Claremont College's Peter F. Drucker School of Management. He was interviewed in his single-story home filled with books, Japanese art, and vinyl recordings of music by Bach.

-- Thomas Petzinger Jr.

Untenable Assumptions

The Wall Street Journal: Do we have a "new economy?"

Dr. Drucker: If by "new economy" you mean something in which a boom can go on forever, I don't think we have that. In Germany there were periods known as Founders Years, which you had in the 1830s with the railroad boom in Europe -- a very long period that seemed to defy the law of gravity only to end in a really spectacular collapse. Founders Years are periods of fundamental technological and economic transformation; you have long, heady years of certain enormous fortunes. You have that again in the 1860s, followed by the 1870s with the crash of the Vienna stock exchange that spread world-wide. So seven or even 10 years of boom are not unprecedented.

Whether there is a new economy, we don't know. But there is a need for new economic theory, which is something else again. Our economists, not just American economists, still consciously or subconsciously operate in terms of the old axioms.

WSJ: Such as?

Dr. Drucker: I would say that economics makes three assumptions that are no longer tenable -- three basic axioms on which economic theory is based. One is that the national economy is a unit of activity in which monetary and tax policy determines the behavior of both individuals and businesses. Secondly is the scarcity axiom. The third one is that if you sell something you alienate it, you have lost it. None of these is valid anymore.

WSJ: Let's unpack that. You say the national economy is no longer a unit?

Dr. Drucker: Goods and services are increasingly global, even if your market is purely regional, purely local. Your potential competition overnight can be from anyplace in the world. Someone has a nice niche in a regional market in Dayton, Ohio. Overnight, somebody from Denmark takes over the market.

WSJ: And within the U.S., the economy is splintering into smaller and smaller independent pieces. Isn't that so?

Dr. Drucker: Yes. Instead of seeing cycles of the economy, we may see cycles of industries. For instance, we had a fairly substantial cyclical recession in this country in the early '90s, but a good many industries were totally unaffected. Home Depot grew fastest in those years. On the other hand, traditional heavy industry had five very nasty years. So maybe the national economy is no longer a meaningful economic center.

WSJ: You also said the scarcity axiom was becoming obsolete. Do you mean the idea that things have value only insofar as they're limited in supply?

Dr. Drucker: What I mean is that the scarcity axiom does not pertain to information. Let me give you two examples, one where they understand this and one where they don't. I will not give company names.

There is the company that gave you the map and driving direction you used to get from the Los Angeles airport to my home; you go to the Internet, and they don't charge a penny. They make their money from advertising, which you have to look at to get these directions. They understand that the scarcity axiom does not apply to information because they can keep giving away information and receive more revenue in another way.

On the other hand, there is a major newspaper, one I am very fond of, which believes in selling subscriptions to the online edition of the paper, which is a total misunderstanding. It should be given away to create a larger subscription base.

This first company understands information, the second one has yet to learn.

WSJ: Let's move on to the third obsolete axiom.

Dr. Drucker: Economics holds that if you sell something, if you transfer something, you no longer have it. That does not apply to information. On the contrary, you have no information, basically, unless you share it. Sure, of course, you try to keep strategic information to yourself. But when your product is information, information accrues as you release it.

Some implications of this we don't understand, but some we begin to realize. For instance, our balance of payments is probably a total delusion. I don't know what percentage of the information industries today export. In terms of their own domestic prosperity, my guess is that 40% of the employment of Silicon Valley and the like comes out of information sold outside of the U.S. But how they get paid, we don't know.

There is a fourth assumption of economics which very few economists are aware of, which is that production, employment and value move in parallel. That is no longer true. In the 20th century, certainly since 1918, the relative value of the products of agriculture and minerals relative to manufactured goods has been going down by 1% a year compounded. At the same time, agricultural production has exploded the world over, even though agricultural employment has disappeared since World War I. That does not fit the assumptions of economists.

We face the same now in manufacturing in this country. Forty years ago in the late Eisenhower years, 35% of all the workers were in manufacturing. The figure is now less than 18%, while manufacturing production has tripled. Manufacturing prices are now going down at the rate of 1% a year compounded, which is one of the main reasons why we have no inflation.

Chains of Command

WSJ: Even if you don't commit to the idea of a new economy, you certainly seem to think we need a "new management."

Dr. Drucker: When we went into the modern corporation around 1870, we looked for a model. There was only one model. It was the Prussian Army. And in combat you have to have command. You have to have command in a crisis, someone who can say "This is it" and stop the yapping. But you are not in a crisis situation normally, and you have more time than you have in combat. So that model is no longer used in the military. I've done a fair amount of work at a tactical Air Force base. There is a colonel who is in charge of all the maintenance. The maintenance is done by a crew chief, who is a sergeant. If the sergeant says a plane is not ready to be flown, it isn't. Now, if he says it too often, you replace him. But as long as he is the crew chief, the colonel can't overrule him.

WSJ: Are corporations catching up to the military, or are they still following Frederick the Great?

Dr. Drucker: If you were to come on Saturday afternoon to my advanced management program, you would find 78 people, very successful people, 60% from business, 40% from elsewhere. They are upper-middle management. The companies don't send them to us unless they are the most successful, most promising people. And their bitterness about their management and their companies is unbelievable. They feel the financial people treat them like peons. What really offends them most is that the financial people think they can make them happy by bribing them.

WSJ: Bribing them with high salaries?

Dr. Drucker: Yes, and stock options, but not respecting them as professionals. And have you looked at turnover rates?

WSJ: Some places in Silicon Valley it's 30% a year.

Dr. Drucker: And in the pharmaceutical industry it is reaching 30%, where it used to be nil. And the cost of replacing one of these people is absolutely astronomical.

WSJ: So what is the answer?

Dr. Drucker: The answer is respect. Let me tell you a story.

I just spent 10 days in the hospital. This is our local hospital, and I know the administrator. Nine of those 10 days I was in good shape, but I had to lie flat and motionless because I had an IV in each arm. So all the nurses came and chatted with me. They came to me in the hope that I would get across to the administrator something that irked them. I won't tell you the details. It involved a change in policy imposed on the hospital by the HMOs that altered their professional status. They were being told what to do instead of being asked what should be done. They are used to that from physicians -- but not from administrators.

And all I had to do was, when the administrator came to say hello, I said, "Look, you are creating trouble with your nurses. Yes, the HMO put pressure on you. But instead of issuing orders, you should call in the senior nurse from each group and sit down with them. You explain the pressure from the HMOs and ask, 'How do we handle it best? What are your ideas?' They may curse. They may say that HMOs are perfectly stupid. But they should make the decision on how to handle it. They should be treated as professionals who know their job."

And he did it while I was still there. And in two days the atmosphere changed. The same nurses came to me and said, "This is again the place I like to work in." That was all he had to do.

WSJ: And will more businesses in the future take that kind of action?

Dr. Drucker: More and more have. More and more will. Because otherwise, the results aren't there. And more and more organizations are becoming conscious of the mobility of the good people -- which, you know, is a shock to most of them, those in the older generation. We grew up still with the belief that the employee needs the company more than the company needs him. Try to tell that to my grandchildren.

WSJ: They would laugh in my face.

Dr. Drucker: They don't even know what it means. Sure, some young workers are very greedy, very conscious of rapid promotion. But they also see themselves much more like craftsmen of old. It used to be the tradition that when the craftsman had finished his apprenticeship, he would spend five years traveling as a journeyman. Even in this country, up to the Linotype, the printer had his own fonts, his own tools. And the old saying was that he stayed in one place until he married. We are getting there again, except that you don't have to marry anymore.

Getting, and Giving, Satisfaction

WSJ: So what is the lesson for an employer? To honor craft? To honor personal fulfillment?

Dr. Drucker: Yes. It's not difficult! Put responsibility on your good people. Stop talking "empowerment." That's an obscene word.

WSJ: Certainly a patronizing word.

Dr. Drucker: Plus the fact that you take power from one place and put it in another, it is still power. Instead, talk responsibility. Look, who is the most successful in attracting and holding good people? The nonprofits. The satisfaction has to be greater than in business because there is no paycheck.

WSJ: Do our schools need to change?

Dr. Drucker: Our schools do not prepare people. The school is an invention of the eighth century. Antiquity didn't have schools in our sense. It had tutors. Then the monastery came. If you put one of those Benedictine monks into a modern high school, he would feel very comfortable. And in the 11th century came the convent and schools for girls. We really haven't changed all that much. The subjects have changed, but not much since the 19th century. We are becoming more specialized -- not less. There is no synthesis yet. Nobody teaches social sciences, the understanding of the behavior of people in institutions. They teach economics and psychology and sociology as if those things existed. They do not exist. They are contrivances. Nobody teaches numeracy. Mathematics, yes. But numeric literacy we don't know how to teach.

WSJ: How will this change?

Dr. Drucker: Traditionally, schools have not been changed by the needs of society or the changes in knowledge, but by external technology.

WSJ: Like the introduction of the book.

Dr. Drucker: Like the book. So online technology is going to have an incredible impact, but we don't know when and we don't know whether it will involve what is being taught or how it is being delivered. The history of the book would argue that we are very, very slow. It took 200 years for books to become used in schools. And things that could not be taught with the help of the book disappeared. Up until 1600, music was an integral part of education. It vanished after the book.

WSJ: You're a man of 90 in plainly robust health. What's the secret to your longevity?

Dr. Drucker: Two things. First, genetics, obviously. My father died at 91. My mother probably would have lived just as long if she hadn't been in an accident. Secondly, being a workaholic. I need stress.

WSJ: Always have to go against the grain, don't you?

Dr. Drucker: Look, stress is bad for people for whom stress is bad. The rest of us -- and I don't know what the proportion it is, but it is a large proportion -- we thrive. I set my own deadlines. I know they are fictitious, but they still put pressure on me. And I think that is the secret. My wife is 88. She is also a workaholic. But believe me, it is constitution more than anything else.

A Middle Class Made by Detroit Is Now Threatened by Its Slump

Henry Ford's Gold-Plated Pay
Belongs to an Older Era;
Realities of Globalization
The Brown Family Takes Stock
By JEFFREY MCCRACKEN
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 14, 2005; Page A1

COOPERSVILLE, Mich. -- Chris Brown needs to have a talk with three of his kids before the end of the year. He plans to tell them he probably won't be able to help pay for college anymore.

Mr. Brown, 47 years old, earns $26.09 an hour working the midnight shift at Delphi Corp.'s plant here, assembling fuel-injector parts. His pay, combined with generous health benefits, afforded his family a comfortable, middle-class lifestyle with enough left over for extras. But the troubled auto-parts maker -- which filed for bankrupty protection last month -- is restructuring and Delphi's U.S. factory workers will likely see their total wage package cut in half or more.

Mr. Brown doesn't have to look far to see what his future holds. His younger sister, Penny Austin, had a similar conversation with her children in late 2003 when her employer, auto-seat maker Lear Corp. slashed her pay to $18.64 an hour from $26.40. It also cut her benefits. "Christmas won't be the same anymore," she recalls telling her two kids. Mrs. Austin, 35, the family's biggest breadwinner, recently learned that Lear plans to close her plant. Another Lear facility nearby may be hiring -- at $12 an hour.

For earlier generations of auto workers, these jobs were more stable, better paying and came with gold-plated benefits. One beneficiary is the siblings' father, Adrian Brown, 72, who retired from General Motors Corp. after a 32-year career there. Under a recent deal between GM and the United Auto Workers union, he'll have to pay premiums on his health care for the first time.

"I don't want to complain because I will still be able to afford my house," says Chris Brown, sitting in his living room across from his sister. "I know, I know, we are blessed," she interrupts, as tears roll down her cheeks. "But it has felt like a slow death between the pay cut and now this with the plant." As she talks, tears well up in Mr. Brown's eyes, too.

The Brown and Austin families are among hundreds of thousands of people in the industrial Midwest who until recently were largely shielded from the whirlwind competition spawned by globalization. As blue-collar workers in textiles, chemicals and steel saw their paychecks shrink and jobs head overseas, auto workers and retirees were still setting a standard for the American middle class. They earned enough for a good home in Ohio, Indiana or Michigan, along with a couple of cars and maybe a boat or a Florida vacation.

But since 2001, Detroit's Big Three have been scrambling to keep up with Asian and European rivals. Over the past two years, new competition and higher gas prices have hammered sales of Detroit's most profitable vehicles. Auto giants started demanding that suppliers match prices offered by producers in lower-wage countries, or as Detroit dubbed it, "the China price." The downward price spiral has left several auto suppliers in bankruptcy and spurred painful changes at car makers.

The result: a collapse of the grand bargain between employees and employers that dates back to Henry Ford's promise of a $5 workday, paid vacations and generous health care and pensions. Back then, the auto industry helped elevate plant workers into the American middle class. Now, as it cuts wages and benefits -- not to mention jobs -- a sizable chunk of America's Midwest is being forced to step down a rung or two on the socio-economic ladder.

"The fact is, globalization, technological change, low-cost competition and deregulation mean there is no safe haven anymore, not even for the auto industry," says Robert Reich, an economist and former Clinton administration labor secretary.

Mr. Reich loosely defines middle-class households as those with an income of $35,000 to $75,000. He says auto-plant workers, despite being promised increasing wages and security in retirement by their employers and their unions, will increasingly fall into the working-class range of $15,000 to $35,000.

The U.S. auto industry, which employs about one million people, won a reprieve from global competition in the 1990s thanks to the surge in demand for sport-utility vehicles and pickup trucks. Most of those vehicles were built by GM, Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG with parts made by their U.S. suppliers. The SUV boom pumped billions into their bank accounts and helped paper over the industry's long-term structural problems, notably the high cost of labor and long-term health-care liabilities.

In those days, when auto makers tried to press the UAW for concessions, the union refused. In 1998, a cost-cutting effort by GM prompted a costly, three-month strike. After that, auto makers and the UAW generally opted to keep factories rolling rather than fight over issues that didn't seem pressing.

But now, after the collapse in sales and sudden exposure to competition from overseas, high-wage manufacturers such as Delphi have ripped up their labor agreements. About 25,000 UAW workers at Delphi once earned the equivalent of about $65 an hour in wages and benefits. Delphi now wants its hourly workers -- 34,000 in total -- to accept pay and benefits packages totaling between $20 and $25 an hour. Delphi wants wages to fall from about $26 an hour to about $9 an hour.

On Dec. 16, if it hasn't reached a deal with its unions, Delphi can ask the court hearing its bankruptcy petition to void its existing labor deals. A judge can impose new contracts more favorable to Delphi in late January. Beyond the wage cuts, Delphi could eliminate about 30% of its union jobs. As a result, the UAW has made early concessions over benefits at other companies to try and avoid a repeat of this drastic scenario.

Under Pressure

The bankruptcies of Delphi and plastics-and-fabrics supplier Collins & Aikman Corp., which employs 23,000 people world-wide, could cascade through the sector. If Delphi and Collins slash wages and move plants offshore, rival auto-parts suppliers could feel pressure to follow suit. Visteon Corp, which employs 18,000 workers, was recently bailed out by Ford and its future is uncertain. The airline industry recently experienced a similar dynamic.

This is one reason why investors such as billionaire Wilbur Ross are zeroing in on the auto-parts industry. But even Mr. Ross, who made billions during the steel industry's restructuring, says the implications for workers trouble him.

"Historically, these jobs had been some of the premier industrial jobs in the country," he says. "I really do worry and hope some semblance of the American standard of living can be saved for these folks."

Trouble in the U.S. auto industry is leaving thousands of workers, especially in the Midwest, either without jobs, or with jobs that pay less than they did in the 1990s. The number of people working for auto-parts companies has fallen 20% to about 669,000 today, compared with 840,000 in 2000.

The region hit the hardest, say economists, is the 450-mile radius around Detroit, where plants were built to be a day's drive from Motor City. Michigan alone has lost 71,000 of its auto-parts jobs since 2000, out of a total of 226,000, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Also hit hard are Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and the Canadian province of Ontario, just across the border.

Auto-parts pay has stagnated the past three years at about $20 an hour, a flattening not seen in other manufacturing sectors during the same period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Accounting for increased gas and health-care costs and falling retirement benefits, total compensation for these workers has probably fallen.

A Role in Politics

The job losses in Michigan and Ohio could play a role in national politics. The combined 37 electoral votes in those two swing states were up for grabs until the final days of the 2004 presidential election. Michigan has been reliably Democrat in presidential elections, but gave Sen. John Kerry only a narrow 51% to 48% victory in 2004.

Michigan's Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm is stuck with the nation's fifth-highest unemployment rates, 6.4%, and is up for re-election in 2006. She's supporting legislation that would give interest-free loans to any student who studies in fields such as engineering and stays in Michigan after graduation.

Chris Brown never intended to be an auto-parts worker. He went to school to become a teacher or to work in government. He got a bachelor's degree in political science and economics from Calvin College, a Christian liberal arts college based in Grand Rapids.

"I thought I'd work in Lansing or Washington, D.C., but I downsized my dreams when I had the kids," says Mr. Brown, who sat on his local city council for 14 years and has served as an elected UAW official. He's back in school now, earning a master's degree in public administration. He's paying for the education himself and isn't planning to cut back.

When Mr. Brown graduated in 1981, the only job he could find was in a cafeteria making $10 an hour, the same wage Delphi is now proposing he accept. In 1984, a job opened up at the Coopersville fuel-injector parts plant then owned by GM, paying $15 an hour plus full benefits.

Mr. Brown's father, a longtime GM worker, said he could get his son the job. Mr. Brown's second child had just been born two months premature. "The whole reason I took this job was for the health-care benefits and what it could do for my family. We had a hospital bill of $35,000 that had to get paid," says Mr. Brown. He was a GM employee until 1999 when the auto maker spun off Delphi.

His plant, which employs 570 hourly workers, is located on a tree-lined street with fruit stands, several churches and small, brick homes. Mr. Brown lives less than a mile from the plant. Coopersville is about three hours from Detroit, in a Republican-dominated part of Michigan.

The job as a machine operator let Mr. Brown transform his family's lifestyle. Their two-bedroom, 900-square-foot, aluminum-sided bungalow is now a four-bedroom, 2,000-square-foot home. The wood-floored living room and dining room is filled with plants, small pumpkins and a wooden cuckoo clock that sings every half hour. A sign out front says "Busy Mom Sewing," alerting the world to Mr. Brown's wife, Kathy, a full-time seamstress. They have three automobiles: a 1989 Dodge Caravan minivan, a 1992 Dodge Ram pickup truck and a 1996 Dodge Intrepid. All have 150,000 miles or more on the odometer.

The family took infrequent vacations, preferring to use their extra money on functions with the local Catholic church. They did take one extended vacation this August, a two-week trip to Ireland to show Mr. Brown's parents "where they are from."

At the end of this year, Mr. Brown says he plans to sit down with one daughter and two sons and tell them he can no longer help pay for tuition or books. He's also planning to tell them not to quit school. One son has just graduated. His daughter is studying to be a veterinarian and another son is studying computer engineering. The fourth child is starting community college, but hasn't decided what field to pursue.

Mr. Brown says he hasn't been sleeping well lately. Like many Delphi workers, he questions why his wages, and not management, are blamed for Delphi's problems. "I've been well-compensated, but I don't feel I should apologize for it," he says. "I'm not an unskilled laborer, nor are my co-workers. The company knew they had these legacy costs, why didn't they set aside the money for it?"

Delphi's new chairman and chief executive, Robert "Steve" Miller, says the company made a "good-faith effort to outrun a labor-cost issue that has become unsustainable. We no longer have the cash resources to pay premium labor costs...We have to face reality."

Mr. Miller acknowledges the difficulties Delphi's work force faces but says workers have to make sacrifices just like others with stakes in the company, such as its bondholders. The notions of industrial workers being taken care of for life no longer works, he says.

"Delphi is a flashpoint, a test case, for all the economic trends and social trends that are on a collision course in our country and around the globe," Mr. Miller says.

A former labor negotiator for Chrysler Corp., he has been through this process before. As head of Bethlehem Steel in 2002 during the steelmaker's Chapter 11 restructuring, Mr. Miller streamlined the company's operations. He also terminated its $3.7 billion pension plan before selling the business to financier Mr. Ross.

Mrs. Austin has spent the past 22 months going through the cost-of-living crunch her brother is about to face. The first thing she noticed was how much faster bills piled up. She also had to quit giving her kids Megan, 16, and Tyler, 14, a "20-dollar-bill so they could go to a high-school football game or whatever." Her husband, Jeffrey, 41, has a job in car repossession, but it doesn't pay as much as her job with Lear once did.

The family stopped going out to dinner and Penny gave up collecting candles and dishes. She's also looking to get rid of one of her family's four cars. In 2002, before her wages were cut, Mrs. Austin and her husband bought their first new automobile, a Lincoln Town car.

"What's hardest is I liked being able to spoil my kids or spoil my [nieces and nephews], to buy them things. That was part of my self-worth I guess. I liked buying things for other people and now I can't," she says, wiping away some tears.

Because of crying episodes like this one, Mrs. Austin says she rarely talks about losing her job. She did bring it up to her kids recently, a story which makes her laugh because her son "got all happy when I told him. He was excited mom would be home more and I could take him to school in the morning."

Her Lear plant, located in Grand Rapids, a few miles from Coopersville, used to employ 3,000 people, notes Danny Rau who owns the nearby Danny's Beverage, a liquor store. He recently laid off two assistants. "We don't get all the guys in here at lunch buying lottery tickets and cigarettes anymore," says Mr. Rau.

The plant's nearly empty parking lot is becoming overrun with weeds that crack the cement. The yellow rails that run around the border are chipped. The plant officially closed last week and Mrs. Austin and some other workers will stay through the end of the year helping close the place down. They'll also receive a $50,000 buyout, money Mrs. Austin says she'll use for rent and some utility bills.

Mrs. Austin and her family live in a 3,600-square-foot house on a nearby farm owned by her mother and father, Judie and Adrian. Judie says she depends on rent paid by her daughter's family to pay some bills. The older couple raised eight kids on Adrian's three decades working for GM and now have 27 grandchildren. He retired in 1998.

In preparation for the coming changes, Penny's teenage son Tyler is planning to pitch in. He's going to grow soybeans and winter wheat on 15 acres of the family's farmland.

Sunday, November 13, 2005

Violence and the Ghettos in France, Thugs in Australia

Sandra and her sister grew up in the nearby Clichy-sous-Bois suburb, where the riots broke out after the accidental death of two teenage boys on Oct. 27. The violence spread across France, with young men venting deep anger about racism, unemployment and a bleak future. But not many girls have taken part, and many say they are fed up with consecutive nights of violence. Apart from poverty, feminists say the dominance of traditional cultures among families of Arab and black African origin, combined with the growing role of Islam in the suburbs, have contributed to the harsh treatment girls get there. Pressure is mounting for Muslim women to wear veils. Forced marriages that snatch them from college and career -- where they do much better than their male schoolmates -- are on the rise.

The support group "Ni Putes, Ni Soumises" ("Neither Whores nor Submissives") says the number of forced marriages has risen in recent years, with roughly 70,000 girls pressured into unwanted relationships each year in France.

The New French Revolution
“There was a trial in Lille where a 13-year-old girl was gang raped by 80 men. Sometimes, it’s 80, or 50 or 10. It’s absolutely terrible,” says Bellil. “In the case of Argenteuil, it was horrible. A young woman was raped in a school. Of course, everybody knew, but they're so afraid of these young men that they prefer to close their eyes. That's the price of peace in the ghettos.

When the verdicts came down in this case, the courthouse turned into a madhouse. Eighteen teenagers were convicted of raping a 15-year-old girl over a two-month period. But what really shocked France was how the mothers of those boys reacted.

You call this justice, seven years in prison for some oral says one mother. It's the girl who should be behind bars.
Supporters of terrorists who were recently taken into custody in the anti-terrorism sweep savagely beat up a newspaper cameraman and reporter outside the Melborne Magistrates' Court 2 days back.

Iran Hiding Nuclear Weapons Program

In mid Oct, communist parties in India protested against India's vote against Iran in the Security Council. Is the reputation of the communist parties and the Left in India going to sink even further once this Nytimes report gets widespread coverage in the press and diplomatic circles?

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Relying on Computer, U.S. Seeks to Prove Iran's Nuclear Aims

In mid-July, senior American intelligence officials called the leaders of the international atomic inspection agency to the top of a skyscraper overlooking the Danube in Vienna and unveiled the contents of what they said was a stolen Iranian laptop computer.

The Americans flashed on a screen and spread over a conference table selections from more than a thousand pages of Iranian computer simulations and accounts of experiments, saying they showed a long effort to design a nuclear warhead, according to a half-dozen European and American participants in the meeting.

The documents, the Americans acknowledged from the start, do not prove that Iran has an atomic bomb. They presented them as the strongest evidence yet that, despite Iran's insistence that its nuclear program is peaceful, the country is trying to develop a compact warhead to fit atop its Shahab missile, which can reach Israel and other countries in the Middle East.

The briefing for officials of the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency, including its director Mohamed ElBaradei, was a secret part of an American campaign to increase international pressure on Iran. But while the intelligence has sold well among countries like Britain, France and Germany, which reviewed the documents as long as a year ago, it has been a tougher sell with countries outside the inner circle.

The computer contained studies for crucial features of a nuclear warhead, said European and American officials who had examined the material, including a telltale sphere of detonators to trigger an atomic explosion. The documents specified a blast roughly 2,000 feet above a target - considered a prime altitude for a nuclear detonation.

Nonetheless, doubts about the intelligence persist among some foreign analysts. In part, that is because American officials, citing the need to protect their source, have largely refused to provide details of the origins of the laptop computer beyond saying that they obtained it in mid-2004 from a longtime contact in Iran. Moreover, this chapter in the confrontation with Iran is infused with the memory of the faulty intelligence on Iraq's unconventional arms. In this atmosphere, though few countries are willing to believe Iran's denials about nuclear arms, few are willing to accept the United States' weapons intelligence without question.

"I can fabricate that data," one senior European diplomat said of the documents. "It looks beautiful, but is open to doubt."

Robert G. Joseph, the under secretary of state for arms control and international security, who led the July briefing, declined to discuss any classified material from the session but acknowledged the existence of the warhead intelligence. He called it one of many indicators "that together lead to the conclusion Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons capability."

Even if the documents accurately reflect Iran's advances in designing a nuclear warhead, Western arms experts say that Iran is still far away from producing the radioactive bomb fuel that would form the warhead's heart. American intelligence agencies recently estimated that Iran would have a working nuclear weapon no sooner than the early years of the next decade.

Still, nuclear analysts at the international atomic agency studied the laptop documents and found them to be credible evidence of Iranian strides, European diplomats said. A dozen officials and nuclear weapons experts in Europe and the United States with detailed knowledge of the intelligence said in interviews that they believed it reflected a concerted effort to develop a warhead. "They've worked problems that you don't do unless you're very serious," said one European arms official. "This stuff is deadly serious."

In fact, some nations that were skeptical of the intelligence on Iraq - including France and Germany - are deeply concerned about what the warhead discovery could portend, according to several officials. But the Bush administration, seeming to understand the depth of its credibility problem, is only talking about the laptop computer and its contents in secret briefings, more than a dozen so far. And even while President Bush is defending his pronouncements before the war about Iraq's unconventional weapons, he has never publicly referred to the Iran documents.

R. Nicholas Burns, the under secretary of state for political affairs, who has coordinated the Iran issue with the Europeans, also declined to discuss the intelligence, but insisted that the Bush administration's approach was one of "careful, quiet diplomacy designed to increase international pressure on Iran to do one thing: abandon its nuclear weapons designs and return to negotiations with European countries."

Until now, there has been only one official reference to them: a year ago in a conversation with reporters, Colin L. Powell, then secretary of state, briefly referred to new, missile-related intelligence on Iran. Since then, reports in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post and other publications have revealed some details of the intelligence, including that the United States has obtained thousands of pages of Iranian documents on warhead development.

In interviews in recent weeks, analysts and officials from six countries in Europe and Asia revealed a more extensive picture of the intelligence briefings. In turn, several American officials confirmed the intelligence. All who spoke did so on the condition of anonymity, saying they had pledged to keep the intelligence secret, though it is being discussed by an array of senior government officials and International Atomic Energy Agency board members.

Officials said scientists at the American weapons labs, as well as foreign analysts, had examined the documents for signs of fraud. It was a particular concern given the fake documents that emerged several years ago purporting to show that Saddam Hussein had sought uranium from Niger. Officials said they found the warhead documents, written in Persian, convincing because of their consistency and technical accuracy and because they showed a progression of developmental work from 2001 to early 2004.

Within the United States government, "the nature and the history of the source has left everyone pretty confident that this is the real thing," said a former senior American intelligence official who was briefed on the laptop.

But one nongovernment expert cautioned that the intelligence could simply represent the work of a faction in Iran. "What we don't know is whether this is the uncoordinated effort of a particularly ambitious sector of the rocket program or is it, as some allege, a step-by-step effort to field a nuclear weapon within this decade," said Joseph Cirincione of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who said he had not seen the secret documents.

The Iranians themselves deny any knowledge of the warhead plans. "We are sure that there are no such documents in Iran," Ali A. Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and the country's chief nuclear negotiator, said in an interview in Tehran. "I have no idea what they have or what they claim to have. We just hear the claims."

As a measure of the skepticism the Bush administration faces, officials said the American ambassador to the international atomic agency, Gregory L. Schulte, was urging other countries to consult with his French counterpart. "On Iraq we disagreed, and on Iran we completely agree," said a senior State Department official. "That gets attention."

Inspectors and Secret Sites

For years, American intelligence agencies argued that Iran was hiding a range of nuclear facilities. Then, in February 2003, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency went to Iran and confirmed reports of two secret sites under construction that could make concentrated uranium and plutonium, standard fuels for nuclear arms. At Natanz, they found preparations for more than 50,000 whirling centrifuges meant to purify uranium. At Arak, they found construction of a heavy-water plant and reactor meant to make plutonium.

Iran insisted the sites were for conducting peaceful research and making fuel for nuclear power, and were kept secret to evade American-led penalties on sales of atomic technology to Iran.

Over time, a string of revelations challenged that explanation, even as inspectors eventually uncovered at least seven secret nuclear sites.

In August 2003, agency inspectors discovered traces of uranium concentrated to the high levels necessary for a bomb, rather than the low levels for a power-producing reactor. Some of the uranium was shown to have arrived in Iran on nuclear equipment purchased from Pakistan, but a European diplomat disclosed that the origin of the rest was still a mystery.

Then there were questions about what Iran had obtained from the atomic black market run by Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Pakistani rogue nuclear engineer. Iran has acknowledged buying from Dr. Khan, but the extent of those dealings is still under investigation.

By late 2003, many government and nongovernment experts agreed that Iran was rapidly progressing. "Most people," said Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control in Washington, "believed that they had mastered the essential capabilities and had the potential to develop what they needed to make a bomb."

Diplomacy aimed at defusing Iran moved haltingly. Tehran agreed to suspend the enrichment of uranium as it negotiated with the West over the fate of its atom program, but months later began making uranium hexafluoride, the raw material for enrichment.

If Iran hid parts of its atomic program, it boldly displayed its missiles. And in August 2004, it conducted a test that deepened suspicions that it was at work on a nuclear warhead.

Tehran test fired an upgraded version of the Shahab - shooting star in Persian - in a flight that featured the first appearance of an advanced nose cone made up of three distinct shapes. Missile experts noted that such triconic nose cones have great range, accuracy and stability in flight, but less payload space. Therefore, experts say, they have typically been used to carry nuclear arms.

Iran insists it is pursuing only peaceful energy, and notes that nations like Japan, South Korea and Brazil have advanced civilian nuclear programs and sophisticated missiles, but have been aided by the West in building their programs rather than being accused of trying to make atomic warheads.

"Second-class countries are allowed to produce only tomato paste," said Mr. Larijani, Iran's nuclear negotiator. "The problem is that Iran has come out of its shell and is trying to have advanced technology."

A Laptop's Contents

American officials have said little in their briefings about the origins of the laptop, other than that they obtained it in mid-2004 from a source in Iran who they said had received it from a second person, now believed to be dead. Foreign officials who have reviewed the intelligence speculate that the laptop was used by someone who worked in the Iranian nuclear program or stole information from it. One senior arms expert said the material was so voluminous that it appeared to be the work of a team of engineers.

Without revealing the source of the computer, American intelligence officials insisted that it had not come from any Iranian resistance groups, whose claims about Iran's nuclear program have had a mixed record for accuracy.

In July, as the Bush administration began stepping up the pressure on the United Nations to take punitive action against Tehran, it decided to brief Dr. ElBaradei on the contents of the laptop. The session on July 18 0n the top floor of the American mission in Vienna was a meeting of former rivals. Before the Iraq war, Dr. ElBaradei had attracted the wrath of the Bush administration by declaring that his agency had found no evidence that Saddam Hussein was reconstituting his nuclear program. And the administration had tried to oust Dr. ElBaradei, an Egyptian, from his post, partly because they found him insufficiently tough on Iran.

The briefing primarily revealed computer simulations and studies of various warhead configurations rather than laboratory work or reports on test flights, according to officials in Europe and the United States. But one American official said notations indicated that the Iranians had performed experiments. "This wasn't just some theoretical exercise," he said.

In an interview, Dr. ElBaradei, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last month, declined to discuss the briefing.

Assessing just how far the Iranians have gone from plan to product is difficult. "It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that beautiful pictures represent reality," said a senior intelligence official. "But that may not be the case."

One major revelation was work done on a sphere of detonators meant to ignite conventional explosives that, in turn, compress the radioactive fuel to start the nuclear chain reaction. The documents also wrestled with how to position a heavy ball - presumably of nuclear fuel - inside the warhead to ensure stability and accuracy during the fiery plunge toward a target. And a bomb exploding at a height of about 2,000 feet, as envisioned by the documents, suggests a nuclear weapon, analysts said, since that altitude is unsuitable for conventional, chemical or biological arms.

After more than a year of analysis, questions remain about the trove's authenticity. "Even with the best intelligence, you always ask yourself, 'Was this prepared for my eyes?' " one American official said. Several intelligence experts said that a sophisticated Western spy agency could, in theory, have produced the contents of the laptop. But American officials insisted there was no evidence of such a fraud.

Gary Samore, the head of nonproliferation at the National Security Council in the Clinton administration, who recently directed a report on Iran that drew on interviews with government officials in many nations, said, "The most convincing evidence that the material is genuine is that the technical work is so detailed that it would be difficult to fabricate."

An Intelligence Briefing

In August and September, as the United States was preparing for a showdown vote at the International Atomic Energy Agency on whether to recommend action by the United Nations Security Council against Iran, the Bush administration stepped up its campaign.

The United States rarely shares raw intelligence outside a small circle of close allies. But it decided to disseminate a shortened version of the secret warhead briefing. Mr. Joseph and his colleagues presented it to the president of Ghana and to officials from Argentina, Sri Lanka, Tunisia and Nigeria, among other nations.

But the administration felt uncomfortable sharing any classified intelligence with another ring of countries. For them, it developed the equivalent of the white paper on Iraq that Britain and the United States published before the war. The 43-page unclassified briefing includes no reference to the warhead documents, but uses commercial satellite photos and economic analysis to argue that Iran has no need for nuclear power and has long hidden its true ambitions.

Analysts from the Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory wrote the briefing paper for the State Department, which distributed it widely. In graphic detail, the paper offers a tour of the previously hidden sites, saying, for instance, that a "dummy" building at the centrifuge plant in Natanz hides a secret entrance ramp to an underground factory.

The briefing asserted that Iran did not have enough proven uranium reserves to fuel its nuclear power program beyond 2010. But it does have enough uranium, the report added, "to give Iran a significant number of nuclear weapons."

The briefing landed with something of a thud. Some officials found its arguments superficial and inconclusive. "Yeah, so what?" said one European expert who heard the briefing. "How do you know what you're shown on a slide is true given past experience?"

Even so, the American campaign helped produce a consensus among International Atomic Energy Agency board members, although a fragile one. On Sept. 24, the board passed the resolution against Iran by a vote of 22 to 1, with 12 countries abstaining, including China and Russia.

It cited Iran for "a long history of concealment and deception" and repeated failure to live up to its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which it signed in 1970. The resolution said Iran's failings had set it up for consideration by the Security Council for possible punishment with economic penalties, though it left the timing of the referral to a future meeting.

Manouchehr Mottaki, Iran's foreign minister, denounced the resolution as "illegal and illogical" and the result of a "planned scenario determined by the United States."

Debating the Next Step

On Thanksgiving, Nov. 24, the board of the international atomic agency plans to meet again to confront the Iranian nuclear question - and decide whether to take the next step and send the issue to the Security Council.

The Bush administration is confident in its evidence. "There is not a single country we deal with that does not believe Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon," said Mr. Burns, the under secretary of state.

The Iranians have taken steps to forestall any penalties. After months of delays, they have allowed inspectors into a secret military site, shared more information about the history of their program, and signaled a willingness to reopen negotiations, even while vowing to continue turning raw uranium into a gas that can be enriched. Those steps may convince some atomic agency board members. And at least two countries rotating onto the board for the next meeting - Cuba and Syria - are almost certain to defy Washington. (In September, only Venezuela voted with Tehran.)

Given those politics, the fresh intelligence that the United States says proves Iran's true intentions may have a less than pivotal effect on the long confrontation with Tehran. One reason is that the United States has so far refused to declassify the warhead information, making it impossible to seek a detailed explanation from the Iranians.

Dr. ElBaradei said his agency was bound to "follow due process, which means I need to establish the veracity, consistency and authenticity of any intelligence, and share it with the country of concern." In this case, he added, "That has not happened."

European nations and the international atomic agency are now working out details of a new proposal that offers Tehran the chance to conduct very limited nuclear activities in Iran, but move any enrichment of uranium to Russia - part of the effort to keep the country from obtaining the nuclear fuel that could go atop the Shahab missile.

Some European diplomats are concerned that confronting the Iranians with strong evidence of the warhead studies could cause Tehran to abandon negotiations with the West, expel international inspectors and move forward with their plans, whatever they may be.

"It's a card that will explode the system in place, so the question becomes when and how you play it," said a senior European diplomat. "If there is information that can serve to make progress with the Iranians, without blowing up the system, that's better."

Dexter Filkins contributed reporting from Tehranfor this article.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/international/middleeast/13nukes.html?hp&ex=1131858000&en=1cf163da1b519f36&ei=5094&partner=homepage

Saturday, November 12, 2005

Desperate Search for Justice: One Man vs. China

If criminal courts are so arbitrary, one wonders how well developed the justice system is in China. Is the law of the jungle still prevalent for Corporates who do business there? Hope this article puts pressure on the communist govt to give this case a fair hearing.
 
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By JIM YARDLEY
CHAOHU, China - At his most desperate, when he had no more borrowed money for his son's legal defense, Xie Yujun went to a hospital. He knew of China's black market in body parts. He wanted to sell his eyes. He was refused.
 
Mr. Xie, 60, is no stranger to desperate acts, if by necessity. His son was charged with a savage knife attack here in rural Anhui Province that left a mother and daughter badly wounded. The police suspected the son because of a property dispute between the families. But Mr. Xie believed the case was deeply flawed: the victims never identified the attacker. The only evidence was a questionable shoeprint. Police misconduct was blatant.
 
Mr. Xie's problem was convincing a court. His son's lawyers had no chance to question witnesses or, initially, to examine evidence. At one point, Mr. Xie himself sneaked into a prison to interview a witness. Even a tantalizing appeals court victory proved hollow. The son was tried again and sentenced to life in prison.
 
"There must be one person in the Communist Party who is honest and who believes in justice," Mr. Xie said. "If I can't even find one, then the party is not going to last long."
 
China's authoritarian government once relied on ideology and brute force to bind and regulate society. Now, it is asking citizens like Mr. Xie to have faith in the country's legal system to resolve disputes and mete out justice.
 
But Mr. Xie's plaintive cry poses a fundamental question about China's promise of rule of law: Is it possible for a criminal defendant to get a fair trial?
 
For most of the 56-year history of the People's Republic of China, the answer, by any standard, has been no. But in 1996, facing international and domestic pressure, China introduced reforms that expanded a criminal defendant's right to counsel and sought to create a more impartial judiciary.
 
Yet today the inadequacy of those reforms, and the reluctance of the ruling Communist Party to make meaningful change, is abundantly evident. The criminal trial of Mr. Xie's son was one of 770,947 adjudicated last year. Of that total, 99.7 percent ended in convictions.
 
Conviction rates are also high in the United States, especially in federal criminal cases. But legal experts say that American prosecutors more often decline to indict in weak cases, and that judges and juries retain the autonomy to deliver innocent verdicts in even the most high-profile cases.
 
The stark imbalance in China reflects a fundamental contradiction for China's top leaders. They want people like Mr. Xie to trust the legal system because public support is essential in ensuring social stability. But they believe the law should enhance, not erode, government power, and have shown little inclination to replace a system that guarantees convictions with one that guarantees the rights of the accused.
 
A quarter century ago, after the chaos of Mao's Cultural Revolution, China essentially had no legal system. In that context, it has made significant strides. The 1996 reforms were intended to shift toward an adversarial trial process, modeled in part after the American system. Instead, the reforms have become most notable for what was left out.
 
"They didn't put in rules of evidence," said Jonathan Hecht, deputy director of the China Law Center at Yale University. "They didn't put in requirements that witnesses appear at trial. Lawyers weren't given the ability to really prepare a case. They kind of created the shell of an adversarial process, but they didn't create the guts of it."
 
At the same time, the police, prosecutors and judges now often disregard the protections that Chinese law does offer. A defendant, for instance, has the right to see a lawyer after the initial interrogation, or usually within 24 hours. Yet a police survey in Beijing found that over the past two years, only 14.5 percent of defendants in the city had seen a lawyer in the first 48 hours.
 
Other obstacles facing defendants are abundant: defense lawyers deemed too aggressive can be indicted by the prosecutors opposing them in court; appellate courts rarely overturn convictions; rulings often are decided by unseen committees for whom political considerations can be as important as the law.
 
The problems are so flagrant that calls for reforms are coming from inside and outside the government. The National People's Congress is considering proposals for another major revamping of criminal procedure laws. In a handful of cities, experiments in reform are under way, like allowing defense lawyers to be present at interrogations. But it remains uncertain whether any changes will be approved, and, if so, what they will be.
 
In Chaohu, the police, prosecutors and court officials refused requests for interviews about the case of Mr. Xie's son, Xie Shude. The Chaohu Public Security Bureau described the case as "routine." The two victims of the attack declined to be interviewed.
 
But Mr. Xie's plight illustrates all the tensions and problems in the criminal justice system. He repeatedly demanded his son's rights, only to learn how circumscribed those rights were. He learned that if Chinese law does not explicitly treat a suspect as guilty until proven innocent, it does so in practice.
 
For more than a year, Mr. Xie navigated two trials and two appeals. Ultimately, he found his only recourse was outside the usual channels of modern jurisprudence and held a rare private meeting in June with two powerful judges.
 
It would be the modern equivalent of an audience with the emperor.
 
Father-and-Son Arrests
 
On the night of March 21, 2004, neighbors in the massive Xiyuan New Housing Village heard screams from a sixth-floor apartment. An intruder had repeatedly slashed a mother and daughter with a vegetable knife and escaped down the public stairwell. The case scandalized this city in the fertile, green fields of central China's breadbasket.
 
Two days after the attack, the police approached Xie Yujun, the father, and told him he was a suspect. He had had a property dispute with the husband of the woman who was attacked. The husband had bought an apartment from Mr. Xie but was delinquent in his payment. Mr. Xie had sued.
 
Mr. Xie, an emotional, combative man with a silver crew cut, said the police had demanded that he "prove that he is innocent." He had been jobless since being laid off by a state-owned construction company nearly a decade before. He and his wife survived on the $80 a month she earned selling vegetables. They had sold the apartment to raise money.
 
At the police station, investigators took Mr. Xie's fingerprints and pushed him into a bare cell for a night. Then a few minutes later, he recalled, the cell door slid open and another man was shoved inside.
 
"It was my son," Mr. Xie said.
 
The son, Xie Shude, 32, lived in the same apartment complex as the victim. Family members say he is the opposite of his father. If Xie Yujun can be loud and argumentative, Xie Shude is quiet and meek. Father and son had drifted apart after the son had married a peasant girl and moved out. The son sold grilled kebabs on the street and had opened a small shop.
 
"He has never done anything bad," said Huang Zeyun, 36, the son's wife. "He would rather get taken advantage of than be in a quarrel."
 
In the cell, father and son slept together on a wooden board. Both men had been fingerprinted and threatened by investigators. In an interrogation room, a detective had slammed a pistol on a table and warned Xie Shude, "If you don't confess, we will skin you alive."
 
But the son, like the father, maintained his innocence and the two men were released the next morning. Xie Yujun believes the fingerprints must not have matched.
 
The Chaohu attack came as unease about crime was rippling across China. Even as more Chinese were demanding legal rights, the public was also demanding that the government halt the steady rise of crime. A murder spree by a university student in western China had recently set off a nationwide manhunt and stoked public fears.
 
In Chaohu, the television station and newspaper gave the local knife attack a nickname, the 3/21 case, after the date it occurred. Every major government and Communist Party official in Chaohu demanded an arrest, according to the local newspaper.
 
Investigators must "devote all their energy to solving the case, ease people's worries and maintain social security and stability," said Chen Chunyu, head of the public security bureau, according to the Chaohu Daily.
 
In this atmosphere, on April 9, about two weeks after he was released from jail, Mr. Xie's son disappeared.
 
Mr. Xie heard from neighbors that men in dark clothes had pushed his son into a car. He went to police headquarters, but no one would discuss his son's whereabouts. Only when Mr. Xie filed a missing persons report did the police admit the son was in custody. They would hold him incommunicado for seven days.
 
The arrest of Xie Shude was later announced in the newspaper. The stated motive was revenge over the property dispute. The police had used those seven days to extract two pieces of evidence: a shoeprint and a confession.
 
A Taste of Chinese Justice
 
For Xie Yujun, the first obstacle to mounting his son's defense was money. He approached friends and relatives for loans, promising repayment after his son's exoneration. He was convinced of his son's innocence after their night together in jail.
 
"I thought telling the truth was the only way out," the father recalled. "I told him if he really did it, he would have to confess.
 
"My son said, 'Really, I did not do it.' "
 
Mr. Xie felt his obligation was not only to his son. In traditional Chinese society, where respect, or "face," is a paramount virtue, the arrest had stained the reputation of his entire extended family. Some elderly family members had even ceased their outdoor exercises to avoid seeing neighbors. As the father, Mr. Xie was obligated by Chinese tradition to cleanse the stain.
 
"It has put shame on the whole family," he said of the case.
 
Mr. Xie knew little about the law. As a teenager, he had missed an education when Mao ordered millions of city dwellers to labor in the countryside. But he started buying books on criminal procedure law. He also visited law firms to ask questions.
 
He concluded that the case against his son was riddled with flaws. The indictment accused the son of acting out of "revenge" over his father's property dispute. But the indictment failed to mention that Mr. Xie had already won the lawsuit. At the time of the attack Mr. Xie was waiting for the family to pay him about $600 and, he said, the payment period had not expired.
 
The police produced jailhouse witnesses who claimed to have overheard the son confess to the attack. But Mr. Xie pretended to be a relative and slipped into the prison. He recorded one of the witnesses saying that the police had coerced his testimony. Later, Mr. Xie handed the tape to the judge.
 
The son's confessions also proved coerced. The son had made eight confessions and one recantation. But he later told lawyers and family members that police beat him with sticks and kept him awake for seven days. He said he had confessed to end the torment.
 
"I told him I didn't blame him for going along with the confession," Mr. Xie said. "I understood."
 
The victims' account of the attack also raised questions. At the crime scene, the husband told the police that his wife had seen three attackers. But, later, the wife told the police she had seen only one. Court papers show she did not initially identify her attacker. Later, she said, "I suspect it must have been somebody in Xie Yujun's family," court documents show.
 
Ultimately, the prosecution's case depended on the shoeprint. Forensic evidence is often unreliable in China, partly because the country has no uniform forensic rules. In Chaohu, prosecutors would boast of ample forensic evidence, including fingerprints, but only the shoeprint was introduced in the trial. Court documents say the print was taken from the sole of a Yi'erkang brand leather shoe.
 
Investigators in Chaohu never found a shoe that matched the print. But the police bought an identical Yi'erkang shoe and ordered Xie Shude to make a fresh print to compare with the one they had. A police academy in northeast China then concluded that print matched the crime scene print because both were "slightly turned inward" and "landing on the outside."
 
Mr. Xie knew nothing about forensics but tried to hire a private firm in Shanghai for an independent analysis. The firm told him it worked only with the government. Eventually, Mr. Xie had to ask the Chaohu court to find him an expert. They found a retired government forensics specialist. He confirmed the prosecution's report.
 
Mr. Xie placed his hopes with Jiang Shengchao, a lawyer with political connections and a good reputation. But Mr. Jiang quickly met problems. The police blocked him from meeting his client. Desperate, Mr. Xie traveled to the provincial capital, Hefei, to petition higher officials to intervene. Two months after the arrest, the lawyer finally saw his client.
 
The trial was held in October 2004 in Chaohu Intermediate Court. It lasted a single day. Mr. Jiang was not allowed to review the evidence, nor did Mr. Xie's son have a chance to face his accuser. No witnesses were called. Their testimony was entered into the record, but Mr. Jiang was given no chance to question them. Chinese law requires that evidence be subjected to cross-examination, but legal analysts say this requirement is regularly overlooked.
 
In arguing the case, Mr. Jiang also faced restrictions. "I remember how the judge intervened every time the lawyer was trying to say something important," said Ms. Huang, the defendant's wife. "He would just say, 'Hurry up and make it simple.' "
 
On Oct. 12, the court found Xie Shude guilty and awarded compensation of nearly $10,000 to the victims. Mr. Xie responded by hiring a new lawyer, Li Ping, for his appeal to the Anhui Province High Court.
 
In December, the High Court overruled the guilty verdict, citing "insufficient evidence" and "certain unclear facts."
 
"I thought that showed justice," the father said.
 
But the ruling did not mean the case was over. Appellate courts in China rarely release defendants, even if ruling in their favor. Instead, the case was returned to Chaohu Intermediate Court for a new trial. The High Court also sent a confidential letter to prosecutors, a customary practice, with instructions on how to bolster their case.
 
Even so, the defense had made an unexpected discovery: Ms. Li had been allowed to examine the evidence and noticed that the digital photograph of the shoeprint from the crime scene was dated in April, a month after the attack.
 
It raised obvious questions: Did the police simply manufacture the shoeprint? If not, was the print reliable, given the number of people who had trampled through the crime scene during the month after the attack?
 
Ms. Li raised these questions to no avail. The trial lasted only a few hours and resulted in another guilty verdict. Mr. Xie was disappointed, but he assumed that the High Court would again overturn the verdict since the prosecutors had not presented any new evidence.
 
He would be wrong.
 
Kafkaesque Appeals
 
The High Court is the most powerful judicial body in Anhui Province, yet it should not be confused with appellate courts operating in the United States. The High Court is a political body as much as an arbiter of law.
 
This distinction would become apparent in Xie Shude's two appeals. The first, successful appeal had been reviewed by a panel of three judges. A provincial official familiar with the workings of the High Court said the three judges reviewed the case strictly on its legal merits.
 
But the second appeal, in April 2005, was different. Five judges were listed on the ruling. A second provincial official confirmed that those five judges were actually part of a much larger trial committee within the court that oversaw the review.
 
The two provincial officials, who asked not to be identified for fear of reprisals, said the judges were sharply divided over the case. Some thought it was without merit. Even so, their authority was limited: Chinese law does not allow judges to throw out evidence or overturn convictions on the basis of police misconduct.
 
More significant, the two officials said the High Court was reluctant to overturn any conviction because that might damage its relationships with prosecutors and police, as well as with Communist Party leaders eager to be seen as cracking down on crime.
 
Finally, the two officials said, judges sometimes simply ignore evidence and consider what they perceive to be the greater societal good - in this case, a conviction to soothe public anxiety about a grisly crime.
 
"In China," said one of the provincial officials, "the rules sometimes do not matter." The official added, "If you go after legal justice, it might cause more harm to social stability."
 
The High Court handed down its second ruling in the case of Mr. Xie's son in May. This time, the court upheld the conviction and even seemed to switch the burden of proof. If before it blamed the prosecution for lacking evidence, it now blamed the defense for not introducing new evidence.
 
It was as if Xie Shude had been presumed guilty unless proven innocent.
 
A Last Hope
 
In June, Xie Yujun traveled to the High Court, clutching a ticket to meet with officials. His was not a formal legal appeal but rather a petition in the feudal tradition of ancient China.
 
He could no longer afford a lawyer. But he had fallen to his knees before a young law student and begged for help. The law student, joined by another student, met Mr. Xie at the High Court and later provided written accounts of the meeting.
 
The three rode an elevator to a private upstairs room and sat at a long table opposite two judges and their aides. Attendants poured glasses of hot water. Mr. Xie described the case until the older of the two judges chuckled. He said they knew the case because they had been involved in upholding the conviction.
 
The younger judge conceded the case had problems. He agreed the confession was coerced. But he defended the shoeprint and changed the subject when the law students peppered him with questions.
 
The older judge did not bother with intricacies of law. He advised Mr. Xie that he could eventually petition to reopen the case. But first he recommended that Mr. Xie regularly visit his son in prison. "Really get to know him," he said. "Make sure you are convinced he is innocent."
 
Mr. Xie boiled with anger as the judge offered his final advice.
 
"There's no hurry," the older judge added. "After all, it's a life sentence."
 

The Elephant in Your Living Room

Big-screen TV prices are down by 30% or more, but once you lug one home, the drama's just beginning. From surprise extra costs to new battles for the remote, home theaters are shaking up the house
By REED ALBERGOTTI and GARY MCWILLIAMS
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 12, 2005; Page P1

When Donna Lasher bought a 42-inch top-of-the-line high-definition TV for $5,500 last year, it seemed like a good price. Another $10,000 later, she's not so sure.

The giant screen took on a life of its own, says Ms. Lasher. On top of the new furniture she needed to hold the thing, she soon found herself shelling out for everything from a $2,000 sound system to $250 worth of cords to connect everything from the cable box to the DVD player. The 57-year-old manufacturing vice president in Kensington, Conn., says she loves her setup, but "it's like a snowball."

Between now and the end of the holidays, you're going to be hearing a lot about this being the year of the giant screen. And there's something to this. Prices are down 30-35% so far this year, an unprecedented drop. A 42-inch plasma HDTV screen, one of the more popular versions, can now be had for $2,000. The cost of bigger screens is dropping fast, too, especially for those willing to accept a less-well-known brand. At the Costco warehouse-store chain, a 50-inch Vizio brand plasma monitor is $2,699.

But as millions of Americans lug home these monsters, many are discovering there's more to the purchase than just the price tag in the store. For starters, there's all the extras you'll need for a fully loaded system. And just as family dynamics have changed with past technology invasions, the arrival of a TV that everyone wants a piece of is having its own impact. About 16 million households will have an HDTV set by year's end, up from 10 million last year, according to Forrester Research.

The extra costs can include a simple $200 bracket to hang the screen, plus as much as $675 to get someone to run those unsightly wires behind the wall. Some of the bigger models don't come with speakers at all or include fairly low-quality ones -- so people often spend an extra $500 to $1,000 for a home-theater audio system. And for the true high-definition picture, you'll pay as much as $15 a month to upgrade your cable service, and about $400 for a special high-definition digital recorder with TiVo so the show doesn't look stretched when you play it back.

Many recent converts say an even bigger side effect is the prime-time drama that unfolds at home. Family members who have been content to fan out to TV sets sprinkled throughout the house can wind up fighting over who gets to watch the giant screen, with Dad demanding the local news in high-definition while the kids refuse to watch their new "Star Wars: Episode III" DVD without surround sound. Others say that, to their surprise, it brings the family together. And then there are the squabbles over how the TV should be displayed -- hidden behind custom-built sliding doors or on display for visitors to ooh and aah over.

For Rob Horwood, it meant staying glued to his couch for hours every Sunday if he wanted to watch the Houston Texans play football in high-definition. That's because every time he got up to get a drink from the fridge or go to the bathroom, his two sons jumped in and started playing Links 2004 on their Xbox. "It's a fight," says the Wichita Falls, Texas, industrial engineer. Last month, he finally changed the rules. On Sundays, all videogame play is restricted to the tube TV. "They're like circling sharks," he says.

Fernando Manalo had a different solution. When he bought a new 50-inch rear-projection TV for his den a couple of years ago, his plan was to spend more time watching super-sharp DVDs on the couch. He even put the old tube TV in his son's bedroom so he could have it all to himself. Then the plan went awry. After months of scrambling for dibs on the high-definition screen, he gave in and bought another, 32-inch LCD for the kids and their videogames. "It's hard to take candy away from kids," says the 46-year-old IT manager in Paramus, N.J. (Flat-panel inch counts reflect the measurement of the screen's diagonal.)

It was only a few years ago that flat-screen TVs were rare. Then the audio components began to come down in price as makers started offering the "home theater in a box," with all five pieces (four speakers and a subwoofer) needed for surround sound in one package.

Some say the record drop in flat-panel TV prices is reminiscent of 1998, when a 50% drop in the price of DVD players helped them reach 3.5 million U.S. homes by the following year, according to Digital Entertainment Group, a trade association for the DVD industry. Now, the trend toward watching movies at home is only accelerating. This has Hollywood worried, with box-office receipts down 8% so far this year.

David Sonntag and his wife, Ally, used to go out a lot. But since he bought a 50-inch high-definition plasma TV and a brand-new surround-sound system earlier this year, he and Ally spend almost every weekend on the couch watching a DVD. "It's better than listening to the guy with the cellphone or the lady with the cold who's sneezing and coughing," says the 27-year-old public-relations manager in Raleigh, N.C., who recently watched "The Thomas Crown Affair" over a bottle of pinot grigio.

Others say it causes some strange changes in their viewing habits. For Barry Silver, it means watching bugs. When the 64-year-old physician brought home his TV, he was mostly planning to tune in for Philadelphia Eagles football games, with the high-definition picture able to show beads of sweat on players' foreheads. Then he says he started channel-surfing the relatively small lineup of high-definition broadcasts -- where he ran across a Discovery Channel series called "Insectia": "Praying mantises, spiders, you've never seen detail like this in your life."

Some analysts expect prices to drop at least this much again next Christmas -- bringing that $2,000 42-inch plasma screen in stores now down to $1,400. That's driven partly by the intense competition, but also by new factories with greater efficiencies. Panel makers can now work with glass substrates that are as large as a queen-sized bed. From one of those, they can make six or eight large panels, or 18 or more small panels.

Once you commit to going flat, your first consideration should be where the TV will go. For the living room, you're probably safe choosing a 40-inch screen or bigger, which is best viewed from a distance of 6 to 9 feet. Put one of those in your kitchen or bedroom, and it will look too big; for those rooms, consider a 36-inch or smaller set.

That goes a long way to answering the next question: What technology am I getting? Plasma, which uses electricity to light gas between two pieces of glass, has typically sold well in larger sizes because of its lower prices. LCD TVs generate pictures using light that is filtered by a material called liquid crystal, and are more widely sold in sizes under 40 inches. These sets are thinner and lighter than plasma, but are typically more expensive. Now, that's starting to change as LCD makers roll out bigger screens at more affordable prices. There's a third, cheaper type of big screen, called microdisplay, which is considered more durable but is too thick to hang on a wall.

If you're still having a hard time deciding between plasma and LCD, consider how much time you'll spend watching the TV in a bright room during the day versus in a darker room at night. Images on LCD screens are brighter than plasma, which makes them more visible in a sunlit room. The ability of plasma to show greater color contrast makes it better than LCD in a dark room.

For Rob Brownstein, 42 inches is more than enough. At $1,500, he says, his plasma screen was a bargain, especially considering it attracted two welcome guests: His teenage sons, who are so impressed with the new TV that they actually look forward to family movie night. Recently, they all sat down to watch "This is My Father," a James Caan drama about a man searching for his long-lost dad. Says the 58-year-old communications consultant, "They loved it."

Peter F Drucker, a Pioneer in Social and Management Theory, Is Dead at 95

Peter Ferdinand Drucker was born Nov. 19, 1909, one of two sons of Caroline and Adolph Drucker, a prominent lawyer and high-ranking civil servant in the Austro-Hungarian government. He left Vienna in 1927 to work for an export firm in Hamburg, Germany, and to study law.

Mr. Drucker then moved to Frankfurt, where he earned a doctorate in international and public law in 1931 from the University of Frankfurt, became a reporter and then senior editor in charge of financial and foreign news at the newspaper General-Anzeiger, and, while substitute teaching at the university, met Doris Schmitz, a 19-year-old student. They became reacquainted after waving madly while passing each other going opposite directions on a London subway escalator in 1933 and were married in 1937.

Mr. Drucker had moved to England to work as a securities analyst and writer after watching the rise of the Nazis with increasing alarm. In England, he took an economics course from John Maynard Keynes in Cambridge, but was put off by how much the talk centered on commodities rather than people.

Mr. Drucker's reputation as a political economist was firmly established with the publication in 1939 of "The End of Economic Man." The New York Times said it brought a "remarkable vision and freshness" to the understanding of fascism. The book's observations, along with those in articles he wrote for Harpers and The New Republic, caught the eye of policy makers in the federal government and at corporations as the country prepared for war, and landed him a job teaching at Sarah Lawrence College in Bronxville, N.Y.

Writing "The Future of Industrial Man," published in 1942 after Mr. Drucker moved to Bennington College in Vermont, convinced him that he needed to understand big organizations from the inside. Rebuffed in his requests to work with several major companies, he was delighted when General Motors called in late 1943 proposing that he study its structure and policies. To avoid having him treated like a management spy, G.M. agreed to let him publish his findings.

Neither G.M. nor Mr. Drucker expected the public to be interested because no one had ever written such a management profile, but "The Concept of the Corporation" became an overnight sensation when it was published in 1946. " 'Concept of the Corporation' is a book about business the way 'Moby Dick' is a book about whaling," said Mr. Beatty, referring to the focus on social issues extending far beyond G.M.'s immediate operating challenges.

In it, Mr. Drucker argued that profitability was crucial to a business's health but more importantly to full employment. Management could achieve sustainable profits only by treating employees like valuable resources. That, he argued, required decentralizing the power to make decisions, including giving hourly workers more control over factory life, and guaranteed wages.

In the 1950's, Mr. Drucker began proclaiming that democratic governments had become too big to function effectively. This, he said, was a threat to the freedom of their citizens and to their economic well-being.

Unlike many conservative thinkers, Mr. Drucker wanted to keep government regulation over areas like food and drugs and finance. Indeed, he argued that the rise of global businesses required stronger governments and stronger social institutions, including more powerful unions, to keep them from forgetting social interests.

According to Claremont Graduate University, Mr. Drucker's survivors include his wife, Doris, an inventor and physicist; his children, Audrey Drucker of Puyallup, Wash., Cecily Drucker of San Francisco, Joan Weinstein of Chicago, and Vincent Drucker of San Rafael, Calif.; and six grandchildren.

Early last year, in an interview with Forbes magazine, Mr. Drucker was asked if there was anything in his long career that he wished he had done but had not been able to do.

"Yes, quite a few things," he said. "There are many books I could have written that are better than the ones I actually wrote. My best book would have been "Managing Ignorance," and I'm very sorry I didn't write it."

http://nytimes.com/2005/11/12/business/12drucker.html?ei=5094&en=e8e1d4027d5ecb43&hp=&ex=1131771600&partner=homepage&pagewanted=all

Friday, November 11, 2005

UN, internet and past lessons unlearned

Fazal Majid wrote about this matter a few weeks back and it just reinforced my view of why the internet nameservers should remain under the control of the US alone.

"My primary objections to the ITU(International Telecommunications Union) are not about its political structure, governance or democratic legitimacy, but about its competence, or more precisely the lack of it. The ITU is basically the forum where government PTT monopolies meet incumbent telcos to devise big standards and blow big amounts of hot air. Well into the nineties, they were pushing for a bloated network architecture called OSI, as an alternative to the Internet's elegant TCP/IP protocol suite. I was not surprised — I used to work at France Télécom's R&D labs, and had plenty of opportunity to gauge the "caliber" of the incompetent parasites who would go on ITU junkets.

Truth be said, those people's chief competency is bureaucratic wrangling, and like rats leaving a ship, they have since decamped to the greener pastures of the IETF, whose immune system could not prevent a dramatic drop in the quality of its output. The ITU's institutional bias is towards complex solutions that enshrine the role of legacy telcos, managed scarcity and self-proclaimed intelligent networks that are architected to prevent disruptive change by users on the edge."

This is precisely what I fear will happen if the UN is allowed to interfere in the matters on the internet on a larger scale than it is allowed to do so now. Career bureaucrats who know shit about how the internet works; will take high paying jobs at the UN in this department, leech like parasites while caring a rats ass about the standards on which the internet will base its future on.

The
op-ed by Kofi Annan can go burn in hell. The UN is so helpless about Syria, Iraq, North Korea, Iran. Why should netizens from countries outside the US trust the future access of their internet to such an incompetent organization? In a earlier journal post, I explained what the Indian govt did in 2003:

If you are Indian, you might recall that in 2003, the Indian govt forced ALL Indian ISP’s to block Yahoo groups because a separatist group from Meghalaya was running a group on yahoo and disseminated its propaganda(albeit only to 36 members before this matter became a crisis). The ban was in place for 10-14 days. At the end of the the fiasco, membership of that group had increased to 185. A 5 fold increase. And it left many Indians (and Yahoo) with a bad taste in the mouth regarding cyber policies of the Indian govt.

Keep the internet free:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/10/10/opinion/edbildt.php


From http://www1.ietf.org/mail-archive/web/ietf/current/msg38049.html

When every change must be propagated to a billion machines, aconservative approach is best.>

Arbitrary registration of top level domains would not have prevented> local delegation. The problem with monolithic DNS is that it forces> hierarchy where none exists.But it does exist, just as it does for the telephone network.> If we were redesigning the DNS today the root would contain as much> information people cared to put in it.If we were redesigning it today, it would never actually be up andrunning. Instead, it would be continually revised in endless volumesof specifications written by people with nothing better to do in life,and nobody would implement more than a fraction of the spec, andthey'd always be several versions behind, and their implementationswould never be quite correct, and nothing would ever work togethervery smoothly at all.

The reason the Internet is successful is that it was designed before the bureaucrats took over.

The reason X.400 failed is that it wasdesigned after the bureaucrats took over.

How the Textile Industry Alone Won Quotas on Chinese Imports

An Obscure Beltway Agency
Can Dictate Terms of Trade;
Implications for Diplomacy
Mr. Leonard's Homecoming
By GREG HITT
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 10, 2005; Page A1

WASHINGTON -- In the past four years, U.S. industries from mattress-spring makers to wire-coat-hanger manufacturers have requested federal protection from surges in Chinese imports. Only one has received it: textiles.

To understand one reason why, peek inside the third floor of the Herbert Hoover building, a stone fortress around the corner from the White House and home to the Committee for the Implementation of Textile Agreements.

This obscure corner of the federal bureaucracy, known as CITA (pronounced SEE-ta), has in the past year imposed trade barriers on a range of Chinese goods from shirts to dressing gowns to man-made fiber underwear. The U.S. government is broadly worried about China, from the tight grip it maintains on its currency to the problem of piracy. But CITA is a notable example of the U.S. directly challenging its new rival. As such, it shows how a powerful industry lobby can have a big effect on foreign policy.

Few American industries enjoy such a dedicated bureaucratic focus in Washington -- and such a powerful one. CITA's founding charter gives it unilateral power to impose limits on textile imports. Its actions are final. Its deliberations are exempt from public disclosure on the grounds that they have foreign-policy implications. Until recently, CITA publicized its decisions only through filings in the Federal Register, the government's daily notice of administrative actions.

James C. Leonard III, CITA's chairman and a textile-company veteran, says the agency weighs all sides in making its decisions, but allows that it has a protectionist bent. CITA's core mission, as he describes it, is "trying to help maintain a domestic manufacturing industry."

The impact of CITA's decisions on U.S. consumers is considerable. Chinese manufacturers produce apparel at lower cost than their U.S. competitors because of their economies of scale and low-priced labor. Import limits therefore tend to lead to higher domestic prices as apparel companies scramble to hook up with new -- and often more expensive -- suppliers elsewhere in Asia and Central America.

CITA's power has grown in recent months. Mr. Leonard helped lead a team of U.S. government officials negotiating a textile trade pact with China. The talks were sparked by the agency's own imposition of sanctions. At a ceremony in London this week, the U.S. and China inked a pact that imposes controls on Chinese access to American markets through 2008. CITA will enforce the rules set under the agreement. Its main weapon is its ability to restrict imports.

Richard Nixon created CITA in the midst of his 1972 re-election campaign at a time when the U.S. textile industry was under pressure from Japan and Taiwan. The president was wooing Southern textile barons to make Republican inroads in the region, much as the current Republican administration is concerned about protecting those gains as it pursues its own trade policy. CITA is now buried within the Commerce Department's sprawling D.C. bureaucracy, where 20,000 workers consider patent requests, plot strategies to restore salmon stocks and catalogue statistics about life in America.

The five-member panel is charged with overseeing a regime of regulations governing global textile trade. It has wide discretion over how quotas should be enforced and whether new ones should be slapped on. Its members are drawn from the Labor, Treasury and State departments, as well as the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, an arm of the White House.

The Treasury and State departments have opposed import curbs over the years, according to people familiar with the debates. The Treasury Department, which has long had a free-trade bent, even boycotted meetings in the 1990s in protest of the group's protectionist leanings, says a former CITA member.

But Commerce is the lead agency. With its mission to promote domestic industry, it has set a tone sympathetic to producers. By tradition, the Commerce Department's CITA seat has been filled by a political appointee with ties to the textile industry. That seat also brings with it the committee's chairmanship.

Dan Ikenson, a trade-policy specialist at the Cato Institute, a free-market think tank that opposes the use of import restrictions, likens CITA's proceedings to a "kangaroo court." Referring to its decisions, he says "to expect objectivity...is expecting something miraculous."

Mr. Leonard, 66 years old, is officially the deputy assistant secretary for textiles and apparel. He has a staff of more than 30 analysts who report to him and an office looking out on the Washington Monument.

His previous job was as an economist and trade advocate for North Carolina textile giant Burlington Industries Inc. In that post, he used the company's jet to fly Commerce staffers, including those from the office he now oversees, to tour company plants in the Carolinas. He also knows personally the pain of import competition. As Burlington slid into bankruptcy protection in 2001, Mr. Leonard was among the thousands of employees to lose their jobs.

He continues to wear American-stitched suits, though the last one he bought "was made of imported fabric," he says with a shrug.

Shortly after President Bush took office in 2001, a Commerce official recruited Mr. Leonard for the CITA chairmanship. Mr. Leonard jumped at the chance. His great uncle, Luther Hodges -- himself a long-time textile executive -- had been President Kennedy's commerce secretary. His portrait hangs in the halls of the Hoover building.

'A Balancing Act'

But Mr. Leonard's three decades in an industry wedded to protectionism met with ambivalence within the administration. A White House personnel officer grilled him about whether he'd be able to work for a president with a free-trade platform, Mr. Leonard recalls. "It's going to be a balancing act," Mr. Leonard says he responded. "I have to look at things from both sides now."

He took office at a time of mounting worries about China. The Nixon-era quotas that had regulated global textile sales were being slowly phased out and would expire entirely at the end of 2004. China had just won entry to the World Trade Organization, which allowed it for the first time to take advantage of international free-trade rules.

In addition to these economic issues, the U.S. government, in particular the Pentagon, was starting to view China and its growing military sophistication with increasing suspicion. Sino-U.S. relations were rapidly moving to the top of the diplomatic agenda.

To avoid a sudden, disruptive flood of Chinese products into the American market, the U.S. negotiated with Beijing special provisions allowing for the possibility of "safeguard" trade barriers in the event of an import "surge." The safeguards would be permitted through 2008 for textiles, 2013 for other goods.

For most products, complaints were routed through the International Trade Commission, a government body that investigates and makes recommendations to the White House, which makes the final decision. For textiles, the decision was left to Mr. Leonard and CITA.

True to his promise to skeptics in the Bush administration, Mr. Leonard was not an automatic rubber-stamp for industry demands. Through 2002, he rebuffed textile makers' calls to use the newly negotiated agreement to place limits on imports whose quotas had expired. He insisted first on codifying CITA's historically opaque procedures.

Mr. Leonard set guidelines and timetables as part of the process of imposing restraints. Companies would need hard import and production data to back up their contentions. Mr. Leonard says it was important to add transparency to a process that could have big implications for U.S. foreign policy. "We'd never done anything like this before," he says, referring to his revamp of CITA.

The delay in considering new limits infuriated Mr. Leonard's old textile colleagues. "We got very annoyed," says National Textile Association President Karl Spilhaus, who knows Mr. Leonard well. "We were pounding on him." Industry lobbyists met repeatedly in private with Mr. Leonard in the first half of 2003. They wanted to pressure him to take action and also explain the new rules for filing protection requests.

By the end of 2003, having set up the new CITA system, Mr. Leonard was ready to respond. He proposed that CITA impose new limits on certain Chinese imports.

In early discussions, the State and Treasury departments opposed the move. Labor and Commerce were supportive, while USTR was undecided, according to current and former administration and industry officials.

Public-Relations Campaign

Mr. Leonard's hand was strengthened by a public-relations campaign launched by an old friend, Augustine Tantillo, executive director of the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition, a lobbying group formed by more than a dozen industry executives. Mr. Tantillo is also a former CITA chairman.

Mr. Tantillo and other lobbyists issued a widely distributed report asserting that China was poised to gain control of up to 75% of the U.S. apparel market. "What we did in the industry was say, 'let's build pressure to such a massive extent' " that CITA is forced to impose new limits, Mr. Tantillo says.

That helped steer the holdouts on CITA toward Mr. Leonard's proposal. An administration official says the government worried about getting "killed" politically by the textile industry's congressional allies if CITA rejected the petitions. In December 2003, Mr. Leonard won unanimous approval for 12-month import limits on Chinese-made bras, dressing gowns and knit fabric. CITA cited a big jump in shipments including a 1,484% increase in dressing gowns between 2000 and 2003.

Top Chinese officials objected strongly and called in the U.S. ambassador in Beijing for emergency meetings to protest the actions.

For the textile industry, that was just the beginning. Facing the Dec. 31, 2004, expiration of the last of the world-wide quotas, textile-makers began pushing for pre-emptive action. Instead of asking for protection from actual increases in imports, they wanted CITA to impose limits before such a rise, based merely on the anticipation of one. A lawsuit from importers and retailers blocked that line of attack.

After that rebuff, the industry turned to CITA, contending it was already being hurt by cheap imports. Under Mr. Leonard's new rules, it would take more than six months for any new restrictions to kick in. That was too long for Mr. Tantillo. "Rome is burning," he says he warned Mr. Leonard.

Mr. Tantillo began urging Mr. Leonard to install an early-warning system highlighting increases in imports. But there were hurdles. Computers at the Customs Bureau had to be specially programmed to spit out the requested numbers. The Census Bureau, which massages data for public consumption, didn't want to release data it hadn't properly studied. Yet Mr. Tantillo knew from his own Commerce Department days that the data could be retrieved. "This is what they do for a living, they collect numbers and put them in a chart," he says.

Mr. Leonard and his staff started crafting a new set of numbers from the raw shipping data collected by Customs. They developed a computer program to cross-check the figures, looking for anomalies that might point to reporting errors, for example.

By March, the Commerce Department announced the creation of the new reporting system that accelerated the release of import data by weeks. The special data set showed that Chinese imports in the first quarter of 2005, compared with the year-earlier period, had risen more than 1,000% for cotton knit shirts, blouses and cotton trousers; and more than 300% for man-made fiber underwear.

On May 13, almost three months ahead of its regular schedule, CITA announced a plan to impose limits.

The Chinese bristled at CITA's actions, as did U.S. retailers and importers who were counting on buying products from China. Mr. Leonard, however, is unapologetic, citing the growth in imports. "We felt completely justified," he says.

Thursday, November 10, 2005

Tamils keep an aloof distance in Grigny, France

By Rashmee Roshan Lall/TNN

Grigny: The grass verges are still charred from Sunday’s fearful rioting on the grim streets of Grigny, 30 km south of Paris. Police helicopters still whirr in the skies above and the CRS, France's elite riot police, are out in force.
For Grigny, the unlovely suburb some call the Eelam of France because it is home to the largest concentration of Indians from the former French colony of Pondicherry, is still on edge. This was where nine godawful nights of urban unrest erupted on Sunday in an explosion of anger unparalleled anywhere else so far, with gunshots fired at two policemen.
But on Tuesday, with whispers that an unofficial curfew would be enforced from midnight, it was clear the town’s changing mood had nothing to do with the several thousand Tamils packed into the ugly high-rise ghettos around. Though they live cheek by jowl with the poor disaffected beur or North African-Arab immigrant, the Tamils might almost live on a different planet.
Nods Gunasekharan, who left Pondicherry for France 12 years ago and now runs a small grocery shop in downtown Grigny, We Tamils are not involved in this fight. It is the beur and they are angry with the government. If anything, say Grigny’s Tamils, the beur have explicitly assured they will be unharmed. Says Gunasekharan, When I started closing my shop early after the trouble began, the Algerians came and said, Why are you doing that? Nothing will happen to you.
It is not an unlikely brotherhood of beur and brown that keeps Grigny’s Tamil safe and unharmed. It is just that Grigny’s Tamils a huge, if unremarkable community are uninvolved in local affairs. Explains Gunasekharan, We Tamils are no match for the Algerians, physically.
But surely that can hardly explain why the Tamils manifestly lead separate lives from the rest of France?
There is absolutely no political involvement by the estimated 100,000 Pondicherry Indians in the life of France, laments Rajaram, an urbane professional manager who left Chennai for Paris 20 years ago and now runs his own company to outsource work from France to India.
Though many of the Tamils arrived in France nearly half-a-century ago, they might almost still be in India, he says, displaying little interest in life here and still preferring to read magazines from home such as Kumudam and Rani, watch Sun TV or Jaya TV.

Bangalore brief for Nov 10

2 BMP officials in Lok Ayukta net


How Can These Engineers Improve Roads: Venkatachala

TIMES NEWS NETWORK

Bangalore: Two senior officers of the Bangalore Mahanagara Palike (BMP) have landed in the Lok Ayukta dragnet for amassing property worth several crores, disproportionate to their known sources of income.
   Late on Tuesday evening, the Lok Ayukta sleuths raided the residences of R Ranganath, chief engineer, south, in Rajajinagar; and M C Prakash, executive e    ngineer in charge of Bharathinagar. The raids followed tip-offs by BMP staffers.
   While the sleuths recovered Rs 10.2 lakh in cash that was stashed away in Ranganath’s palatial four-storeyed building, over 3 kg of gold and silver jewellery and articles, electronic gadgets and Rs 5 lakh worth of NSCs were seized too.
   The sleuths have so far found that Ranganath owns a twostoreyed building on West of Chord Road; 3 acres in Kadur; over 4 acres in KG Srinivaspura, Tumkur; 5 acres in Birur; 39 guntas of land at Gubbi; and a residential site in Banashankari. Three cars and a scooter have been seized too.
   Prakash, who joined BMP as a work inspector, was found in possession of over Rs 1 lakh in cash and nearly 7 kg of gold and silver. Besides his residence that was raided in Venkateshwara Badavane in BTM Layout, Prakash owns a three-storeyed building in Madivala, expansive sites in Srirangapatna, BTM Layout, Arohalli, Uttarahalli and several acres of land in Mandya, and Channapatna.
   Cases under the anti-corruption Act have been registered. Lok Ayukta Venkatachala said he will recommend their suspension. Speaking to reporters, the Lok Ayukta lashed out at the corrupt officials: “With this level of corruption, how can they improve the condition of roads in the city.’’ Reacting sharply to the government’s indifference, he said: “I will file cases to make the government grant sanction to prosecute corrupt officers.’’
   “A government job is like a licence for them to take bribes. They begin to loot once they start with the job.’’
   On the cabinet’s decision to drop charges against some officers booked by the Lok Ayukta, he said they will go in appeal to the governor. “All officers are connected and have links with some MLA or minister. But we will continue our work against corruption.’’
   
Safe custody

The cash, gold and silver valuables and documents seized will be kept in the Lok Ayukta’s strong room in his office. The authorities will approach a court for a decision on the seizure. The booty will either be deposited with the government treasury or handed over to the custody of the Lok Ayukta, an official said.

 
Big projects, big loot

R Ranganath:

Was in charge of the Rs 300-crore road works under the municipal bonds scheme. Worked as executive engineer in the projects department, where he monitored the construction of the Sirsi Circle and Richmond Circle flyovers and multi-storeyed buildings.

Prakash:

Has worked at the ward level. Was assistant engineer at Jayanagar, and AEE at Shivajinagar and Binnypet. Handled road asphalting, drain and pavement works.
 
Battered roads greet Central team
TIMES NEWS NETWORK

Bangalore: Breached tanks, damaged houses, collapsed retaining walls, scar-surfaced roads. This is what the sevenmember team from New Delhi was treated to on a tour of the city on Wednesday.
   Prior to embarking on the tour, principal secretary, revenue, S M Jaamdar, made a comprehensive presentation on the rain related havoc the state had to grapple with. The team’s attention was brought to the memorandums submitted to the Centre in September for Rs 90 crore (for Bidar), the overall damage assessment in the state for Rs 1000 crore, and the damage in Bangalore city alone due to the recent rain, for Rs 300 crore.
   A small presentation was made exclusively on the problems the BMP had to grapple with. Later, the team of seven was split into three groups and inspected different places.
   One team, lead by R Bhattacharya, joint secretary, ministry of home affairs, was taken on an inspection of parts of Bangalore urban and rural. Another team went on an inspection of the situation in Tumkur and Hassan. Yet another team went to Bidar and is presently halting at
Raichur.
   The Bangalore team had a hectic sojourn of CMC areas
and some of the worst affected areas in city limits. Some of
the places and subsequent problems that were looked into:

• The breached tank at Nayandahalli which caused problems on Mysore Road leading to road blockage and eviction of some families in the vicinity during the recent deluge.


• Inspection of the damaged bridge and retaining wall at Vrishabavathi valley.


• The collapsed Kambipura bridge.


• The breached Kodigehalli tank.


• The badly damaged Nagavara-Thanisandra Road.


• The scarred Tannery Road.


• Houses that were damaged in large numbers at Ramamurthynagar.


• Damaged houses at K R Puram CMC.


• Water-logged and hence damaged roads at Kaggadasapura.


• The collapsed retaining wall and damaged storm water drain at Ulsoor Lake.


• The EWS quarters which have been getting damaged for three consecutive years.


• Sarjapur Road which was inaccessible for a long time after the rains.

   An ultimatum on how much funds would actually be released and an assessment of extent of damage done, would
be pronounced on Thursday evening by the team. On Thursday, the teams would be visiting Mandya, Mysore, parts of
Bangalore Rural and Kolar.
 
VVIPs choke rush-hour traffic
TIMES NEWS NETWORK

Bangalore: Traffic was thrown out of gear along the Sankey Road stretch up to Airport Road during the morning peak hour on Wednesday thanks to three different VVIP convoys including the one which took chief minister N Dharam Singh. First, security agencies and the traffic police were holding rehearsal from Airport Road to central business dis trict (CBD) to make preparations for the visit of Czech Re public President scheduled for Thursday and Friday.
   Then, the CM’s convoy hit the road to reach Airport. Fol lowed by deputy chief minister M P Prakash’s convoy criss
crossing CBD.
   At around 10 am, the commuters were caught in unawares as they were stranded in the junctions while the convoys buzzed past them. Traffic policemen had stopped vehicular movement near junctions on the VVIP route a few minutes prior to the arrival and departure of convoys.
   As a result, office goers, students and others were caught in a jam for over an hour. “The situation on Airport Road was so bad that traffic moved at snail’s pace between Trinity Cir cle and the Airport. Some people missed flights too,’’ a traf fic constable near Domlur water tank said.
   After the coalition government came to power, number VVIP’s having convoy vehicles have increased to around from two to three earlier.

Mountains of Corn and a Sea of Farm Subsidies

RALSTON, Iowa, Nov. 4 - As Iowa finishes harvesting its second-largest corn crop in history, Roger Fray is racing to cope with the most visible challenge arising from the United States' ballooning farm subsidy program: the mega-corn pile.

Soaring more than 60 feet high and spreading a football field wide, the mound of corn behind the headquarters of West Central Cooperative here resembles a little yellow ski hill. "There is no engineering class that teaches you how to cover a pile like this," Mr. Fray, the company's executive vice president for grain marketing, said from the adjacent road. "This is country creativity."

Trucks wait to unload corn at elevators in Templeton, Iowa. The current system encourages the production of more than the country can use.

At 2.7 million bushels, the giant pile illustrates the explosive growth in corn production by American farmers in recent years, which this year is estimated to reach a nationwide total of at least 10.9 billion bushels, second only to last year's 11.8 billion bushels.

But this season's bumper crop is too much of a good thing, underscoring what critics call a paradox at the heart of the government farm subsidy program: America's efficient farmers may be encouraged to produce far more than the country can use, depressing prices and raising subsidy payments. In other words, because the government wants to help America's farmers, it essentially ends up paying them both when they produce too much and when their crop prices are too low.

http://nytimes.com/2005/11/09/business/09harvest.html?ei=5094&en=785164d67f2944cc&hp=&ex=1131598800&partner=homepage&pagewanted=all

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

In Rome´s Main Mosque, One Imam Is Calling for Jihad

Incendiary sermons are being preached to the Muslims in the pope´s diocese. And this is no isolated case - the mosques are in the hands of Islamic radicals

by Sandro Magister


ROMA - They´re downplaying it in the Vatican: "In the end, these are only the things being said in one Italian mosque. And giving too much importance to a local occurrence would risk compromising dialogue," said Archbishop Michael L. Fitzgerald, the president of the pontifical commission concerned with Islamic relations.

But the mosque in question is that of Rome, the pope´s diocese - and it´s the largest mosque in Europe. Inaugurated in 1995, it is sponsored by the Italian Islamic Cultural Center and Arab governments, in particular that of Saudi Arabia. The imam who preaches the "khutba" there every Friday was sent by the theologians of the Al Azhar university in Cairo, the most authoritative university in the Muslim world. And the things said in the Rome mosque are no small matter. The sermon of June 6, 2003, culminated with the following invocations, interspersed with the "Amen"s of the congregation:

"O Allah, grant victory to the Islamic fighters in Palestine, Chechnya, and elsewhere in the world! O Allah, destroy the homes of the enemies of Islam! O Allah, help us to annihilate the enemies of Islam! O Allah, make firm everywhere the voice of the nation of Islam!"

The audience for this sermon, which was delivered in Arabic, included Magdi Allam, a correspondent for the newspaper "La Repubblica," an Egyptian by birth and the author of important books on the Muslim world. The next day, June 7, selections from the khutba appeared on the front page of "La Repubblica," together with a statement by the imam, who was interviewed by Allam, on the terrorists who blow themselves up in order to kill Jews:

"From the Islamic point of view, there is no doubt that the operations by the mujahidin against the Jews in Palestine are legitimate. They are acts of martyrdom, and their authors are martyrs for Islam, because all of Palestine is a ´Dar al-Harb,´ a war zone; because all of Jewish society is illegally occupying a Muslim land."

The imam of the Rome mosque is Abdel-Samie Mahmoud Ibrahim Moussa, 32, an Egyptian. He doesn´t understand Italian, and speaks Arabic with a Nile delta accent. Magdi Allam wrote, in a second article for "La Repubblica" on June 8:

"He is the true product of a culture and an ideology that now dominate the Muslim university of Al Azhar, a sort of Vatican of Sunni Islam. But his is by no means an isolated case. Other Muslim spokesmen in Italy, linked with the Muslim Brotherhood and with radical currents of thought, have communicated their understanding and solidarity to the imam of Rome. The real problem is that most mosques are occupied by fundamentalist international networks. [...] The previous imam of the Rome mosque, sheikh Mahmoud Hammad Sheweita, feared for his bodily safety when he condemned the suicide attacks, thereby aligning himself against believers with radical tendencies. [...] The fact that the media are now able to reveal what is happening inside the mosques is due primarily to a renewal within the Islamic community of Italy. Many are uncomfortable and fed up with radical preaching and fundamentalist domination."

Apart from jihad, imam Moussa dedicated the sermon reported on by "La Repubblica" to family morality. He said, among other things:

"The religious man is jealous of his wife. Saad bin Ubaida said: ´If I saw my wife with another man, I would strike him with the sharp edge of my sword.´ And on this the Prophet said to his companions: ´Are you amazed at Saad´s sense of honor? In the name of God, I have a stronger sense of honor than he - and God´s sense of honor is yet greater than mine."

The Vatican engages in dialogue with various Muslim representatives, and signs joint messages of peace. But in the meantime, what is going on in the mosques? If the ideas that animate these Friday sermons are like the ones heard in Rome´s mosque, is it right to ignore them?

In Mecca, the cradle of Islam, a website has for several years been selecting "the best" of the sermons given in the mosques and sending them to imams all over the world as a guide for preaching. Given what the young Egyptian imam says from the pulpit of the main mosque in Rome, he could be one of the recipients of this service.

The ideas are identical: from the defense of crimes of honor to the incitement of jihad against Jews, Christians, and the West. See for yourself:

 

India's Energy Woes Go Deep

Despite Huge Coal Reserves,
Supply-Demand Gap Widens
By JOHN LARKIN
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

MUMBAI -- India, an energy-hungry country endowed with vast quantities of coal lying deep underground, has a problem: a chronic and worsening shortage of this staple fuel.

Coal India Ltd., the fiercely protected state monopoly, is unable to keep up with rising demand. The failure to bridge that gap is hobbling the country's attempts to boost power output and is emerging as one of the biggest deterrents to business investment and profitability in India. It also poses hard questions about the sustainability of current growth rates.

The coal crunch shows how vestiges of India's protectionist past hamper efforts to meet the demands of the country's booming economy. India's energy needs increasingly are met through tight world energy markets. The less coal India mines, the more it must pony up for costly imports.

India relies on coal for 80% of its electricity needs, and demand for electricity is booming with the economy. From April 2004 to the end of January, the country fell short of delivering enough power to meet peak demand by 12%.

"If we are to continue to grow at 7%, then physical infrastructure in terms of availability and quality would be very critical," Reserve Bank of India governor Y. V. Reddy said in a recent interview. "Coal production, and consequently power generation, are some of the areas needing attention now."

India depends on foreign crude oil for 70% of its fuel needs, a figure expected to rise drastically -- at stiffer costs -- as crude prices nudge beyond $60 a barrel.

India produces about 400 million metric tons of coal a year, which industry analysts say is far short of fast-rising demand. Coal imports have risen over the past decade, and industry analysts expect them to increase sharply over the next 10 years. But even after imports, the gap between supply and demand stands at 30 million to 40 million tons, says Sharad Kumar Chand, a researcher at The Energy Research Institute in New Delhi.

If production isn't lifted substantially, by 2015 the gap could explode to as much as 425 million tons -- or 45% of projected demand -- as India grows increasingly desperate for coal-fueled electricity, says a recent report on India's minerals sector by consultant McKinsey & Co. and the Confederation of Indian Industry.

This situation is ironic given India's huge coal reserves, the world's fourth-largest. The Indian government puts proven coal reserves at 92 billion tons, 200 years' worth at current production levels -- if only someone would dig it up.

With huge coal imports looming, the spot-market price of low-sulfur, high-energy coal has doubled over the past 18 months to around $60 a ton. "Coal is one of the highest-priority remaining reform areas for the government," says Vipul Tuli, an energy analyst at McKinsey's office in New Delhi.

The McKinsey/CII report predicts an extra $6 billion in foreign exchange will have to be spent on foreign coal each year by 2015 if India isn't able to satisfy demand domestically. Coal imports increased an estimated 17% in the fiscal year ended March 31.

Shashi Kumar, the chairman of Coal India, said India's coal shortfall is less than believed and can be covered by bringing online new mines and making existing ones more efficient. "After two or two-and-a-half years we'll be able to meet the shortages," he said.

Sector analysts say Coal India has indeed lifted production in response to shortages. Some of its subsidiaries are considered efficient, though Mr. Kumar concedes that overall output and utilization of equipment could be better. "In these areas, I have to improve," he said.

In the meantime, ramping up imports further will bring its own challenges. Creaky port infrastructure needs upgrades, and V. Raghuraman, an energy analyst at the Confederation of Indian Industry, says that "often there's no [transport] infrastructure to carry the coal from the ports to the power plants."

The biggest problem, though, is that mining remains largely the exclusive domain of the inefficient state monopoly, established after coal mines were nationalized in the early 1970s. The McKinsey/CII report identified bloated staffing and a lack of funds for growth at Coal India, and recommended it be exposed to more private-sector competition.

But successive governments have been more interested in placating aggressive coal unions. Private miners may set up coal mines to feed specific projects, such as steel plants, but otherwise don't have a free hand to mine coal or sell it.

The government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has identified boosting coal production as a national priority. But legislation to open the sector to competition has been stuck in Parliament for the past five years. Although Mr. Kumar of Coal India says he supports the bill, coal unions, anxious about job losses, threaten nationwide strikes if it's revived.

"We want the bill withdrawn," says M. K. Pandhe, president of the 150,000-member All India Coal Workers Federation. "Our nation's resources should be controlled by public-sector companies." He believes Coal India can close the production gap with a classic prescription: financial assistance from New Delhi.

Tuesday, November 08, 2005

Curfews after 11 days of rioting?

The news of the french riots started filtering into mainstream news after the 6th night of mayhem. The immediate thought was: 6 nights?! Why have there been no curfews imposed in the trouble-torn areas? After the 7th day, why hasn't the military been brought in to stop this rascals?
 
Only after 11 days of rioting has France allowed authorities to impose curfews. That's one heck of a speedy response, dude! What kind of an idiot govt is running France? Seems they want to keep their tag of "surrender" intact. If such a thing happened in the US, the Swat and National Guard would be out in 2 days. In India too, it would take 1 day to impose curfews and bring out the army to restore control. But in France, its "highly unusual" for a curfew to be imposed. Shame on France for allowing the riots to continue for so many days. They can send their army to the congo basin and ivory coast but they are too pussy-footed to deploy them within their own country?
Its just playing into the hands of extremist islamists.
 
 
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France's inability to quell the mayhem shaking its cities was thrown into sharp relief, as the government took the dramatic step of letting local authorities impose curfews amid mounting doubts about the effectiveness of the nation's centralized policing system.

In an interview on French television, Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin said France was invoking a 1955 law permitting local law-enforcement chiefs known as "prefects" to place communities under curfew "wherever necessary." He also said he was calling up 1,500 police reservists, to bring the total force mobilized on the riots to 9,500 officers.

Asked whether France was considering calling out the army, he said: "We're not at that point yet." But he added: "At each stage, we will take the measures necessary to restore order throughout the entire country."

Just before he spoke, the middle-class town of Le Raincy, which abuts some of the troubled suburbs northwest of Paris, was the first to announce a curfew, a move other municipalities indicated they might follow.

The highly unusual measures mark a turning point in the crisis, with the French state moving one step short of martial law. The 1955 law invoked last night was passed to impose a state of emergency during Algeria's war of independence from France, and hasn't been used in mainland France since that conflict. Mr. de Villepin said the curfews and call-up of reservists "mark the gravity of things."

Bands of young men, mostly from Muslim neighborhoods in poor urban areas, have been rioting nightly for almost two weeks. France Monday reported its first fatality from the riots since two teens hiding from police were accidentally electrocuted Oct. 27 in a power substation. Scores of policemen were wounded in clashes Sunday night. The rioting had spread to 300 French towns as of early Monday.

So far, rioters have burned 4,700 vehicles, and 77 policemen have been injured. Two officers have been hospitalized, but their condition isn't life-threatening, said a spokesman for the national police. A total of 1,220 people have been arrested.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113134793606189867.html

Monday, November 07, 2005

Islamists End Up Encouraging Isolation From Secular Society

Culture Clash
Muslim Groups
May Gain Strength
From French Riots

Islamists Try to Mediate Peace
But Encourage Isolation
From Secular Society
A Minister 'Plays Rambo'As France enters its 12th night of rioting, Islamic organizations like the Tabligh, which originated in the 1920s in India, stand to benefit from the unrest and emerge strengthened from it. The Tabligh advocates a strict adherence to Islam but also a disengagement from society.

While gangs of disaffected youths, mostly from Muslim families, continue to rampage, burning thousands of cars and ransacking entire neighborhoods, some of these organizations are positioning themselves as mediators who can bring back the order the government has been unable to restore.

These groups don't preach violence, but they do advocate something that is troubling Europe's secular democracies: that Muslims should identify themselves with their religion rather than as citizens. Effectively, they are promoting a separate society within society and that brand of Islamist philosophy is seeping into many parts of Western Europe. Countries from France and Germany to the United Kingdom and the Netherlands haven't succeeded in integrating their Muslim minorities -- and Islamic organizations have carefully positioned themselves to fill the breach.

The riots "are a blessing for them because it gives them the role of intermediary," says Gilles Kepel, a scholar who has studied and written extensively about the rise of Islam in France. That, in turn, puts them in a stronger position "to force concessions from the state," such as demanding a repeal of the law France passed last year banning headscarves from public schools, he says.

The past year is proving to be a watershed in modern Europe's encounter with Islam. As a number of events have shown -- including last year's assassination of Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh by a Muslim radical and the bombing of the London Tube by home-grown terrorists this summer -- Europe has failed to cope with the Muslims within its borders.

In France, legions of North African immigrants were taken in amid the post-World War II economic boom to fill low-skilled jobs. But the country did little to integrate these newcomers, neglecting to ensure they received language training, for instance. Authorities assumed they eventually would leave. They didn't. By the 1990s, many factory jobs were moving to cheaper countries, and joblessness soared in immigrant communities.

As France has failed to integrate these immigrants, Islam has filled the void. In many Paris suburbs, women now wear headscarves. Those who don't are often harassed. At school, Muslim boys increasingly refuse to mix with girls during sports activities or on field trips. Hospitals are under pressure not to have male and female patients in the same wards. Such disagreements are walling off Muslims from France's staunchly secular society and creating a ripe environment for radical Islamic groups.

The violence in France is a stark reminder that reaching an accommodation with Islam is one of the Continent's most pressing problems. Low birth rates and Europe's geographic position just north of the Muslim world means that increasing numbers of its citizens will be Muslim in the future. Muslims account for an estimated 5% or more of the populations of France, the Netherlands and the U.K., and are heavily concentrated in and around big cities.

Home to large contingents of first- and second-generation North African immigrants, the "banlieues," as France's troubled suburbs are called, are rife with delinquency, drug-dealing and crime amid grinding poverty and double-digit unemployment. In Clichy-sous-Bois, nearly 50% of the population are immigrants. France's 9.8% jobless rate is even worse in places like Clichy; by one estimate, unemployment is 40% among foreign-born residents of France aged 15 to 29.

Islamic organizations like the Tabligh and others have thrived on the accompanying despair. On Saturday afternoon, Magid and fellow members of the Tabligh wearing robes, skullcaps and long beards were milling about on the edges of Clichy-sous-Bois's projects -- decrepit towers that are sometimes referred to as "chicken coops."

The Tabligh has been active in Clichy-sous-Bois for about 15 years. Its power center is the local mosque, a huge brick hangar-like building that welcomes hundreds of worshipers each day. Nothing on the outside suggests a place of worship, but a metal door opens onto a vast carpeted room where people kneel and pray.

Magid, who earns his living as a judo instructor, says he has stepped up his proselytizing since the rioting began.

Islam and mainstream France are often at odds because French society is built on a strict separation of state and religion, he argued, which doesn't fly in the banlieues. "In France, secularism means you have to fit in or you're not French. They are always telling us: 'You Muslims are strangers,' " he said. This feeling of rejection has angered young men, Mr. Iquioussen said, stirring a desire to shut out French society.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113133597175189820.html

Once Footloose, Bangalore Clubs Are Now Dance-Free

A timely article. Highlights what was stated yesterday. http://logtk.blogspot.com/2005/11/dance-beyond-11-pm-think-twice-because.html
How Indian cities are now resembling saudi arabia. http://logtk.blogspot.com/2005/10/how-indian-cities-are-now-resembling.html
To Rein In Western Influence,
Indian City Tightens Rules;
DJs Lower the Volume
By ERIC BELLMAN
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 7, 2005; Page A1

BANGALORE, India -- On a Saturday night, club owner Amardipta "Deep" Biswas was locked in battle with six policemen in the rain. The cops were blocking people from entering his club after unconfirmed reports that people inside were breaking the law, by dancing.

"We've turned down the music and stopped the dancing!" he pleaded to an indifferent deputy commissioner of police lounging in a chauffeured cruiser. "We'll even put on traditional Indian music. Just please let us stay open." Unimpressed, the lawman rolled up a tinted window and waved his driver on.

The city fathers of this conservative part of India's Hindu heartland recently dusted off old morality codes that effectively outlaw dancing. The move was a reaction to the rising temperature of the club scene in India's version of Silicon Valley -- a reflection of the discomfort traditional Indians feel as their young sons and daughters drift toward Western ways and mores.

Since it opened 10 months ago, Mr. Biswas's Thailand-themed restaurant and bar "Taika" has been one of Bangalore's hottest clubs. On Saturdays before the new law, the dance floor was packed with more than 500 of Bangalore's brightest engineers, consultants and call-center employees, bouncing to hip-hop and house music from the West.

Today, Taika's dance floor -- which boasts an $80,000 sound system and the biggest sub woofer in India -- is filled with sofas, chairs and tables, all intended to obstruct would-be dancers.

Places that were regularly open until 3 a.m. now must shut before 11:30 p.m. Signs at the entrance of clubs say no dancing is allowed. DJs have been told to lower the volume to a third of the normal levels and avoid playing music that might "incite dancing." Bouncers have even been forcing dancers to stop and sit down.

The call-center kids -- an increasingly important consumer group in the city of eight million -- aren't having it. "Youngsters are working now so they have money and want to party," says 27-year-old Sarah Sangma, who is sitting at a sofa on the Taika dance floor. She spends most nights helping the U.S. customers of America Online. "When you are working such strange shifts you need a place to relax."

Outsourcing has brought much more than jobs to the subcontinent. It has created a new young consumer class that wants to go out to drink, dine, dance and date. Their parents, politicians and police -- and their more conservative and often poorer peers -- want to stiff-arm change.

"Parents are really strict in India, I'd be hung if mine knew I was here," says Lorraine Pereira, 32, a Taika regular and call-center employee who pitches refinancing packages to Americans while most of India sleeps.

The clash is on vivid display in Bangalore. In less than a decade, it has changed from a sleepy college and retirement town to a buzzing city with cafes, clubs and epic traffic jams.

The new law is part of a broader crackdown. Since the southern city started enforcing the "Licensing and Controlling of Public Entertainment (Bangalore City) Order" in July, the police have been roaming the city and closing down bars, cabarets and establishments with live bands and dancing girls. Under the new order, discos are treated like bars promoting prostitution.

"The legislature was worried that such places are corrupting the minds of the young," says Kishore Chandra, a police commissioner in Bangalore. "A lot of undesirable actions may be going on."

He says Bangalore is dealing with new ailments of affluence. For the first time, the police have had to deal with kids drag racing their new motorcycles at night. Cellphone thefts have surged as have break-ins among the new apartments sprouting on the edge of town.

The new entertainment order doesn't actually ban dancing, but it introduces tough licensing requirements that make it nearly impossible to have a business that has both drinking and dancing. Since the law went into effect, no licenses have been issued despite more than 60 applications, says Mr. Chandra. He admits the tough safety, building and lighting requirements will mean most places will be rejected and have to close.

Bangalore has seen anti-westernization campaigns before. In 1995, there were riots when the first KFC opened in the city. The American chain was trashed by local farmers and Hindu nationalists. Riots broke out again the following year when the Ms. World contest came here. More than 1,500 protesters were arrested and one set himself on fire. Contestants had to wear sheer skirts over their swimwear.

Bangalore's club owners and managers say they are being harassed. Police officers rush into their clubs at 11:30, bang on the tables with their long bamboo night sticks and berate customers. The more forgiving owners say that it is partly a misunderstanding: Police assume discos are akin to dance bars where girls in bright dresses twirl to Bollywood hits as men throw money at them.

"We are looked on as if we were criminals," says Mr. Biswas, who has been dragged downtown five times for being open late. "These guys don't know anything about this life; I offered one officer a glass of red wine and he wanted it mixed with soda water."

Club owners and goers are fighting back. Some club managers look the other way if their customers start moving to the music. They post lookouts to tell the DJ to stop the music when the police approach. Owners have banded to form the Bangalore Resto-Lounge and Discotheque Owners Association to lobby their cause.

"Being 'Bangalored' meant losing jobs from London or Boston to the outsourcing revolution," says a chain email from clubbing crusader and Bangalore advertising executive Harish Bijoor. "Today 'being Bangalored' means being left high and dry at the end of a long working day with nowhere to go."

Some of the club kids have offered to show their support by cruising the main drag to noisily protest the ban. The association stopped them, worried they'd be arrested for drunk driving. Others have started private parties in farmhouses outside of the city limits to keep the party rocking.

At Taika, a dejected Mr. Biswas told the DJ to turn off the music over the protests of the Saturday night crowd. He got on the microphone to tell people he is trying to fight the new order. "Please bring out your thoughts and comments," he said, referring to a petition circulating around the club. "But please don't write vulgarities we cannot present to the state assembly."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113131293070989504.html

Saying Goodbye California Sun, Hello Midwest

A growing number of people are leaving California after a decade of soaring home prices, according to separate data from the Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service and the state's finance department.

Last year, a half million people left California for other parts of the United States, while fewer than 400,000 Americans moved there. The net outflow has risen fivefold, to more than 100,000, since 2001, an analysis by Economy.com, a research company, shows, although immigration from other countries and births have kept the state's population growing.

The number of people leaving Boston, New York and Washington is also rising, and skyrocketing house prices appear to be a major reason, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. From New York, the net migration to Philadelphia more than doubled between 2001 and 2004, with 11,500 more people leaving New York for Philadelphia last year than vice versa. The number of New Yorkers who have moved to Albany, Charlotte, N.C., and Allentown, Pa., among other places, has also increased sharply.

But the change seems most pronounced in California, which has long been a beacon that draws people from all over the country, with its sun-drenched coasts and dynamic economy. Popular culture has reinforced that image, with fictional characters from the Joads of "The Grapes of Wrath" to the Beverly Hillbillies coming to the state.

Today, however, the same factors that have made California so alluring have also made it unaffordable for many young families, retirees and recent immigrants to the United States. Some are heading to fast-growing cities like Las Vegas, as they have been for decades. But even less-glamorous destinations, like the Rust Belt and Texas, are on the receiving end of the migration.

The last few years appear to be one of the few times on record that California has lost domestic population when its job market was as healthy as the rest of the country's, economists and demographers said.

"People are saying, 'Even though I have to take a 10 percent wage cut to go to Vegas or Phoenix, it's actually a wage increase,' " said Ross C. DeVol, the director of regional economics at the Milken Institute, a research group in Santa Monica, Calif. "They look at what housing costs here, and they're making decisions to go elsewhere."

Tough rules slash asylum in Denmark

Hvedstrup’s woes are a side effect of rules dating from 2002. The rules are also part of a concerted government effort to reduce the number of Turks and other members of Denmark’s 500,000-strong ethnic minorities who take husbands and wives from their country of origin, often in marriages forced on them by their parents.

“The largest beneficiaries of our ‘24-year-old rule’ are young Muslim girls,” said Rikke Hvilshoj, who became immigration minister after Fogh Rasmussen’s government was re-elected in February. “Arranged and forced marriages are a problem. This rule means we can make sure that the young have time to get an education.”

Conditions have been made harder for asylum seekers too. Benefits have been cut to levels 15%-20% below those paid to Danes, while many of those given the right to stay do not obtain permanent residence until they have waited for seven years. They can be deported in the meantime if the situation in their homeland is deemed to have improved.

The Danish example is already being followed in Holland, another once-liberal country where politics have been dominated by asylum, immigration and integration since the murder of Pim Fortuyn, the populist anti-immigration politician, in 2002.

The Dutch government tightened the rules on immigration last November, introducing a “21-year-old” rule on marriages. Despite signs of a growing liberal backlash, it is also pushing ahead with the gradual expulsion of 26,000 asylum seekers whose applications have been rejected.

Britain’s Home Office — concerned about forced marriages among some British Asians — has said it is also studying suggestions that both partners in marriages involving someone from outside the EU should be over 21.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-1562672,00.html

Jihad Against Danish Newspaper

And people ask why muslims cannot be integrated into europe? The ambassadors of the 11 countries are so jobless that they have time to send letters to the newspaper?
 
A message to those 11 fucking ambassadors: how bout furthering democracy in your own country before bitching about muhammed to a newspaper?
 
But the Europeans are too pussy footed. They are not bringing out the army against the rioters in France, they are not taking action against those who protested against this Danish newspaper.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Islam is no laughing matter. The Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten is being protected by security guards and several cartoonists have gone into hiding after the newspaper published a series of twelve cartoons (view them here) about the prophet Muhammad. According to the Islam it is blasphemous to make images of the prophet. Muslim fundamentalists have threatened to bomb the paper’s offices and kill the cartoonists.
 
The newspaper published the cartoons when a Danish author complained that he could find no-one to illustrate his book about Muhammad. Jyllands-Posten wondered whether there were more cases of self-censorship regarding Islam in Denmark and asked twelve illustrators to draw the prophet for them. Carsten Juste, the paper’s editor, said the cartoons were a test of whether the threat of Islamic terrorism had limited the freedom of expression in Denmark.
 
The publication led to outrage among the Muslim immigrants living in Denmark. 5,000 of them took to the streets to protest. Muslim organisations have demanded an apology, but Juste rejects this idea: “We live in a democracy. That’s why we can use all the journalistic methods we want to. Satire is accepted in this country, and you can make caricatures,” he said. The Danish imam Raed Hlayhel reacted with the statement: “This type of democracy is worthless for Muslims. Muslims will never accept this kind of humiliation. The article has insulted every Muslim in the world.”
 
Flemming Rose, the cultural editor at the newspaper, denied that the purpose had been to provoke Muslims. It was simply a re